The number of heart surgeries performed at a hospital has increased over the past several years. The hospital’s administration is seeking the best method to forecast the demand for such surgeries in Year 6. The data for the past five years is shown. Year Demand 1 130 2 139 3 135 4 144 5 141 The hospital is considering the following forecasting methods. Compare the performance of these methods using the mean squared error (MSE). Begin error measurements in year 3 so all methods are compared for the same years. Exponential smoothing, with α = 0.5. let the initial forecast for year 1= 130, the same as the actual demand. Two-year simple moving average Two-year weighted moving average, using weights 0.7 and 0.3, with more recent data given more weight. Solve this problem on a separate paper. Then, use the results to complete the tables provided below, save the file and then submit it on E-learning. 1- Exponential smoothing: Year Forecast Forecast error (E) E2 3 134 4 139 5 140 MSE 2- Two-year simple moving average: Year Forecast Forecast error (E) E2 3 4 5 MSE 3- Two-year weighted moving average: Year Forecast Forecast error (E) E2 3 4 5 MSE 4- The best forecasting method

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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The number of heart surgeries performed at a hospital has increased over the past several years. The hospital’s administration is seeking the best method to forecast the demand for such surgeries in Year 6. The data for the past five years is shown.

Year	Demand
1	130
2	139
3	135
4	144
5	141

The hospital is considering the following forecasting methods. Compare the performance of these methods using the mean squared error (MSE). Begin error measurements in year 3 so all methods are compared for the same years.

Exponential smoothing, with α = 0.5. let the initial forecast for year 1= 130, the same as the actual demand.
Two-year simple moving average
Two-year weighted moving average, using weights 0.7 and 0.3, with more recent data given more weight.

Solve this problem on a separate paper. Then, use the results to complete the tables provided below, save the file and then submit it on E-learning.

1- Exponential smoothing:

Year	Forecast	Forecast error (E)	E²
3	134
4	139
5	140

MSE

2- Two-year simple moving average:

Year	Forecast	Forecast error (E)	E²
3
4
5

MSE

3- Two-year weighted moving average:

Year	Forecast	Forecast error (E)	E²
3
4
5

MSE

The best forecasting method

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