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Professor Hong and his friend John and Sarah Connor are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in. Assume that the payoffs represent their level of death and dismemberment for each activity under the various possibilities for sentient cybernet organisms they may encounter. They have no idea which of the terminators, the T-X the T-1000, or the T-100, they might encounter on their outing. T-X T-1000 | T-100 Picnic 100 150 200 Rappelling 150 125 50 Disable Skynet 75 100 125 (1) Use maximax, maximin, minimax regret, Hurwitz (alpha = 0.3), and equally like methods to come up with a vacation place for Professor Hong. Show all your wo and include your regret table. (2) If the group is optimistic, what decision should they make? (3) If the group is pessimistic, what decision will they make? (4) If the group chooses to minimize their maximum regret, what activity will they choose?

Professor Hong and his friend John and Sarah Connor are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in. Assume that the payoffs represent their level of death and dismemberment for each activity under the various possibilities for sentient cybernet organisms they may encounter. They have no idea which of the terminators, the T-X the T-1000, or the T-100, they might encounter on their outing. T-X T-1000 | T-100 Picnic 100 150 200 Rappelling 150 125 50 Disable Skynet 75 100 125 (1) Use maximax, maximin, minimax regret, Hurwitz (alpha = 0.3), and equally like methods to come up with a vacation place for Professor Hong. Show all your wo and include your regret table. (2) If the group is optimistic, what decision should they make? (3) If the group is pessimistic, what decision will they make? (4) If the group chooses to minimize their maximum regret, what activity will they choose?

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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4. Professor Hong and his friend John and Sarah Connor are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in. Assume that the payoffs represent their level of death and dismemberment for each activity under the various possibilities for sentient cybernetic organisms they may encounter. They have no idea which of the terminators, the T-X, the T-1000, or the T-100, they might encounter on their outing. T-X T-1000 | T-100 Picnic 100 150 200 Rappelling 150 125 50 Disable Skynet 75 100 125 (1) Use maximax, maximin, minimax regret, Hurwitz (alpha = 0.3), and equally likely methods to come up with a vacation place for Professor Hong. Show all your work and include your regret table. (2) If the group is optimistic, what decision should they make? (3) If the group is pessimistic, what decision will they make? (4) If the group chooses to minimize their maximum regret, what activity will they choose? (5) If the group is neither optimistic or pessimistic, what decision will they make?
Transcribed Image Text:4. Professor Hong and his friend John and Sarah Connor are planning a recreational outing and have constructed the following payoff table to help them decide which activity to engage in. Assume that the payoffs represent their level of death and dismemberment for each activity under the various possibilities for sentient cybernetic organisms they may encounter. They have no idea which of the terminators, the T-X, the T-1000, or the T-100, they might encounter on their outing. T-X T-1000 | T-100 Picnic 100 150 200 Rappelling 150 125 50 Disable Skynet 75 100 125 (1) Use maximax, maximin, minimax regret, Hurwitz (alpha = 0.3), and equally likely methods to come up with a vacation place for Professor Hong. Show all your work and include your regret table. (2) If the group is optimistic, what decision should they make? (3) If the group is pessimistic, what decision will they make? (4) If the group chooses to minimize their maximum regret, what activity will they choose? (5) If the group is neither optimistic or pessimistic, what decision will they make?
(6) If the probabilities of the T-X, T-1000, and T-100 are 0.2, 0.4, and 0.4, respectively, then what decision should be made using the expected value criterion? (7) If the probabilities of the T-X, T-1000, and T-100 are 0.2, 0.4, and 0.4 respectively, then what is the EVPI for this situation?
Transcribed Image Text:(6) If the probabilities of the T-X, T-1000, and T-100 are 0.2, 0.4, and 0.4, respectively, then what decision should be made using the expected value criterion? (7) If the probabilities of the T-X, T-1000, and T-100 are 0.2, 0.4, and 0.4 respectively, then what is the EVPI for this situation?
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