Texas Petroleum Company is a producer of crude oil that is considering two drilling projects with the following profit outcomes and associated probabilities: Drilling Project, A Profit -$300,000 100,000 500,000 600,000 Probability (percent) 10 60 20 10 Drilling Project, B Profit -$600,000 100,000 300,000 1,000,000 The manager's attitude toward risk is as follows: Profit ($'000) -600 -300 100 U(II) 0.00 0.05 0.20 Note: U(II) stands for utility index of profit. 300 0.30 500 0.45 Probability (percent) 15 25 40 20 600 0.55 1,000 1.00 In making decision under risk, which project will be chosen by the manager of Texas Petroleum Company based on his behaviour toward risk? Also describe the manager's ways of handling decision-making associate with risk. Justify your answers using numerical explanation.
Texas Petroleum Company is a producer of crude oil that is considering two drilling projects with the following profit outcomes and associated probabilities: Drilling Project, A Profit -$300,000 100,000 500,000 600,000 Probability (percent) 10 60 20 10 Drilling Project, B Profit -$600,000 100,000 300,000 1,000,000 The manager's attitude toward risk is as follows: Profit ($'000) -600 -300 100 U(II) 0.00 0.05 0.20 Note: U(II) stands for utility index of profit. 300 0.30 500 0.45 Probability (percent) 15 25 40 20 600 0.55 1,000 1.00 In making decision under risk, which project will be chosen by the manager of Texas Petroleum Company based on his behaviour toward risk? Also describe the manager's ways of handling decision-making associate with risk. Justify your answers using numerical explanation.
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
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Transcribed Image Text:Texas Petroleum Company is a producer of crude oil that is considering two drilling
projects with the following profit outcomes and associated probabilities:
Drilling Project, A
Profit
-$300,000
100,000
500,000
600,000
Probability
(percent)
10
60
20
10
Drilling Project, B
Profit
-$600,000
100,000
300,000
1,000,000
The manager's attitude toward risk is as follows:
Profit ($'000)
-600
-300
100
U(II)
0.00
0.05
0.20
Note: U(II) stands for utility index of profit.
300
0.30
500
0.45
Probability
(percent)
15
25
40
20
600
0.55
1,000
1.00
In making decision under risk, which project will be chosen by the manager of Texas
Petroleum Company based on his behaviour toward risk? Also describe the manager's
ways of handling decision-making associate with risk. Justify your answers using
numerical explanation.
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