A manager uses a trend equation plus quarterly relatives to predict demand. Quarter relatives are SR, = 0.9, SR, = 0.95, SR3 = 1.05,and SR4 = 1.1. The trend equation is: Ft = 11 + 3t. Over the past nine quarters, demand has been as follows:Period, t:123478Demand:15 17 20 23 25 29 34 36 39Click here for the Excel Data FileCompute the MAD and tracking signal for each period. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round yourintermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.)Period, tDemandMADTracking signal115173204232529734836392.

Given data- Period Demand 1 15 2 17 3 20 4 23 5 25 6 29 7 34 8 36 9 39

Answered: A manager uses a trend equation plus…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Please help with the correct answers in details: Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 12 17 10 18 15 Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) mean absolute error MAE = (b) mean squared error MSE = (c) mean absolute percentage error (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MAPE = % (d) What is the forecast for week 7?
Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast demand for period 11. Let α = 0.5, � = 0.3, and let the initial trend value be 12 and the initial forecast be 200
The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows: YEAR CASES OF MERLOT WINE 1 270 2 356 3 398 4 456 5 358 6 500 7 410 8 376 Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.20, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of year 8. Use the average demand for years 1 through 3 as your initial forecast for year 4, and then smooth the forecast forward to year 8. Note: Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to the nearest whole number.
The number of internal disk drives (in millions) made at a plant in Taiwan during the past 5 years follows: Year Disk Drives 1 142 2 156 3 184 4 204 5 210 a) Using simple linear regression the forecast for the number of disk drives to be made next year= 234.4 disk drives b) The mean squared error when using simple linear regression = 24.64 drives2 c) The mean absolute percentage error (mape) when using simple linear regression= [___]% (round your response to 1 decimal place)
From the following annual data of sales (in 000 .$.) Find the trend values by using least square method. Also estimate the sales of 2014. Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sales {In 000 $} 77 88 94 85 91 98 90
A forecaster is assessing two different models for demand. The output from each model and the actual demand data appears in the table. Use MAD to compare the two models. Which model does a better job of forecasting? Demand Model 1 52 52 54 56 60 56 58 58 52 57 53 57 Model 2 21 55 54.7 51.9 54.5 52.0 53.8 55.8 59.6 56.4 52 53.5 53.5 55.5 56.5 57.5 57.8 58.0 58.0 56.0 52.6 56.3 56.6 55.0 53.4 O Model 2 is 9% better O Model 1 is 8% better O Model 2 is 15% better O Model 1 is 5% better
The most naive forecast can is quite valuable in leading to an organization’s success because it is most widely understood by senior managers. True or False
st Info Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 K Develop two exponential smoothing forecasts for periods 2 through 11. For the first forecast, use a = 0.3. For the second, use α = 0.7. Assume that your forecast for period 1 was 205. Click the icon to view the time series data. Find the exponential smoothing forecast for each period when a = 0.3 (enter your responses rounded to one decimal place). Demand 222 249 222 228 235 155 161 153 163 152 X Period 1 2 Demand 222 249 Forecast (α = 0.3) 205
Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 17 12 15 12 18 13 Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) mean absolute error MAE = (b) mean squared error MSE = (c) mean absolute percentage error (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MAPE = % (d) What is the forecast for week 7?
The following shows five months forecast demand and the corresponding actual demand for certain product.
We are using Winter’s method and monthly data toforecast the GDP. (All numbers are in billions of dollars.)At the end of January 2005, Lt 600 and Tt 5. We aregiven the following seasonalities: January, 0.80; February,0.85; December, 1.2. During February 2005, the GDP is ata level of 630. At the end of February what is the forecastfor the December 2005 level of the GDP? Use a b g 0.5.
Suppose a firm has had the following historic sales figures. Year: 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sales $3,400,000 $4,650,000 $3,300,000 $2,900,000 What would be the forecast for next year's sales using the naïve approach? Answer is complete but not entirely correct. Next year's sales $ 3,550,000 2020 $3,500,000

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