For a specific site, earthquakes above magnitude 7 have a return period of 500 years. We are designing a dam with a design life of 100 years. We want to design this dam with a 1% probability of damage during it’s lifetime. Effects of each earthquake are statistically independent. a) Assuming that you can model magnitude 7 earthquakes following a Bernoulli sequence, what is the probability of damage to the dam by a single earthquake? b) What would be the probability of damage to the dam in the next 40 years? Use the results of part a and assume that this can be modeled as a Poisson process.
For a specific site, earthquakes above magnitude 7 have a return period of 500 years. We are designing a dam with a design life of 100 years. We want to design this dam with a 1% probability of damage during it’s lifetime. Effects of each earthquake are statistically independent. a) Assuming that you can model magnitude 7 earthquakes following a Bernoulli sequence, what is the probability of damage to the dam by a single earthquake? b) What would be the probability of damage to the dam in the next 40 years? Use the results of part a and assume that this can be modeled as a Poisson process.
Advanced Engineering Mathematics
10th Edition
ISBN:9780470458365
Author:Erwin Kreyszig
Publisher:Erwin Kreyszig
Chapter2: Second-order Linear Odes
Section: Chapter Questions
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For a specific site, earthquakes above magnitude 7 have a return period of 500 years. We are designing a dam with a design life of 100 years. We want to design this dam with a 1% probability of damage during it’s lifetime. Effects of each earthquake are statistically independent.
a) Assuming that you can model magnitude 7 earthquakes following a Bernoulli sequence, what is the probability of damage to the dam by a single earthquake?
b) What would be the probability of damage to the dam in the next 40 years? Use the results of part a and assume that this can be modeled as a Poisson process.
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