, NDE was used to detect defects in steel castings. (JOM, May 2005.) Assume that the probability that NDE detects a “hit” (i.e., predicts a defect in a steel casting) when, in fact, a defect exists is .97. (This is often called the probability of detection.) Also assume that the probability that NDE detects a “hit” when, in fact, no defect exists is .005. (This is called the probability of a false call.) Past experience has shown that a defect occurs once in every 100 steel castings. If NDE detects a “hit” for a particular steel casting, what is the probability that an actual defect exists?
Nondestructive evaluation: Nondestructive evaluation (NDE) describes methods
that quantitatively characterize materials, tissues, and structures by noninvasive
means such as X-ray computed tomography, ultrasonics, and acoustic emission.
Recently, NDE was used to detect defects in steel castings. (JOM, May 2005.)
Assume that the probability that NDE detects a “hit” (i.e., predicts a defect in a steel
casting) when, in fact, a defect exists is .97. (This is often called the probability of
detection.) Also assume that the probability that NDE detects a “hit” when, in fact,
no defect exists is .005. (This is called the probability of a false call.) Past experience
has shown that a defect occurs once in every 100 steel castings. If NDE detects a
“hit” for a particular steel casting, what is the probability that an actual defect
exists?
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