Question 4) Consider a decision analysis problem whose payoffs (in units of thousands of euros) are given by the following payoff table: State of Nature ernative 80 25 50 30 A 60 40 Prior probability 0.41 0.59 a) Which alternative should be chosen under the maximin payoff criterion? b) Which alternative should be chosen under the maximum likelihood criterion? c) Which alternative should be chosen under Bayes' decision rule? d) Using Bayes' decision rule, do sensitivity analysis graphically with respect to the prior probabilities to determine the crossover points where the decision shifts from one alternative to another. e) Use algebra to solve for the crossover points identified in part (d).

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Course name: Stochastic models 

Question 4)
Consider a decision analysis problem whose payoffs (in units of thousands of euros) are given
by the following payoff table:
State of Nature
Alternative
A1
Az
A
80
25
50
30
60
40
Prior probability
0.41
0.59
a) Which alternative should be chosen under the maximin payoff criterion?
b) Which alternative should be chosen under the maximum likelihood criterion?
c) Which alternative should be chosen under Bayes' decision rule?
d) Using Bayes' decision rule, do sensitivity analysis graphically with respect to the prior
probabilities to determine the crossover points where the decision shifts from one
alternative to another.
e) Use algebra to solve for the crossover points identified in part (d).
Transcribed Image Text:Question 4) Consider a decision analysis problem whose payoffs (in units of thousands of euros) are given by the following payoff table: State of Nature Alternative A1 Az A 80 25 50 30 60 40 Prior probability 0.41 0.59 a) Which alternative should be chosen under the maximin payoff criterion? b) Which alternative should be chosen under the maximum likelihood criterion? c) Which alternative should be chosen under Bayes' decision rule? d) Using Bayes' decision rule, do sensitivity analysis graphically with respect to the prior probabilities to determine the crossover points where the decision shifts from one alternative to another. e) Use algebra to solve for the crossover points identified in part (d).
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