Many different mutations (>1500 to date) in the CFTR gene can cause Cystic Fibrosis (CF). The disease shows allelic heterogeneity and many CF sufferers are compound heterozygotes i.e. they have two different mutations, one in each of their copies of the CFTR gene. ~1 in 25 people in the Australia are carriers for CF. DNA tests are used to detect CF mutations in carriers but it is too expensive to test, or screen for all mutations so only the most common mutations are tested for. A typical CF carrier screen is 90 accurate, i.e. 10% of mutations are missed by the screen. (a) Use Bayes Analysis to calculate the probability that a woman who: a) has no family history of CF; and b) tests negative (negative means no mutation is found) on a muta screen, is a carrier. Give your answers as whole or decimal numbers (to three decimal places). Scenario A woman is a Scenario B woman is not carrier a carrier Prior Probability Cond. Probability Joint probability Posterior probability (b) If this woman's partner is a known carrier for CF, the probability that the couple's first child will have CF (to three decimal places)=

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Many different mutations (>1500 to date) in the CFTR gene can cause Cystic Fibrosis (CF). The disease shows allelic heterogeneity and many CF sufferers are compound
heterozygotes i.e. they have two different mutations, one in each of their copies of the CFTR gene. ~1 in 25 people in the Australia are carriers for CF. DNA tests are used to
detect CF mutations in carriers but it is too expensive to test, or screen for all mutations so only the most common mutations are tested for. A typical CF carrier screen is 90%
accurate, i.e. 10% of mutations are missed by the screen.
(a) Use Bayes Analysis to calculate the probability that a woman who: a) has no family history of CF; and b) tests negative (negative means no mutation is found) on a mutation
screen, is a carrier.
Give your answers as whole or decimal numbers (to three decimal places).
Scenario A woman is a Scenario B woman is not
carrier
a carrier
Prior Probability
Cond. Probability
Joint probability
Posterior
probability
(b) If this woman's partner is a known carrier for CF, the probability that the couple's first child will have CF (to three decimal places)=
Transcribed Image Text:Many different mutations (>1500 to date) in the CFTR gene can cause Cystic Fibrosis (CF). The disease shows allelic heterogeneity and many CF sufferers are compound heterozygotes i.e. they have two different mutations, one in each of their copies of the CFTR gene. ~1 in 25 people in the Australia are carriers for CF. DNA tests are used to detect CF mutations in carriers but it is too expensive to test, or screen for all mutations so only the most common mutations are tested for. A typical CF carrier screen is 90% accurate, i.e. 10% of mutations are missed by the screen. (a) Use Bayes Analysis to calculate the probability that a woman who: a) has no family history of CF; and b) tests negative (negative means no mutation is found) on a mutation screen, is a carrier. Give your answers as whole or decimal numbers (to three decimal places). Scenario A woman is a Scenario B woman is not carrier a carrier Prior Probability Cond. Probability Joint probability Posterior probability (b) If this woman's partner is a known carrier for CF, the probability that the couple's first child will have CF (to three decimal places)=
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