A small project consisting of eight activities has the following characteristics:   Time estimate (in weeks) Activity Preceding activity Most Optimistic time (a) Most likely time (m) Most Pessimestic time (b) A None 2 4 12 B None 10 12 26 C A 8 9 10 D A 10 15 20 E A 7 7.5 11 F B, C 9 9 9 G D 3 3.5 7 H E, F, G 5 5 5   What is the probability of completing the project exactly on the due date? If a 30- week deadline is imposed, what is the probability that the project will be finished within the time limit? What is the project variance?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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  1. A small project consisting of eight activities has the following characteristics:

 

Time estimate (in weeks)

Activity

Preceding activity

Most Optimistic time (a)

Most likely time (m)

Most Pessimestic time (b)

A

None

2

4

12

B

None

10

12

26

C

A

8

9

10

D

A

10

15

20

E

A

7

7.5

11

F

B, C

9

9

9

G

D

3

3.5

7

H

E, F, G

5

5

5

 

  1. What is the probability of completing the project exactly on the due date?
  2. If a 30- week deadline is imposed, what is the probability that the project will be finished within the time limit?
  3. What is the project variance?
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Follow-up Question

z =(x-µ)/σ = (30-29)/2.45 = 0.4082
Probability P(z) = NORMSDIST(0.4082) = 0.6585 or 65.85%

How is 0.4082 changed to o.6585?

Solution
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Follow-up Question

standard Deviation (σ) = SQRT(Variance) = SQRT(6) = 2.45

This is not clear  for me. How did you do it?

Solution
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