a) Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? The data appear to follow a trend pattern.The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern.The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. (b) Develop three-month and four-month moving averages for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Month Time Series Value 3-Month Moving Average Forecast 4-Month Moving Average Forecast 1 9.5 2 9.4 3 9.5 4 9.7 5 9.8 6 9.8 7 9.9 8 10.6 9 10.0 10 9.8 11 9.7 12 9.7 Does the three-month or four-month moving average provide the better forecasts based on MSE? Explain. The four-month moving average provides more accurate forecasts, because its MSE is smaller than that of the three-month moving average.The three-month moving average provides more accurate forecasts, because its MSE is smaller than that of the four-month moving average. The four-month moving average provides more accurate forecasts, because its MSE is larger than that of the three-month moving average.The three-month moving average provides more accurate forecasts, because its MSE is larger than that of the four-month moving average. (c) Using the more accurate approach, what is the moving average forecast for the next month? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models

Problem 29P: The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building...

See similar textbooks

Related questions

Question

Corporate triple-A bond interest rates for 12 consecutive months are as follows.

9.5

9.4

9.5

9.7

9.8

9.9

10.6

10.0

9.8

9.7

(a)

Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?

The data appear to follow a trend pattern.The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern.The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern.

(b)

Develop three-month and four-month moving averages for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.)

Month	Time Series Value	3-Month Moving Average Forecast	4-Month Moving Average Forecast
1	9.5
2	9.4
3	9.5
4	9.7
5	9.8
6	9.8
7	9.9
8	10.6
9	10.0
10	9.8
11	9.7
12	9.7

Does the three-month or four-month moving average provide the better forecasts based on MSE? Explain.

The four-month moving average provides more accurate forecasts, because its MSE is smaller than that of the three-month moving average.The three-month moving average provides more accurate forecasts, because its MSE is smaller than that of the four-month moving average. The four-month moving average provides more accurate forecasts, because its MSE is larger than that of the three-month moving average.The three-month moving average provides more accurate forecasts, because its MSE is larger than that of the four-month moving average.

(c)

Using the more accurate approach, what is the moving average forecast for the next month? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

Expert Solution

Trending now

This is a popular solution!

Step by step

Solved in 5 steps with 5 images

SEE SOLUTION Check out a sample Q&A here