Cliff Colby wants to determine whether his South Japanoil field will yield oil. He has hired geologist Digger Barnesto run tests on the field. If there is oil in the field, there is a95% chance that Digger’s tests will indicate oil. If the fieldcontains no oil, there is a 5% chance that Digger’s tests willindicate oil. If Digger’s tests indicate that there is no oil inthe field, what is the probability that the field contains oil?Before Digger conducts the test, Cliff believes that there isa 10% chance that the field will yield oil.
Cliff Colby wants to determine whether his South Japanoil field will yield oil. He has hired geologist Digger Barnesto run tests on the field. If there is oil in the field, there is a95% chance that Digger’s tests will indicate oil. If the fieldcontains no oil, there is a 5% chance that Digger’s tests willindicate oil. If Digger’s tests indicate that there is no oil inthe field, what is the probability that the field contains oil?Before Digger conducts the test, Cliff believes that there isa 10% chance that the field will yield oil.
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Question
Cliff Colby wants to determine whether his South Japan
oil field will yield oil. He has hired geologist Digger Barnes
to run tests on the field. If there is oil in the field, there is a
95% chance that Digger’s tests will indicate oil. If the field
contains no oil, there is a 5% chance that Digger’s tests willindicate oil. If Digger’s tests indicate that there is no oil in
the field, what is the probability that the field contains oil?
Before Digger conducts the test, Cliff believes that there is
a 10% chance that the field will yield oil.
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