A convenience store recently started to carry a new brand of soft drink. Management is interested in estimating future sales volume to determine whether it should continue to carry the new brand or replace it with another brand. The following table provides the number of cans sold per week. Use both the trend projection with regression and the exponential smoothing (letα=0.4with an initial forecast for week 1 of581)methods to forecast demand for week13.Compare these methods by using the mean absolute deviation and mean absolute percent error performance criteria. Does your analysis suggest that sales are trending and if so, by how much? Period123456789101112Sales581623640731668613759696763724659759Part 2(i) Obtain the trend projection with regression forecast. The forecast for week13isenter your response here.(Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.) part 2. The number of heart surgeries performed at Heartville General Hospital has increased steadily over the past several years. The hospital's administration is seeking the best method to forecast the demand for such surgeries in year 6. The data for the past five years are shown below. Year12345Demand4347515762 The hospital's administration is considering the following forecasting methods. Begin error measurement in year 3, so all methods are compared for the same years. i.Exponential smoothing, withα= 0.6. Let the initial forecast for year 1 be43,the same as the actual demand.ii.Exponential smoothing, withα= 0.9. Let the initial forecast for year 1 be43,the same as the actual demand.iii.Trend projection with regression.iv.Two-year moving average.v.Two-year weighted moving average, using weights 0.6 and 0.4, with the more recent data given more weight.Part 2IfMADLOADING...is the performance criterion chosen by the administration, which forecasting method should it choose?▼part 3.The manager of Alaina's Garden Center must make the annual purchasing plans for rakes, gloves, and other gardening items. One of the items the company stocks is Fast-Grow, a liquid fertilizer. The sales of this item are seasonal, with peaks in the spring, summer, and fall months. Quarterly demand (in cases) for the past two years is as follows: QuarterYear 1Year 214164234344332883324203281Total8751,120 If the expected sales for Fast-Grow are1,281cases for year 3, use the multiplicative seasonal method to prepare a forecast for each quarter of the year. (Round all intermediate calculations to three decimal places.)Part 2The first quarter forecast isenter your response herecases. (Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.) part 4.The manager of a utility company in the Texas panhandle wants to develop quarterly forecasts of power loads for the next year. The power loads are seasonal, and the data on the quarterly loads in megawatts (MW) for the last four years are as follows: QuarterYear 1Year 2Year 3Year 41100.996.4123.8109.72126.1116.3158.7132.63142.3135.4162.3152.44163.2159.6178.4169.0 The manager estimates the total demand for the next year at683MW. Use the multiplicative seasonal method to develop the forecast for each quarter. (Round all intermediate calculations to three decimal places.)Part 2The first quarter forecast isenter your response hereMW. (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.)

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A convenience store recently started to carry a new brand of soft drink. Management is interested in estimating future sales volume to determine whether it should continue to carry the new brand or replace it with another brand. The following table provides the number of cans sold per week. Use both the trend projection with regression and the exponential smoothing (let α=0.4 with an initial forecast for week 1 of 581) methods to forecast demand for week 13. Compare these methods by using the mean absolute deviation and mean absolute percent error performance criteria. Does your analysis suggest that sales are trending and if so, by how much? Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Sales 581 623 640 731 668 613 759 696 763 724 659 759 Part 2 (i) Obtain the trend projection with regression forecast. The forecast for week 13 is enter your response here. (Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.)

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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Part 2

(i) Obtain the trend projection with regression forecast.

The forecast for week

enter your response here.

(Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.)

part 2.

The number of heart surgeries performed at Heartville General Hospital has increased steadily over the past several years. The hospital's administration is seeking the best method to forecast the demand for such surgeries in year 6. The data for the past five years are shown below.

Year	1	2	3	4	5
Demand	43	47	51	57	62

The hospital's administration is considering the following forecasting methods. Begin error measurement in year 3, so all methods are compared for the same years.

i.	Exponential smoothing, with α = 0.6. Let the initial forecast for year 1 be 43, the same as the actual demand.
ii.	Exponential smoothing, with α = 0.9. Let the initial forecast for year 1 be 43, the same as the actual demand.
iii.	Trend projection with regression.
iv.	Two-year moving average.
v.	Two-year weighted moving average, using weights 0.6 and 0.4, with the more recent data given more weight.

Part 2

MAD

is the performance criterion chosen by the administration, which forecasting method should it choose?

▼

part 3.

The manager of Alaina's Garden Center must make the annual purchasing plans for rakes, gloves, and other gardening items. One of the items the company stocks is Fast-Grow, a liquid fertilizer. The sales of this item are seasonal, with peaks in the spring, summer, and fall months. Quarterly demand (in cases) for the past two years is as follows:

Quarter	Year 1	Year 2
1	41	64
2	343	443
3	288	332
4	203	281
Total	875	1,120

If the expected sales for Fast-Grow are

1,281

cases for year 3, use the multiplicative seasonal method to prepare a forecast for each quarter of the year. (Round all intermediate calculations to three decimal places.)

Part 2

The first quarter forecast is

enter your response here

cases. (Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.)

part 4.

The manager of a utility company in the Texas panhandle wants to develop quarterly forecasts of power loads for the next year. The power loads are seasonal, and the data on the quarterly loads in megawatts (MW) for the last four years are as follows:

Quarter	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4
1	100.9	96.4	123.8	109.7
2	126.1	116.3	158.7	132.6
3	142.3	135.4	162.3	152.4
4	163.2	159.6	178.4	169.0

The manager estimates the total demand for the next year at

683

MW. Use the multiplicative seasonal method to develop the forecast for each quarter. (Round all intermediate calculations to three decimal places.)

Part 2

The first quarter forecast is

enter your response here

MW. (Enter your response rounded to one decimal place.)

Definition Definition Measure of central tendency that is the average of a given data set. The mean value is evaluated as the quotient of the sum of all observations by the sample size. The mean, in contrast to a median, is affected by extreme values. Very large or very small values can distract the mean from the center of the data. Arithmetic mean: The most common type of mean is the arithmetic mean. It is evaluated using the formula: μ = 1 N ∑ i = 1 N x i Other types of means are the geometric mean, logarithmic mean, and harmonic mean. Geometric mean: The nth root of the product of n observations from a data set is defined as the geometric mean of the set: G = x 1 x 2 ... x n n Logarithmic mean: The difference of the natural logarithms of the two numbers, divided by the difference between the numbers is the logarithmic mean of the two numbers. The logarithmic mean is used particularly in heat transfer and mass transfer. ln x 2 − ln x 1 x 2 − x 1 Harmonic mean: The inverse of the arithmetic mean of the inverses of all the numbers in a data set is the harmonic mean of the data. 1 1 x 1 + 1 x 2 + ...

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Period	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Sales	581	623	640	731	668	613	759	696	763	724	659	759