a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average for periods 4 to 12. b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 4 to 12. Use weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 for the most recent, second most recent, and third most recent periods, respectively. c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial forecast (F₁) of 61 and a of 0.30.
a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average for periods 4 to 12. b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 4 to 12. Use weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 for the most recent, second most recent, and third most recent periods, respectively. c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial forecast (F₁) of 61 and a of 0.30.
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 26P: The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel...
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![Problem 5
You are trying to determine what forecast method to use. Based upon the following
historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would
utilize.
MAY
JUNE
MONTH JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL
DEMAND 62
65
67
68
71
73
MONTH JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
DEMAND 76
78
78
80
84
85
a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average for periods 4 to 12.
b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 4 to 12. Use
weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 for the most recent, second most recent, and
third most recent periods, respectively.
c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an
initial forecast (F₁) of 61 and a of 0.30.
d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2
to 12 using an initial trend forecast (T₁) of 1.8, and initial exponential smoothing
forecast (F₁) of 60, an a of 0.30 and ō of 0.30.
e. Calculate the MAD for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4 to 12.
Which forecasting method provides the best forecasts?](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Fb4be5ad1-8f06-4415-880d-d7a84327b8fa%2Feefe68be-b4e9-4887-80b7-8bababcf2192%2F0ztauau_processed.png&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:Problem 5
You are trying to determine what forecast method to use. Based upon the following
historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would
utilize.
MAY
JUNE
MONTH JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL
DEMAND 62
65
67
68
71
73
MONTH JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER
DEMAND 76
78
78
80
84
85
a. Calculate the simple three-month moving average for periods 4 to 12.
b. Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 4 to 12. Use
weights of 0.50, 0.30, and 0.20 for the most recent, second most recent, and
third most recent periods, respectively.
c. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an
initial forecast (F₁) of 61 and a of 0.30.
d. Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2
to 12 using an initial trend forecast (T₁) of 1.8, and initial exponential smoothing
forecast (F₁) of 60, an a of 0.30 and ō of 0.30.
e. Calculate the MAD for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4 to 12.
Which forecasting method provides the best forecasts?
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