4) the accompanying dataset provides data on monthly unemployment rates for a certain region over four years. Compare 3- and 12- month moving average forecast using the MAD criterion. Which of the two models yields better results? (See picture) Find the MAD for the 3 month moving average forcast. MAD = _____

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4) the accompanying dataset provides data on monthly unemployment rates for a certain region over four years. Compare 3- and 12- month moving average forecast using the MAD criterion. Which of the two models yields better results? (See picture)

Find the MAD for the 3 month moving average forcast.

MAD = _____

 

Year
2009
2009
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Rate (%)
7.8
8.2
8.7
8.9
2009
2009
2009
2009
9.6
9.5
Jun
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2010
Jul
9.4
Aug
Sep
Ocl
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
9.7
10.1
9.9
9.8
9.8
9.7
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
9.9
10.1
9.7
9.3
9.6
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
9.4
9.6
2010
9.5
2010
2010
2011
2011
9.8
9.4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
9.1
8.9
2011
8.7
9.1
8.8
9.1
8.9
2011
2011
2011
2011
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
9.1
9.2
8.7
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
Nov
Dec
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.1
8.1
7.8
7.7
2012
Jan
2012
Feb
2012
2012
2012
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
7.7
7.9
Transcribed Image Text:Year 2009 2009 Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Rate (%) 7.8 8.2 8.7 8.9 2009 2009 2009 2009 9.6 9.5 Jun 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 Jul 9.4 Aug Sep Ocl Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 9.7 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.7 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 9.9 10.1 9.7 9.3 9.6 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 9.4 9.6 2010 9.5 2010 2010 2011 2011 9.8 9.4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May 9.1 8.9 2011 8.7 9.1 8.8 9.1 8.9 2011 2011 2011 2011 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 9.1 9.2 8.7 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Nov Dec 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 7.8 7.7 2012 Jan 2012 Feb 2012 2012 2012 Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 7.7 7.9
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