table 3 gives the actual sales, log of sales, and changes in the log of sales of Cisco Systems for the period 1Q:2001 to 4Q:2001. 10. a. having an out-of-sample rMSe of 20 percent. The ar(1) model for the civilian unemployment rate, Δuert = −0.0405 − 0.4674Δuert −1, was developed with five years of data. what would be the drawback to using the ar(1) model to predict changes in the civilian unemployment rate 12 months or more ahead, as compared with one month ahead? table 3 Date Quarter: year 1Q:2001 2Q:2001 3Q:2001 4Q:2001 1Q:2002 2Q:2002 actual Sales ($ Millions) 6,519 6,748 4,728 4,298 log of Sales 8.7825 8.8170 8.4613 8.3659 Changes in log of Sales Δln (Salest) 0.1308 0.0345 −0.3557 −0.0954 Forecast the first- and second-quarter sales of Cisco Systems for 2002 using the regression Δln (Salest) = 0.0661 + 0.4698Δln (Salest −1)
table 3 gives the actual sales, log of sales, and changes in the log of sales of Cisco Systems for the period 1Q:2001 to 4Q:2001. 10. a. having an out-of-sample rMSe of 20 percent. The ar(1) model for the civilian unemployment rate, Δuert = −0.0405 − 0.4674Δuert −1, was developed with five years of data. what would be the drawback to using the ar(1) model to predict changes in the civilian unemployment rate 12 months or more ahead, as compared with one month ahead? table 3 Date Quarter: year 1Q:2001 2Q:2001 3Q:2001 4Q:2001 1Q:2002 2Q:2002 actual Sales ($ Millions) 6,519 6,748 4,728 4,298 log of Sales 8.7825 8.8170 8.4613 8.3659 Changes in log of Sales Δln (Salest) 0.1308 0.0345 −0.3557 −0.0954 Forecast the first- and second-quarter sales of Cisco Systems for 2002 using the regression Δln (Salest) = 0.0661 + 0.4698Δln (Salest −1).
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