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a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Compare a two-week moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for a = 0.4, which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy? c. Create a linear trend projection model to make a sales forecast and evaluate the accuracy of the sales forecast. d. Based on the results, which is the best forecasting model to be used to forecast the 13th week sales?

a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Compare a two-week moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for a = 0.4, which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy? c. Create a linear trend projection model to make a sales forecast and evaluate the accuracy of the sales forecast. d. Based on the results, which is the best forecasting model to be used to forecast the 13th week sales?

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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1. United Dairies, Ic., supplies milk to several independent grocers throughout Dade County, Florida. Managers at United Dairies want to develop a forecast of the number of half gallons of milk sold per week. Sales data for the past 12 weeks are: week Sales week sales 1 2750 3300 2 3100 8 3100 3250 2950 4 2800 3000 10 2900 11 3200 3050 12 3150 a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Compare a two-week moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for a = 0.4, which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy? c. Create a linear trend projection model to make a sales forecast and evaluate the accuracy of the sales forecast. d. Based on the results, which is the best forecasting model to be used to forecast the 13th week sales?
Transcribed Image Text:1. United Dairies, Ic., supplies milk to several independent grocers throughout Dade County, Florida. Managers at United Dairies want to develop a forecast of the number of half gallons of milk sold per week. Sales data for the past 12 weeks are: week Sales week sales 1 2750 3300 2 3100 8 3100 3250 2950 4 2800 3000 10 2900 11 3200 3050 12 3150 a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? b. Compare a two-week moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for a = 0.4, which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy? c. Create a linear trend projection model to make a sales forecast and evaluate the accuracy of the sales forecast. d. Based on the results, which is the best forecasting model to be used to forecast the 13th week sales?
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