A grocery supplier has two potato fields, A and B, growing the same kind of potato. However the field A produces potato with proportion of 0=8% of potatoes that are rotten inside, while field B produces 0=6% of rotten potatoes. The grocery manager asked the supplier to deliver potato from field A. The delivery arrived. The manager is bayesian and based on her prior experience with the supplier, she believes that the probability of the delivery being from field A (i.e. that the supplier is honest) is 40%. While the supplier hasn't left yet, the manager quickly checks 20 potatoes and discovers x = 4 of them to be rotten. Find the posterior probability P(0 = 0.08 | x = 4) that the potato comes from the field A, after finding 4 rotten potatoes in the sample. 0.898 0.158 O 0.277 O 0.599

Holt Mcdougal Larson Pre-algebra: Student Edition 2012
1st Edition
ISBN:9780547587776
Author:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Publisher:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Chapter11: Data Analysis And Probability
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A grocery supplier has two potato fields, A and B, growing the same kind of potato. However
the field A produces potato with proportion of 0=8% of potatoes that are rotten inside, while
field B produces 0=6% of rotten potatoes. The grocery manager asked the supplier to deliver
potato from field A. The delivery arrived. The manager is bayesian and based on her prior
experience with the supplier, she believes that the probability of the delivery being from field
A (i.e. that the supplier is honest) is 40%. While the supplier hasn't left yet, the manager
quickly checks 20 potatoes and discovers x = 4 of them to be rotten.
Find the posterior probability P(0 = 0.08 | x = 4) that the potato comes from the field A,
after finding 4 rotten potatoes in the sample.
0.898
0.158
O 0.277
O 0.599
Transcribed Image Text:A grocery supplier has two potato fields, A and B, growing the same kind of potato. However the field A produces potato with proportion of 0=8% of potatoes that are rotten inside, while field B produces 0=6% of rotten potatoes. The grocery manager asked the supplier to deliver potato from field A. The delivery arrived. The manager is bayesian and based on her prior experience with the supplier, she believes that the probability of the delivery being from field A (i.e. that the supplier is honest) is 40%. While the supplier hasn't left yet, the manager quickly checks 20 potatoes and discovers x = 4 of them to be rotten. Find the posterior probability P(0 = 0.08 | x = 4) that the potato comes from the field A, after finding 4 rotten potatoes in the sample. 0.898 0.158 O 0.277 O 0.599
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