Suppose there are two full bowls of cookies. Bowl number one has 20 chocolate chip and 30 oatmeal, while bowl number two has 30 chocolate chip cookies and 20 oatmeal cookies. Our friend Bob picks a bowl at random, and then picks a cookie at random. We may assume there is no reason to believe Bob treats one bowl differently from another, likewise for the cookies. The cookie turns out to be a chocolate chip one. How probable is it that Bob picked it out of bowl number two?

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