My problem asks me to Forecast using a "simple 4-month moving average" but when I calcualte that, I get a Forecast for November of 1750. This is exactly 125 off of the answer given in the problem. I am wondering if the answer lies in an Additive Seasonal variation of 125 to the regular forecast of part a. But I am uncertain if I am doing that math correctly. I am looking for understanding of how to solve the problem that will arrive at the answers contained in the presented information. I would be greatful for an example of how to do this. Here is the problem as it was presented: Historical demand for the best-selling product is provided in the table below: Month Units Sold May 1,500 June 1,400 July 1,800 August 1,500 September 1,900 October November 1,800 ??? Forecasting for November, the logistics manager has calculated (a) the simple 4-month moving average [1875 units] and Mean Absolute Deviation [125 units] and (b) a three-month weighted moving average (weights: 0.50, 0.20, and 0.30) of 1920 units and Mean Absolute Deviation of 247 units. Prove these numbers.
My problem asks me to Forecast using a "simple 4-month moving average" but when I calcualte that, I get a Forecast for November of 1750. This is exactly 125 off of the answer given in the problem. I am wondering if the answer lies in an Additive Seasonal variation of 125 to the regular forecast of part a. But I am uncertain if I am doing that math correctly. I am looking for understanding of how to solve the problem that will arrive at the answers contained in the presented information. I would be greatful for an example of how to do this.
Here is the problem as it was presented:
Historical demand for the best-selling product is provided in the table below:
|
Month |
Units Sold |
|
May |
1,500 |
|
June |
1,400 |
|
July |
1,800 |
|
August |
1,500 |
|
September |
1,900 |
|
October November |
1,800 ??? |
|
|
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