alculate (a) MAD and (b) MSE for the following forecast versus actual sales figures: =(round your response to one decimal place). MAD= Forecast Actual 103 117 131 145 96 119 134 145
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- The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?< Calculate (a) MAD and (b) MSE for the following forecast versus actual sales figures: a) MAD= b) MSE= (round your response to one decimal place) (round your response to one decimal place). Forecast Actual 93 101 109 117 89 103 105 117↑ Calculate (a) MAD and (b) MSE for the following forecast versus actual sales figures: Forecast Actual a) MAD= b) MSE= (round your response to one decimal place). (round your response to one decimal place). 111 16 105 117 102 107 113 123 123
- Make a 15-year simple linear regression forecast. Example: Railroad Products Co. RPC Sales Car Loadings Year ($millions) (millions) 1 9.5 120 2 11.0 135 3 12.0 130 4 12.5 150 5 14.0 170 6 16.0 190 7 18.0 220Asvnch Problem - Statistical Forecasting Data Set – Eunice BC Fashion Monthly Sales, in million units. Year Total Sales Year Total Sales 2010 38 2016 43 2011 41 2017 40 2012 40 2018 45 2013 45 2019 47 2014 50 2020 42 2015 42 2021 48 Questions: a. Find the naïve forecast. b. Use the 3 years moving average forecast. c. Have a 5 years weighted moving average. d. Develop forecast using exponential smoothing with a = 0.2. e. Determine the trend line equation and present the forecast. f. Find the best forecast for year 2022. Note: Use the first 5 years as the training samples and the last 5 years as the forecasting samples. Solve it in Excel Sheet/Sheet with Equations as possible.Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following historical data, calculate the following forecasts and specify what procedure you would utilize. Month Actual Demand 1 64 2 67 3 69 4 65 5 71 6 73 7 76 8 77 9 77 10 82 11 83 12 85 Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4–12.(Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) Month Actual Demand 4 66.667 5 67.000 6 68.333 7 69.666 8 73.333 9 75.333 10 76.666 11 78.666 12 80.666 Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 4–12 using weights of 0.30 (for the period t−1); 0.20 (for the period t−2), and 0.50 (for the period t−3). (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 1 decimal place.) Month Actual Demand 4 66.7 5 67.0 6 68.3 7 69.7 8 73.3 9 75.3…
- st Info Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 K Develop two exponential smoothing forecasts for periods 2 through 11. For the first forecast, use a = 0.3. For the second, use α = 0.7. Assume that your forecast for period 1 was 205. Click the icon to view the time series data. Find the exponential smoothing forecast for each period when a = 0.3 (enter your responses rounded to one decimal place). Demand 222 249 222 228 235 155 161 153 163 152 X Period 1 2 Demand 222 249 Forecast (α = 0.3) 2052. Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with a = 0.2 and a = 0.5 to generate forecasts for periods 2 through 6. Use MAD and MSE to decide which of the two models produced a better forecast. Period Actual Forecast 1 15 17 2 18 3 14 4 16 5 13 6 16Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize. Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2 to 12 using an initial forecast (F1) of 61 and an a of 0.30.