Identify the decision taken under the following approaches: (1) Pessimistic (2) Optimistic (3) Equal probability
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![Q3: The following payoff table shows the profit for a decision problem with five states of
nature (events) and five decision alternatives,
Event
Alternative
1
2
3
4
5
A
100
70
115
95
60
В
95
120
120
90
150
180
130
60
160
120
80
75
50
100
95
E
60
140
100
170
160
Identify the decision taken under the following approaches:
(1) Pessimistic
(2) Optimistic
(3) Equal probability
(4) Regret
(5) Hurwicz criterion.
Note: The decision maker's degree of Pessimistic (a) is 0.2
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- 7. Consider the following decision table, which Joe Blackburn has developed for Vanderbilt Enterprises: States of Nature Decision Alternatives Probability: 0.35 0.25 0.40 Low Medium High A $35 $80 $65 B $85 $50 $70 C $55 $70 $75 D $70 $85 $65 E $70 $75 $85 Part 2 The alternative that provides Blackburn the greatest expected monetary value (EMV LOADING... ) is ▼ D E A B C The EMV for this decision is $_______(enter your answer as a whole number).A manufacturing company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars). State of Nature Decision Low Alternative Demand $1 Medium Demand $2 High Demand 53 Manufacture, d -5 55 115 Purchase, d₂ 60 85 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s₁) = 0.35, P(52) = 0.35, and P(53) = 0.30. (a) Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. The best decision is to purchase the component part. (b) Use EVPI to determine whether the company should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand, assuming the estimate would come at no further cost. EVPI = 9 The EVPI suggests that the company should consider an attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. (c) A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or…The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.
- The following payoff table shows the profit for a decision problem with two states of nature and two decision alternatives. Decision Alternative State of Nature $1 d₁ d₂ (a) Suppose P(s₁) = 0.2 and P(5₂) = 0.8. What is the best decision using the expected value approach? The best decision is --?-- with an expected value of 12 $₂ 6 3 5 (b) Perform sensitivity analysis on the payoffs for decision alternative d₂. Assume the probabilities are as given in part (a), and find the range of payoffs under states of natures, and so that will keep the solution found in part (a) optimal. As long as the payoff for s₁ under d₁ is --?-- , then the solution found in part (a) will be optimal. then the solution found in part (a) will be optimal. As long as the payoff for s₂ under d₁ is --?-- Is the solution more sensitive to the payoff under state of nature s₁ or 5₂? O $₁ 0 5₂A)decision table with probability for decision under risk B)Best decision under emv methodA decision tree is a graphic display of the decision process that indicates decision alternatives, states of nature and their respective probabilities, and payoffs for each combination of alternative and states of nature. O True O False * Previous Next ► MacBook Air 000 000 DD F7 セゴ F5 $ & レ 9 * 00
- Construct a decision tree and answer the following questions: What is the EMV of each decision alternative? Which action should be selected? What is the expected value with perfect information? What is the expected value of perfect information?Come up with a decision using MINIMAX REGRET CRITERION under conditions of uncertainty using the table below. The payoff values are expressed as LOSSES.Which decision alternative has the minimum payoff value of the maximum regret? Choices: -> A,B,C-> C,D,E-> E,F,G-> B,F,G-> C,G,FSolve the following problems using the Decision Analysis. Construct first the decision tree, and then use Bayes' Formula to determine the optimal decision. Decision Problems 1. The Quano Company is considering the purchase of mineral rights on a piece of property for P1 million. The price includes a seismic test whether the land is of type X or Y geological formation. The test cannot be done until after the purchase is made. According to reliable information 60% of the land is of type X formation and 40% of the area is of type Y. If the company decides to drill on the land, it will cost P2.5 million. It may hit oil, gas, or a dry well. Drilling experience indicates that the probability of hitting oil is 25% on X formation and 10% on Y formation. The probability of hitting gas is 30% on X formation and 45% on Y formation. The estimated return for an oil well is P5 million and from a gas well, P3 million. Should the company purchase mineral rights?
- A decision table describes results associated with which of the following A) Two decision variables B) One decision variable and one uncertain variable C) Two uncertain variables D) None of the aboveDecision Tree Analysis. You are considering the decision to purchase a machine for internal production or to subcontract the work to an external source. The following information has been provided by your financial managers: Cost to purchase the machine—$35,000 Cost to subcontract the work—$5,000 Probability of a good market = 70% Probability of a poor market = 30% Reward if the prediction occurs: In the purchase machine decision good market scenario—$80,000; in the poor market scenario—$30,000 In the Subcontract decision good market scenario—$50,000; in the poor market scenario—$15,000 1. What is the expected value of the decision to purchase the machine?Choose the letter of the correct answer on each questions being asked for each case 1. If the decision maker knows nothing about the probabilities of the four states of nature, what is the recommended decision using MAXIMAX CRITERION? D1 D2 D3 D4 2. What decision alternative will he choose if using MAXIMIN CRITERION? D1 D2 D3 D4 3. What about MINIMAX REGRET CRITERION? D1 D2 D3 D4 4. What decision would he make if using criterion of realism at alpha 0.6 is used? D1 D2 D3 D4
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