Solve the following problems using the Decision Analysis. Construct first the decision tree, and thenuse Bayes' Formula to determine the optimal decision.Decision Problems1. The Quano Company is considering the purchase of mineral rights on a piece of propertyfor P1 million. The price includes a seismic test whether the land is of type X or Ygeological formation. The test cannot be done until after the purchase is made.According to reliable information 60% of the land is of type X formation and 40% of thearea is of type Y. If the company decides to drill on the land, it will cost P2.5 million. Itmay hit oil, gas, or a dry well. Drilling experience indicates that the probability of hittingoil is 25% on X formation and 10% on Y formation. The probability of hitting gas is 30%on X formation and 45% on Y formation. The estimated return for an oil well is P5million and from a gas well, P3 million. Should the company purchase mineral rights?

Answered: Solve the following problems using the…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

A manufacturing company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars). State of Nature Decision Low Alternative Demand $1 Medium Demand $2 High Demand 53 Manufacture, d -5 55 115 Purchase, d₂ 60 85 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s₁) = 0.35, P(52) = 0.35, and P(53) = 0.30. (a) Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. The best decision is to purchase the component part. (b) Use EVPI to determine whether the company should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand, assuming the estimate would come at no further cost. EVPI = 9 The EVPI suggests that the company should consider an attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. (c) A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or…
An electronics factory operates on four production lines: laptops, mobiles, desktop computers, smart boards, and there were three cases of demand (weak, medium, and high), and the matrix of returns was as follows: Laptops Mobiles Risk Desktop Computers Smart Boards High 40 45 35 30 Economic state Medium 25 15 30 20 1. The problem presented above is decision-making under Certainty Uncertainty Weak 10 5 -10 -5 Save All Answers Save and Submit
( Use an excel sheet to show formulas used )
Which types of decisions should the decision trees be used to address for?
Decision Making Under Uncertainty In the Table, we apply the concept of Maximax choice, the Maxmin choice, and the equally likely choice. Given the data/information in the Table, compute for the row average. After that, determine the amount of the ROW AVERAGE that would be adopted to be best alternative. The best alternative is the alternative with the highest value of the row average. In this case, which option is more attractive? Values in PhP State of Nature Favorable Unfavorable Maximum Market Minimum in Row Alternatives Market in Row Row Average Project A 80,000.00 20,000.00 80,000.00 20,000.00 Project B 40,000.00 25,000.00 40,000.00 25,000.00 Project C 30,000.00 10,000.00 30,000.00 10,000.00 Project D (Do Nothing)
GENERATE THE DECISION VARIABLE SOLUTION AND GENERATE A SENSITIVITY REPORT CASE 1. Julia's Food Booth Julia Robertson is a senior at Tech, and she's investigating different ways to finance her final year at school. She is considering leasing a food booth outside the Tech stadium at home football games. Tech sells out every home game, and Julia knows, from attending the games herself, that everyone eats a lot of food. She has to pay $1,000 per game for a booth, and the booths are not very large. Vendors can sell either food or drinks on Tech property, but not both. Only the Tech athletic department concession stands can sell both inside the stadium. She thinks slices of cheese pizza, hot dogs, and barbecue sandwiches are the most popular food items among fans and so these are the items she would sell. Most food items are sold during the hour before the game starts and during half time; thus it will not be possible for Julia to prepare the food while she is selling it. She must prepare…
1) A decision maker using an exponential utility function would prefer a random payoff with an expected value of X to a certain payoff of X. True False 2) In a decision tree, a circular node indicates a point where a random event occurs. True False 3) The optimistic and conservative approaches to decision making will always give the same result. True False
State the differences between decision making under certainty, under risk, and under uncertainty.
13
Assume that alternatives A, B,C, D are considered. Alternative C is better than each of the other 3 alternatives in all the 10 attributes considered, except one, but this one C is by far the worst. Which of the decision making models below would be the mostly likely to result in aliminating alternative C? a) addictive weighting b) dominance c) satisficing d) disjunctive resolution
A small parts manufacturer has just engineered a new product for the automotive industry. In order to produce the part the company can expand existing facilities, acquire a competitor, or subcontract production. The company believes the product will either experience high market demand, an average market demand or low market demand. The following table summarizes the company's decision situation (profits in thousands of dollars). Alternative 00 540 300 240 O 100 30% High Dem. 1,000 Expand Facilities Acquire Competitor Subcontract Production What is the Expected Value of Perfect Information for the small parts manufacturer? 800 Ave. Dem. 200 600 -300 30% 100 Low Dem. -1,000 -400 0
The CrystalTip Company has a production plan. The company wants to determine which of their premium products to concentrate on producing for the next few months. The Payoff table presented below shows the decision alternatives, states of nature (level of demand) and the payoffs (profits). Payoff (profit 000) states of natureAlternatives Option Low Moderate High Putpletip $1500 $5,500 $8,000Goldtip -$150 $6,250 $10,500Silvertip…

SEE MORE QUESTIONS

Recommended textbooks for you

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781337406659

Author:

WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:

Cengage,

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781259667473

Author:

William J Stevenson

Publisher:

McGraw-Hill Education

Operations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hi…

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781259666100

Author:

F. Robert Jacobs, Richard B Chase

Publisher:

McGraw-Hill Education

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781337406659

Author:

WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:

Cengage,

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781259667473

Author:

William J Stevenson

Publisher:

McGraw-Hill Education

Operations and Supply Chain Management (Mcgraw-hi…

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781259666100

Author:

F. Robert Jacobs, Richard B Chase

Publisher:

McGraw-Hill Education

Business in Action

Operations Management

ISBN:

9780135198100

Author:

BOVEE

Publisher:

PEARSON CO

Purchasing and Supply Chain Management

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781285869681

Author:

Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson

Publisher:

Cengage Learning

Production and Operations Analysis, Seventh Editi…

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781478623069

Author:

Steven Nahmias, Tava Lennon Olsen

Publisher:

Waveland Press, Inc.

SEE MORE TEXTBOOKS