A person has a cough and flu-like symptoms and gets a PCR test for COVID-19, which comes back positive. What is the likelihood that they actually have COVID-19, as opposed to a regular cold or flu? Let’s say that the local rate of symptomatic individuals who actually are infected with COVID-19 is 5.95%; The RT-PCR test used to identify COVID-19 RNA is highly specific (that is, it very rarely reports the presence of the virus when it is not present); for our example, we will say that the specificity is 97%. Its sensitivity is not known but probably is no higher than 85%

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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A person has a cough and flu-like symptoms and gets a PCR test for COVID-19, which comes back positive. What is the likelihood that they actually have COVID-19, as opposed to a regular cold or flu? Let’s say that the local rate of symptomatic individuals who actually are infected with COVID-19 is 5.95%; The RT-PCR test used to identify COVID-19 RNA is highly specific (that is, it very rarely reports the presence of the virus when it is not present); for our example, we will say that the specificity is 97%. Its sensitivity is not known but probably is no higher than 85%.

 

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