stInfoPeriod12345678910KDevelop two exponential smoothing forecasts for periods 2 through 11. For the first forecast, use a = 0.3. Forthe second, use α = 0.7. Assume that your forecast for period 1 was 205.Click the icon to view the time series data.Find the exponential smoothing forecast for each period when a = 0.3 (enter your responses rounded to onedecimal place).Demand222249222228235155161153163152XPeriod12Demand222249Forecast (α = 0.3)205

Exponential smoothing is calculate with following formula: Ft+1 = α * At +(1-α) *FtCurrent forecast…

Answered: t Info Period 1 2 3 456999 10 K Develop…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Period 1 2 3 4 5 New Accounts Period 201 215 212 229 236 6 7 8 9 10 New Accounts Period 233 249 253 254 268 11 12 13 14 15 New Accounts 282 276 281 289 311
35 The last seven weeks of demand at a new car dealer are shown below. Use a three-period weighted-moving average forecast to determine a forecast for the 8th week using weights of 3, 2, and 1 (where the most recent week receives the highest weight). (Round all forecasts to the nearest whole unit.) Calculate the MAD for this forecast (covering all weeks in which error comparisons can be made). What does the MAD indicate? Week Sales1 252 303 274 315 276 297 30
In a retail store, the actual sales of a particular product (in thousands of units) over the past few months are as follows: Month Sales 1 16 2 22 3 18 4 20 5 23 Using exponential smoothing method with α (smoothing constant) of 0.75 and the given forecast for month 1 equal to 10, what is the forecast for month 6?
Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 Value 17 14 15 3 (b) mean squared error MSE = % 4 Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) mean absolute error MAE = 5 6 (d) What is the forecast for week 7? 12 16 15 (c) mean absolute percentage error (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MAPE =
Given the following original forecast and actual data: Month Actual Forecast Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 600 475 550 575 688 649 ??? 400 —— 1 ??? Using exponential smoothing with a - = 0.64, what is the forecast for July. Round your answer to 2 decimal places.
please answer in 30 minutes.
Problem 5 You are trying to determine what forecast method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize. MAY JUNE MONTH JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL DEMAND 62 65 67 68 71 73 MONTH JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER DEMAND 76 78 78 80 84 85 a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average for periods 4 to 12. b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 4 to 12. Use weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 for the most recent, second most recent, and third most recent periods, respectively. c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial forecast (F₁) of 61 and a of 0.30. d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial trend forecast (T₁) of 1.8, and initial exponential smoothing forecast (F₁) of 60, an a of 0.30 and ō of 0.30. e. Calculate the MAD for the forecasts made by each…
Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 3 Value 18 13 (a) Construct a time series plot. 20T 18 16- 14- Time Series Value O Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 What type of pattern exists in the data? O The data appear to follow a cyclical pattern. O The data appear to follow a trend pattern. 8 6 O The data appear to follow a seasonal pattern. O The data appear to follow a horizontal pattern. Week 1 2 0 1 3 4 5 6 18 13 15 12 (b) Develop the three-week moving average for this time series. (Round your answers to two decimal places.) Time Series Value 16 14 18 + 2 13 15 4 5 6 15 12 16 3 Compute MSE. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MSE = What is the forecast for week 7? 12 16 4 14 Week (c) Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Time Series Value 5 14 Forecast 6 Forecast 7 20 18 16 14 12 WE 10 2 + 7 @o 20 18 0 1 2 3 4 Week 5 6 00 0 1 2 3 4 5 Week 6 7…
Based on above assume you are using the moving average forecasting method based on the last four observations. When making the forecast for the last period, theoldest of the four observations was 1945 and the forecast was 2083. Thetrue value for the last period then turned out to be 1977. Calculate yourforecast for the next period. Can you show on excel?
Bradley's Copiers sells and repairs photocopy machines. The manager needs weekly forecasts of service calls so that he can schedule service personnel. Use the actual demand in the first period for the forecast for the first week so error measurement begins in the second week. The manager uses exponential smoothing with a = 0.4. Forecast the number of calls for week 6, which is next week. Week Actual Service Calls 26 2 34 38 4 27 5 35 The forecast for week 6 is service calls. (Enter your response rounded to two decimal places.)

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