The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows:CASES OFMERLOT WINE276362YEAR20052006200720082009201020112012404462364506416382Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.30, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of 2012. Usethe average demand for 2005 through 2007 as your initial forecast for 2008, and then smooth the forecast forward to 2012. (Roundyour intermediate calculations and final answer to the nearest whole number.)Answer is complete but not entirely correct.Forecast for2012372

Forecasting is a technique that is adopted by every business to make informed decisions about the…

Answered: The number of cases of merlot wine sold…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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A seasonal index for a monthly series is about to be calculated on the basis of the past four years' accumulation of data. The four previous July values were 110, 135, 125, and 130. The four previous total year values were 1440, 1920, 1920, and 2400. Calculate the seasonal index for July If the total-year forecast for next year is 2400. What is the July forecast for next year?
Consider the total production (and sales) of ice cream in Canada (in millions of liters) for the period 1995 until 2007 (from left to right):341, 331, 317, 315, 321, 278, 298, 311, 302, 302, 335, 320, 285Fit a model to ice cream production data using each of the following techniques and forecast the 2008 production in each case. Also, plot the two moving average forecasts and the actual, the two exponential smoothing forecasts and the actual, and the linear trend and the actual (three graphs altogether).a. Two-year moving average.b. Four-year moving average.c. Exponential smoothing with smoothing constant = 0.2.d. Exponential smoothing with smoothing constant = 0.4.e. Linear trend (regression).f. Just by observing the plots, which of the above techniques would you use to forecast the ice cream production and why? (Hint: The plot overall closest to actual demand will be most accurate).g. Alternatively, compute the MAD for each forecasting technique and determine the most accurate…
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