4,23 Sales of vegetable dehydrators at Bud Banıs's dis- count department store in St. Louis over the past year are showr below. Management prepared a forecast using a combination of exponential smoothing and its collective judgment for the 4 months (March, April, May, and June of 2010): Management's Forecast 2009-2010 Month Unit Sales 100 July August September October 93 96 110 November 124 December 119 92 January February 83 March 101 120 96 114 April Мay June 89 110 108 108 a) Compute MAD and MAPE for management's technique. b) Do management's results outperform (i.e., have smaller MAD and MAPE than) a naive forecast? c) Which forecast do you recommend, based on lower forecast error?
4,23 Sales of vegetable dehydrators at Bud Banıs's dis- count department store in St. Louis over the past year are showr below. Management prepared a forecast using a combination of exponential smoothing and its collective judgment for the 4 months (March, April, May, and June of 2010): Management's Forecast 2009-2010 Month Unit Sales 100 July August September October 93 96 110 November 124 December 119 92 January February 83 March 101 120 96 114 April Мay June 89 110 108 108 a) Compute MAD and MAPE for management's technique. b) Do management's results outperform (i.e., have smaller MAD and MAPE than) a naive forecast? c) Which forecast do you recommend, based on lower forecast error?
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Transcribed Image Text:4.23
Sales of vegetable dehydrators at Bud Banis's dis-
count department store in St. Louis over the past year are shown
below. Management prepared a forecast using a combination of
exponential smoothing and its collective judgment for the 4 months
(March, April, May, and June of 2010):
Management's
Forecast
2009-2010
Month
Unit Sales
100
July
August
September
October
November
93
96
110
124
December
119
92
January
February
March
83
101
120
96
114
April
May
89
110
June
108
108
a) Compute MAD and MAPE for management's technique.
b) Do management's results outperform (i.e., have smaller MAD
and MAPE than) a naive forecast?
Which forecast do you recommend, based on lower forecast error?
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