The Instant Paper Clip Office Supply Company sells and delivers office supplies to companies, schools, and agencies within a 50-mile radius of its warehouse. The office supply business is competitive, and the ability to deliver orders promptly is a big factor in getting new customers and maintaining old ones. (Offices typically order not when they run low on supplies, but when they completely run out. As a result, they need their orders immediately.) The manager of the company wants to be certain that enough drivers and vehicles are available to deliver orders promptly and that they have adequate inventory in stock. Therefore, the manager wants to be able to forecast the demand for deliveries during the next month. From the records of previous orders, management has accumulated the following data for the past 10 months:   Month Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Orders 145 70 115 85 120 54 82 141 123 94 Compute the mean absolute deviation and mean squared error for June through October for each of the methods used. Which method would be best for you use to forecast demand?

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The Instant Paper Clip Office Supply Company sells and delivers office supplies to companies, schools, and agencies within a 50-mile radius of its warehouse. The office supply business is competitive, and the ability to deliver orders promptly is a big factor in getting new customers and maintaining old ones. (Offices typically order not when they run low on supplies, but when they completely run out. As a result, they need their orders immediately.) The manager of the company wants to be certain that enough drivers and vehicles are available to deliver orders promptly and that they have adequate inventory in stock. Therefore, the manager wants to be able to forecast the demand for deliveries during the next month. From the records of previous orders, management has accumulated the following data for the past 10 months:

 

Month

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Orders

145

70

115

85

120

54

82

141

123

94

  1. Compute the mean absolute deviation and mean squared error for June through October for each of the methods used. Which method would be best for you use to forecast demand?
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