Peter Martin will help his brother who wants to open a grocery store. Peter initially believes there is a 50-50 chance that his brother's food store will be successful. Peter is considering doing market research. Based on historical data, there is a 0.8 probability that the market research will be favorable given a successful store. Furthermore, there is a 0.7 probability that the market research will be unfavorable given an unsuccessful store. a) If the market research is favorable, what is Peter's revised probability of a successful store for his brother? b) If the market survey is unfavorable, what is Peter's revised probability of a successful store for his brother? c) If the initial probability of a successful store is 0.60 (instead of 0.50), find the probabilities of (a) and (b).

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Peter Martin will help his brother who wants to open a grocery store. Peter initially believes there is a 50-50 chance that his brother's food store will be successful. Peter is considering doing market research. Based on historical data, there is a 0.8 probability that the market research will be favorable given a successful store. Furthermore, there is a 0.7 probability that the market research will be unfavorable given an unsuccessful store.


a) If the market research is favorable, what is Peter's revised probability of a successful store for his brother?
b) If the market survey is unfavorable, what is Peter's revised probability of a successful store for his brother?
c) If the initial probability of a successful store is 0.60 (instead of 0.50), find the probabilities of (a) and (b).

 

 

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