Letz Products has two decisions to make, with the second decision dependent on the outcome of the first. The company intends to build a new plant. Letz has the option of conducting its own marketing research survey for which the results will either be positive or negative. The information from this survey could help it decide whether to build a large plant, to build a small plant, or not to build at all. Letz recognizes that although such a survey will not provide it with perfect information, it may be extremely helpful.     Using figure 1 – explain to your client (Letz) what the above decision tree shows. You are required to show all working.

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
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Letz Products has two decisions to make, with the second decision dependent on the outcome of the first. The company intends to build a new plant. Letz has the option of conducting its own marketing research survey for which the results will either be positive or negative. The information from this survey could help it decide whether to build a large plant, to build a small plant, or not to build at all. Letz recognizes that although such a survey will not provide it with perfect information, it may be extremely helpful.

 

 

Using figure 1 – explain to your client (Letz) what the above decision tree shows. You are required to show all working.

 

1st decision
point
$49,200
Survey
2nd decision point
Sur. Res.
Pos. (45)
Sur. Res
Neg. (55)
No survey
$106,400
$2,400
$40,000
Large plant
Small $63,600
plant 3
No plant
$106,000
Large plant
No plant
Small $2,400
plant 5
Large plant
Small
plant
No plant
-$87,400
$10,000
6
$40,000
Fav. Mkt (0.78)
Unfav. Mkt (0.22)
Fav. Mkt (0.78)
Unfav. Mkt (0.22)
Fav. Mkt (0.27)
Unfav. Mkt (0.73)
Fav. Mkt (0.27)
Unfav. Mkt (0.73)
Fav. Mkt (0.5)
Unfav. Mkt (0.5)
Fav. Mkt (0.5)
Unfav. Mkt (0.5)
$190,000
-$190,000
$90,000
$30,000
$10.000
$190,000
-$190,000
$90,000
$30,000
$10,000
$200,000
-$180,000
$100,000
$20,000
$0
Transcribed Image Text:1st decision point $49,200 Survey 2nd decision point Sur. Res. Pos. (45) Sur. Res Neg. (55) No survey $106,400 $2,400 $40,000 Large plant Small $63,600 plant 3 No plant $106,000 Large plant No plant Small $2,400 plant 5 Large plant Small plant No plant -$87,400 $10,000 6 $40,000 Fav. Mkt (0.78) Unfav. Mkt (0.22) Fav. Mkt (0.78) Unfav. Mkt (0.22) Fav. Mkt (0.27) Unfav. Mkt (0.73) Fav. Mkt (0.27) Unfav. Mkt (0.73) Fav. Mkt (0.5) Unfav. Mkt (0.5) Fav. Mkt (0.5) Unfav. Mkt (0.5) $190,000 -$190,000 $90,000 $30,000 $10.000 $190,000 -$190,000 $90,000 $30,000 $10,000 $200,000 -$180,000 $100,000 $20,000 $0
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