c. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable ( U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows:

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iii. What is the probability that the market research report will be unfavorable?
iv. Decision tree leading to market study/ prediction of favorable condition.
v. Decision tree leading to market study/ prediction of unfavorable condition.
vi. The decision tree incorporating the 2 conditions.
Transcribed Image Text:iii. What is the probability that the market research report will be unfavorable? iv. Decision tree leading to market study/ prediction of favorable condition. v. Decision tree leading to market study/ prediction of unfavorable condition. vi. The decision tree incorporating the 2 conditions.
The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component
part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The
resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table
shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars).
State of Nature
Low
Medium
High
Decision Alternative Demand 81 Demand $2 Demand S3
Manufacture, di
-20
40
100
10
45
70
Purchase, d2
The state-of-nature probabilities are P(81) = .35, P(s2) = .35 , and P(s3) = .30.
c. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either
a favorable (F) or unfavorable ( U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as
follows:
P(F\s1) = .10
P(F|s2) = .40
P(F|83) = .60
P(U|s1) = .90
P(U|s2) = .60
P(U|s3) = .40
Transcribed Image Text:The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars). State of Nature Low Medium High Decision Alternative Demand 81 Demand $2 Demand S3 Manufacture, di -20 40 100 10 45 70 Purchase, d2 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(81) = .35, P(s2) = .35 , and P(s3) = .30. c. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable ( U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F\s1) = .10 P(F|s2) = .40 P(F|83) = .60 P(U|s1) = .90 P(U|s2) = .60 P(U|s3) = .40
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