9. Business Administration. Each university has strong and weak points and the demand for MBA graduates is uncertain. The availability of jobs, student loans, amd financial support will have a significant impact on Yuxuan's ultimate decision. UPM and UM have comparatively high tuition, which would necessitate Yuxuan take out student loans resulting in possibly substantial student loan debt. In a tight market, degrees with that cachet might spell the difference between a hefty paycheck and a piddling unemployment check. USM and UKM hold the advantage of comparatively low tuition but a more regional appeal in a tight job market. Yuxuan gathers his advisory council of Kip and Pedro to assist with the decision. Together they forecast three possible scenarios for the job market and institutional success and predict
9. Business Administration. Each university has strong and weak points and the demand for MBA graduates is uncertain. The availability of jobs, student loans, amd financial support will have a significant impact on Yuxuan's ultimate decision. UPM and UM have comparatively high tuition, which would necessitate Yuxuan take out student loans resulting in possibly substantial student loan debt. In a tight market, degrees with that cachet might spell the difference between a hefty paycheck and a piddling unemployment check. USM and UKM hold the advantage of comparatively low tuition but a more regional appeal in a tight job market. Yuxuan gathers his advisory council of Kip and Pedro to assist with the decision. Together they forecast three possible scenarios for the job market and institutional success and predict
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Transcribed Image Text:9. Business Administration. Each university has strong and weak points and the demand for
MBA graduates is uncertain. The availability of jobs, student loans, and financial support will
have a significant impact on Yuxuan's ultimate decision. UPM and UM have comparatively
high tuition, which would necessitate Yuxuan take out student loans resulting in possibly
substantial student loan debt. In a tight market, degrees with that cachet might spell the
difference between a hefty paycheck and a piddling unemployment check. USM and UKM hold
the advantage of comparatively low tuition but a more regional appeal in a tight job market.
Yuxuan gathers his advisory council of Kip and Pedro to assist with the decision. Together they
forecast three possible scenarios for the job market and institutional success and predict
annual cash flows associated with an MBA from each institution. All cash flows in the table
are in thousands of dollars.
School
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
UPM
95
20
-10
UKM
55
60
60
UM
90
10
80
USM
65
50
60
a. Kip tends to be extremely optimistic. Which decision making criterion would he
naturally select and what conclusion would he recommend to Yuxuan? Why?
b. Pedro is extremely pessimistic. Which decision making criterion would he naturally
select and what conclusion would he recommend to Yuxuan? Why?
c. Anis bursts into the meeting and announces that there's another way to consider the
issue. Since Yuxuan will have to live with his choice for the rest of his life, he might
consider selecting the alternative that will cause him the least pain in hindsight when
he compares his outcome with what he might have gained. Using Minimax Regret
criterion, what is the best school for this criterion, and why?
d. Yuxuan's Uncle Rico believes that the scenarios are not necessarily equally likely, and
suggests that the likelihood of occurrence of Scenario 2 is 0.4 and the likelihood of
occurrence of Scenarios 1 and 3 are both 0.3. What is the best decision using expected
value?
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