A water policy consultant is tasked with deciding whether or not to start a desalination plant this summer depending on two possible states of nature X ={drought, no drought} where the odds of drought is 1:8. They decide to seek survey information from the weather bureau who will say whether or not there is an active El niño. Based on historical data, the chance of there being an El niño given there is drought is 75% and the probability of there being an El niño given there is no drought is 33%. If the survey result says that there is an El niño what is the probability of drought? (Give your answer to the nearest whole percentage.)

A water policy consultant is tasked with deciding whether or not to start a desalination plant this summer depending on two possible states of nature X ={drought, no drought} where the odds of drought is 1:8. They decide to seek survey information from the weather bureau who will say whether or not there is an active El niño. Based on historical data, the chance of there being an El niño given there is drought is 75% and the probability of there being an El niño given there is no drought is 33%. If the survey result says that there is an El niño what is the probability of drought? (Give your answer to the nearest whole percentage.)

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

10th Edition

ISBN:9780134753119

Author:Sheldon Ross

Publisher:Sheldon Ross

Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...

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