Suppose you buy an electronic device that you operate continuously. The device costs you $300 and carries a one-year warranty. The warranty states that if the device fails during its first year of use, you get a new device for no cost, and this new device carries exactly the same warranty. However, if it fails after the first year of use, the warranty is of no value. You plan to use this device for the next six years. Therefore, any time the device fails outside its warranty period, you will pay $300 for another device of the same kind. (We assume the price does not increase during the six-year period.) The time until failure for a device is gamma distributed with parameters α = 2 and β = 0.5. (This implies a mean of one year.) Use @RISK to simulate the six-year period. Include as outputs (1) your total cost, (2) the number of failures during the warranty period, and (3) the number of devices you own during the six-year period. Your expected total cost to the nearest $100 is _________, the expected number of failures during warranty to the nearest integer is _____  , and the expected number of devices owned to the nearest integer is _________ .

Operations Research : Applications and Algorithms
4th Edition
ISBN:9780534380588
Author:Wayne L. Winston
Publisher:Wayne L. Winston
Chapter13: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section13.4: Decision Trees
Problem 5P
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Suppose you buy an electronic device that you operate continuously. The device costs you $300 and carries a one-year warranty. The warranty states that if the device fails during its first year of use, you get a new device for no cost, and this new device carries exactly the same warranty. However, if it fails after the first year of use, the warranty is of no value. You plan to use this device for the next six years. Therefore, any time the device fails outside its warranty period, you will pay $300 for another device of the same kind. (We assume the price does not increase during the six-year period.) The time until failure for a device is gamma distributed with parameters α = 2 and β = 0.5. (This implies a mean of one year.) Use @RISK to simulate the six-year period. Include as outputs (1) your total cost, (2) the number of failures during the warranty period, and (3) the number of devices you own during the six-year period. Your expected total cost to the nearest $100 is _________, the expected number of failures during warranty to the nearest integer is _____  , and the expected number of devices owned to the nearest integer is _________ .

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