Develop a decision tree for the medical professionals to analyze this problem. Use the EMV approach to recommend a strategy.
Develop a decision tree for the medical professionals to analyze this problem. Use the EMV approach to recommend a strategy.
A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
Related questions
Question
Q1. Without the market study, what is the best decision?
Q2.What is the best decision if they revive an unfavourable report?

Transcribed Image Text:A group of medical professionals is considering the construction of a private clinic. If the medical demand is
high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could realize a net profit of $100,000. If
the market is not favorable, they could lose $40,000. Of course, they don't have to proceed at all, in which
case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the physicians' best guess is that there is a 50-50
chance the clinic will be successful.
The physicians have been approached by a market research firm that offers to perform a study of the market
at a fee of $5,000. The market researchers claim their experience enables them to use Bayes' Theorem to
make the following statements of probability:
Probability of a favorable market given a favorable study is 0.82;
Probability of an unfavorable market given a favorable study is 0.18;
Probability of a favorable market given an unfavorable study is 0.1089;
Probability of an unfavorable market given a unfavorable study is 0.8911;
Probability of a favorable study is 0.55;
Probability of an unfavorable study is 0.45;
Develop a decision tree for the medical professionals to analyze this problem. Use the EMV approach to
recommend a strategy.
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