The weather evolves in a probabilistic manner based on many factors from one day to the next. Consider the following scenario for the weather in a certain location: The probability of rain tomorrow is 0.6 if it is raining today. The probability of its being clear (no rain) tomorrow is 0.8 if it is clear today. Assume today is Day 0 is Monday, and it’s clear. Also, assume the weather conditions (probabilities of rain and no rain) stay the same for the whole planning period. Build simulation models to answer the following questions: (a) When it is expected to have a clear weekend (Saturday and Sunday)? (b) When it is expected to have two consecutive clear weekends? (c) What is the expected number of rainy days in the first 30 days? State all your assumptions and show the steps of your analysis
The weather evolves in a probabilistic manner based on many factors from one day to the next. Consider the following scenario for the weather in a certain location: The probability of rain tomorrow is 0.6 if it is raining today. The probability of its being clear (no rain) tomorrow is 0.8 if it is clear today. Assume today is Day 0 is Monday, and it’s clear. Also, assume the weather conditions (probabilities of rain and no rain) stay the same for the whole planning period. Build simulation models to answer the following questions:
(a) When it is expected to have a clear weekend (Saturday and Sunday)?
(b) When it is expected to have two consecutive clear weekends?
(c) What is the expected number of rainy days in the first 30 days? State all your assumptions and show the steps of your analysis
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