Decision matrix below consists of COSTS expected, determine which alternative is dominant using with andwithout probability techniques (use a 35 and probability of: 20%, 15% ; 15% ; 25% & 25% for S1, S2,53, 54 and 55 respectively): Using EVPI, what is the computed value.AlternativesS253A11815A22014A31625SI12713S481210$5111617

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Answered: Decision matrix below consists of COSTS…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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A manufacturing company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars). State of Nature Decision Low Alternative Demand $1 Medium Demand $2 High Demand 53 Manufacture, d -5 55 115 Purchase, d₂ 60 85 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s₁) = 0.35, P(52) = 0.35, and P(53) = 0.30. (a) Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. The best decision is to purchase the component part. (b) Use EVPI to determine whether the company should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand, assuming the estimate would come at no further cost. EVPI = 9 The EVPI suggests that the company should consider an attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. (c) A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or…
PHARMACEUTICAL CALCULATIONS 5. A physician offers a patient the option of prescribing 30 scored ZOLOFT 100-mg tablets (for the patient to break in half with a dose of one-half tablet) or 60 tab- lets containing 50 mg of the drug. Calcu- late the cost differential and indicate the most economical option for the patient if the 100-mg tablets cost $192.76 per 100 tablets and the 50-mg tablets cost $187.34 per 100 tablets. 6 Calculate the daily drug cost differential
6. Laura is trying to decide whether to sell her knitted hats on Etsy, at a holiday bazaar, or in a local boutique. Demand could be 0 hats/month, 10 hats/month, or 20 hats/month. Given the payoff matrix below, what is her decision under equally likely? Demand = 0 Demand = 10 Demand = 20 Etsy -$70 $80 $230 Bazaar -$60 $90 $240 Boutique -$80 $70 $220 Select one: a. Etsy and boutique. b. Etsy only. c. Etsy and bazaar. d. Bazaar and boutique. e. All 3 are equally good. f. Bazaar only. g. None of them are good options. h. Boutique only.
Lakewood Fashions must decide how many lots of assorted ski wear to order for its three stores. Information on pricing, sales, and inventory costs has led to the following payoff table, in thousands. Order size 1 lot 2 lots 3 lots (a) Show a regret table. Order size 1 lot 2 lots 3 lots 13 9 6 Low 13 9 6 Low Demand Medium 16 24 32 16 24 32 High 16 32 61 Demand Medium (b) What decision should be made by the optimist? O 1 lot O2 lots 3 lots 16 32 61 High Maximum Regret 2:06 PM
II. + James Scott is considering the possibility of opening a small outfit shop on Sta. Maria District, a few blocks from St. Green Ville College. She has located on a mall that attracts students. To open a small shop, medium sized shop, or no shop at all are her options. The market can be good, average, or bad. The probabilities for these three possibilities are 30% for good market, 50% for an average market, and 20% for bad market. The profit or loss for the said market conditions are given in the table below; ALTERNATIVE Small Shop Medium Sized Shop No Shop GOOD 150,000 200,000 0 AVERAGE 50,000 70,000 0 a) Calculate the Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) b) What do you recommend? BAD -80,000 -120,000 0
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Given: Year Demand 1 7 2 9 3 5 4 9 5 Predict the value for Year 5: 2 year moving average What is MSE for 2 year moving average? 2 year moving average using 0.6 (weight for the oldest period) and 0.4(weight for most recent period Exponential smoothing, =0.2 and forecast for Year 1 = 5 Linear trend Which forecast method has the least amount of error using MAD? What is the coefficient?
Deborah Kellogg buys Breathalyzer test sets for the Winter Park Police Department. The quality of the test sets from her two suppliers is indicated in the following table: Percent Defective Probability for Winter Park Probability for Dayton 1% 3% 5% .70 .20 .10 .30 .30 .40 Kellogg orders 10,000 tests per order. A defective Breathalyzer test set can be repaired for $0.50. When determining the costs for each branch (Decision Tree), utilize the number per order (*) the percent defective (*) the repair cost. a. What is the EMV for Winter Park? $ [Select ] b. What is the EMV for Dayton? $$127 c. What choice should Deborah Kellogg make? [Select] >
A well-known plastic mould and die manufacturer in Toronto intends to expand internationally in anticipation of strong demand and expansion in the plastic die manufacturing sector. use the table beneath. Using the Maximax, Maximin, and equally likely conditions, assist the business in making the best option in an unclear situation. 0.5 for a highly favourable condition, 0.2 for an average demand, and 0.3 for an unfavourable state are the probabilities linked with the states of nature.a) Choose the course of action that will give Andrew the highest predicted monetary value (EMV).b) Determine the anticipated value of perfect information (EVPI).
An oil company must decide whether or not to drill an oil well in a particular area that they already own. The decision maker (DM) believes that the area could be dry, reasonably good or a bonanza. See data in the table which shows the gross revenues for the oil well that is found. Decision Drill $0 Abandon $0 Probability 0.3 Dry (D) Seismic Results No structure(N) Open(0) Closed (C) Drilling costs 40M. The company can take a series of seismic soundings (at a cost of 12M) to determine the underlying geological structure. The results will be either "no structure", "open structure or "closed structure". The reliability of the testing company is as follows that is, this reflects their historical performance. Reasonably good(G) $85 $0 0.3 Note that if the test result is "no structure" the company can sell the land to a developer for 50 m. otherwise (for the other results) it can abandon the drilling idea at no benefit to itself. Dry(d) 0.7 0.2 Bonanza(B) 0.1 $200 m SO 0.4 Conditional…
3
Using labelled scatter diagrams, explore the relationship between Quarter 1 projected revenue and that of Quarters 2, 3 and 4, pointing out any differences between them.

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