Problems 2 Helen Murvis, hospital administrator for Portland General Hospital, is trying to determine whether to build a large wing onto the existing hospital, a small wing, or no wing at all. If the population of Portland continues to grow, a large wing could return $150,000 to the hospital each year. If the small wing were built, it would return $60,000 to the hospital each year if the population continues to grow. If the population of Portland remains the same, the hospital would encounter a loss of $85,000 if the large wing were built. Furthermore, a loss of $45,000 would be realized if the small wing were constructed and the population remains the same. Unfortunately, Helen does not have any information about the future population of Portland Develop a decision table for this problem. Determine the best decision using the following decision criteria 1. Maximax 2. Maximin 3. Minimax Regret 4. Hurwicz (use a coefficient of realism of 0.75) Equal likelihood 5. 6. Expected Value 7. Expected Opportunity loss 8. Develop a decision tree with expected values at the probability nodes. Calculate the EVPI 9

Practical Management Science
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ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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Problems 2
Helen Murvis, hospital administrator for Portland General Hospital, is trying to determine whether to
build a large wing onto the existing hospital, a small wing, or no wing at all. If the population of
Portland continues to grow, a large wing could return $150,000 to the hospital each year. If the small
wing were built, it would return S$60,000 to the hospital each year if the population continues to grow. If
the population of Portland remains the same, the hospital would encounter a loss of $85,000 if the large
wing were built. Furthermore, a loss of $45,000 would be realized if the small wing were constructed
and the population remains the same. Unfortunately, Helen does not have any information about the
future population of Portland
* Develop a decision table for this problem.
* Determine the best decision using the following decision criteria
1.
Мaximax
2. Маximin
3. Minimax Regret
Hurwicz (use a coefficient of realism of 0.75)
5. Equal likelihood
6. Expected Value
7. Expected Opportunity loss
8. Develop a decision tree with expected values at the probability nodes.
9. Calculate the EVPI.
Transcribed Image Text:Problems 2 Helen Murvis, hospital administrator for Portland General Hospital, is trying to determine whether to build a large wing onto the existing hospital, a small wing, or no wing at all. If the population of Portland continues to grow, a large wing could return $150,000 to the hospital each year. If the small wing were built, it would return S$60,000 to the hospital each year if the population continues to grow. If the population of Portland remains the same, the hospital would encounter a loss of $85,000 if the large wing were built. Furthermore, a loss of $45,000 would be realized if the small wing were constructed and the population remains the same. Unfortunately, Helen does not have any information about the future population of Portland * Develop a decision table for this problem. * Determine the best decision using the following decision criteria 1. Мaximax 2. Маximin 3. Minimax Regret Hurwicz (use a coefficient of realism of 0.75) 5. Equal likelihood 6. Expected Value 7. Expected Opportunity loss 8. Develop a decision tree with expected values at the probability nodes. 9. Calculate the EVPI.
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