The following results are an autoregression for US Exports to Mexico where the dependent variable is the lagged value of US Exports. a) Fill in the table b)Based on these regression results, what is your forecast of US Exports to Mexico for March 2005? c) Which of the two forecasts do you think is more accurate? Explai

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12) The following results are an autoregression for US Exports to Mexico where the dependent variable is the lagged value of US Exports. a) Fill in the table b)Based on these regression results, what is your forecast of US Exports to Mexico for March 2005? c) Which of the two forecasts do you think is more accurate? Explain.
Forecasting
Forecasting..
12) The following results are an autoregression for US Exports to Mexico where the dependent variable is
the lagged value of US Exports.
LN ld bo A
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R lt
Square
Standard Error
Observations
0.558
0.311
o o b A ee o lo o t
0.296
1299
48
YRAMMUS
TUSTUO
ANOVA
Significance
df
MS
Regression
Residual
Total
F
210
BE8.0
FRelotu
3.827E-05aupe a
eupe A bolmubA
Yona bsbnat2
enotovieedO
35017027
77583215
35017027
46
1686592
47
112600242
SET
Standard
Error
1778
0.124
Upper
Lower 95%AV 95%
9879
0.812
Coefficients
t Stat
P-value
Interceptnoigle 6300
Lagged Exports
3.54
0.0009192
2721
0.563
4.56
3.827E-05
0.315
1888S08A
1888S8
esasa
ublass
Based on these regression results, what is your forecast of US Exports to Mexico for March 2005?
bnebneta
rae 1owo
ainololiteo
fgeavatnl
bna T
Which of the two forecasts do you think is more accurate? Explain.
a.ca
0.0
se
0 d bluow doirlw) c00s donM 1o) ootzaM ol nog 2U to aool oy ai rfW (d
(on moi do
Transcribed Image Text:Forecasting Forecasting.. 12) The following results are an autoregression for US Exports to Mexico where the dependent variable is the lagged value of US Exports. LN ld bo A SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square Adjusted R lt Square Standard Error Observations 0.558 0.311 o o b A ee o lo o t 0.296 1299 48 YRAMMUS TUSTUO ANOVA Significance df MS Regression Residual Total F 210 BE8.0 FRelotu 3.827E-05aupe a eupe A bolmubA Yona bsbnat2 enotovieedO 35017027 77583215 35017027 46 1686592 47 112600242 SET Standard Error 1778 0.124 Upper Lower 95%AV 95% 9879 0.812 Coefficients t Stat P-value Interceptnoigle 6300 Lagged Exports 3.54 0.0009192 2721 0.563 4.56 3.827E-05 0.315 1888S08A 1888S8 esasa ublass Based on these regression results, what is your forecast of US Exports to Mexico for March 2005? bnebneta rae 1owo ainololiteo fgeavatnl bna T Which of the two forecasts do you think is more accurate? Explain. a.ca 0.0 se 0 d bluow doirlw) c00s donM 1o) ootzaM ol nog 2U to aool oy ai rfW (d (on moi do
Trend
Seasonally
Adjusted
Ratio of
Adjusted
Forecast
Original
Projection
12-month
Original to
Seasonal
Seasonal
Month
Series
MA
MA
Index
Index
Series
DATE
VALUE
Feb-01
Mar-01
13356.8
11959.6
97.6
136853
12253.7
15523.7
12322.1
13892.7
3
112.7
13768.7
Apr-01
May-01
14403.0
12390.5
13349.2
15108.0
13368.6
124588
13800.3
Jun-01
15051.0
110.8
6.
13772.3
12527.2
136903
Jul-01
11700.0
109.3
112405
Fof
Aug-01
13764.0
89.2
13110.5
Sep-01
12664.0
12908
12423.0
101.9
13503.0
9
Oct-01
13895.0
104.6
11873.1
127324
Forecasting
10
Nov-01
13214.0
110.6
12567.2
12800.8
14153.2
11
Dec-01
11319.0
105.1
12567.9
12869.1
135307
12
Jan-02
12061.5
13484.9
96.4
11740.1
12937.5
12473.5
13
Feb-02
89.4
94.0
94.0
12837.8
13005.9
122194
12368.2
14
Mar-02
92.3
97.6
97.6
12672.4
13074.3
12760.4
13954.0
13271.7
105.1
15
Apr-02
112.7
112.7
12376.4
13142.7
14817.9
14113.0
13247.6
16
Маy-02
107.7
107.7
13099.4
13211.0
14586.0
13204.1
14233.3
110.5
17
Jun-02
14214.0
110.8
13168.1
13279.4
14709.3
13134.3
108.2
18
Jul-02
109.3
109.3
13006.4
13347.8
14587.1
11607.0
13126.6
19
Aug-02
88.4
89.2
89.2
13006.3
11972.8
13416.2
13913.0
13139.0
20
Sep-02
105.9
101.9
101.9
13649.2
13334.0
13214.9
13484.6
13745.2
21
Oct-02
100.9
104.6
104.6
12743.8
13552.9
14180.7
14702.0
13282.1
22
Nov-02
110.7
110.6
110.6
13297.1
13621.3
15060.4
13908.0
13340.0
A105.1
23
Dec-02
104.3
105.1
13228.0
13689.7
14393.5
12161.0
13410.1
90.7
96.4
96.4
12613.4
13758.1
13264.6
24
Jan-03
12889.7
13479.2
95.6
94.0
13719.3
13826.5
12990.4
25
Feb-03
13292.6
13556.2
98.1
97.6
13619.5
13894.8
13561.3
26
Mar-03
15359.6
13673.3
112.3
112.7
13623.1
13963.2
15743.1
27
Apr-03
14646.4
13717.8
106.8
107.7
13594.5
14031.6
15117.3
28
Мay-03
15208.0
13769.6
110.4
110.8
13729.7
14100.0
15618.2
29
Jun-03
15003.2
13835.4
108.4
109.3
13728.6
14168.4
15483.8
30
Jul-03
12029.5
13870.6
86.7
89.2
13479.7
14236.7
12705.1
31
Aug-03
12989.7
13793.6
94.2
101.9
12743.4
14305.1
14581.6
32
Sep-03
Oct-03
14518.1
13892.3
104.5
104.6
13875.4
14373.5
15039.2
33
15554.6
13963.4
111.4
110.6
14068.3
14441.9
15967.7
34
Nov-03
14598.2
14020.9
104.1
105.1
13884.4
14510.3
15256.2
35
Dec-03
13834.0
14160.3
97.7
96.4
14348.6
14578.6
14055.7
36
Jan-04
13290.8
14193.7
93.6
94.0
14146.2
14647.0
13761.3
37
Feb-04
14341.7
14281.2
100.4
97.6
14694,4
14715.4
14362.2
38
Mar-04
17458.0
14456.0
120.8
112.7
15484.3
14783.8
16668.2
39
Apr-04
16014.0
14570.0
109.9
107.7
14863.9
14852.2
16001.4
40
Мay-04
16334.0
14663.8
111.4
110.8
14746.2
14920.5
16527.1
41
Jun-04
16438.0
14783.4
111.2
109.3
15041.5
14988.9
16380.6
42
Jul-04
13824.0
14932.9
92.6
89.2
15490.6
15057.3
13437.4
43
Аug-04
16060.0
15188.8
105.7
101.9
15755.5
15125.7
15418.1
16673.0
108.5
104.6
15934.9
15194.1
15897.8
Sep-04
Oct-04
44
15368.4
45
16975.0
15486.7
109.6
110.6
15352.9
15262.5
16875.0
Nov-04
16772.0
15667.9
107.0
105.1
15951.9
15330.8
16119.0
46
15983.1
15847.0
100.9
96.4
16577.7
15399.2
14846.9
47
Dec-04
Jan-05
16037.1
97.1
94.0
16574.6
15467.6
14532.3
48
15572.3
16185.9
99.6
97.6
16523.6
15536.0
15163.0
49
Feb-05
16127.0
SUMMARY
OUTPUT
AVOWA
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square 3
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations
0.803
0,645
bie
e
0.638
732
to
49
Significance n
F
ANOVA
SS
45823881
25186924
71010805
MS
45823881
535892
df
86
3.76219E-12
1
Regression
Residual
Total
47
48
Standard
Error
212.4
P-
value
0.0
Lower 95%
11758.0
53.5
Upper
95%
12612.6
83.3
Coefficients
12185.3
t Stat
57.4
Intercept
9.2
0.0
68.4
7.4
Trend
Transcribed Image Text:Trend Seasonally Adjusted Ratio of Adjusted Forecast Original Projection 12-month Original to Seasonal Seasonal Month Series MA MA Index Index Series DATE VALUE Feb-01 Mar-01 13356.8 11959.6 97.6 136853 12253.7 15523.7 12322.1 13892.7 3 112.7 13768.7 Apr-01 May-01 14403.0 12390.5 13349.2 15108.0 13368.6 124588 13800.3 Jun-01 15051.0 110.8 6. 13772.3 12527.2 136903 Jul-01 11700.0 109.3 112405 Fof Aug-01 13764.0 89.2 13110.5 Sep-01 12664.0 12908 12423.0 101.9 13503.0 9 Oct-01 13895.0 104.6 11873.1 127324 Forecasting 10 Nov-01 13214.0 110.6 12567.2 12800.8 14153.2 11 Dec-01 11319.0 105.1 12567.9 12869.1 135307 12 Jan-02 12061.5 13484.9 96.4 11740.1 12937.5 12473.5 13 Feb-02 89.4 94.0 94.0 12837.8 13005.9 122194 12368.2 14 Mar-02 92.3 97.6 97.6 12672.4 13074.3 12760.4 13954.0 13271.7 105.1 15 Apr-02 112.7 112.7 12376.4 13142.7 14817.9 14113.0 13247.6 16 Маy-02 107.7 107.7 13099.4 13211.0 14586.0 13204.1 14233.3 110.5 17 Jun-02 14214.0 110.8 13168.1 13279.4 14709.3 13134.3 108.2 18 Jul-02 109.3 109.3 13006.4 13347.8 14587.1 11607.0 13126.6 19 Aug-02 88.4 89.2 89.2 13006.3 11972.8 13416.2 13913.0 13139.0 20 Sep-02 105.9 101.9 101.9 13649.2 13334.0 13214.9 13484.6 13745.2 21 Oct-02 100.9 104.6 104.6 12743.8 13552.9 14180.7 14702.0 13282.1 22 Nov-02 110.7 110.6 110.6 13297.1 13621.3 15060.4 13908.0 13340.0 A105.1 23 Dec-02 104.3 105.1 13228.0 13689.7 14393.5 12161.0 13410.1 90.7 96.4 96.4 12613.4 13758.1 13264.6 24 Jan-03 12889.7 13479.2 95.6 94.0 13719.3 13826.5 12990.4 25 Feb-03 13292.6 13556.2 98.1 97.6 13619.5 13894.8 13561.3 26 Mar-03 15359.6 13673.3 112.3 112.7 13623.1 13963.2 15743.1 27 Apr-03 14646.4 13717.8 106.8 107.7 13594.5 14031.6 15117.3 28 Мay-03 15208.0 13769.6 110.4 110.8 13729.7 14100.0 15618.2 29 Jun-03 15003.2 13835.4 108.4 109.3 13728.6 14168.4 15483.8 30 Jul-03 12029.5 13870.6 86.7 89.2 13479.7 14236.7 12705.1 31 Aug-03 12989.7 13793.6 94.2 101.9 12743.4 14305.1 14581.6 32 Sep-03 Oct-03 14518.1 13892.3 104.5 104.6 13875.4 14373.5 15039.2 33 15554.6 13963.4 111.4 110.6 14068.3 14441.9 15967.7 34 Nov-03 14598.2 14020.9 104.1 105.1 13884.4 14510.3 15256.2 35 Dec-03 13834.0 14160.3 97.7 96.4 14348.6 14578.6 14055.7 36 Jan-04 13290.8 14193.7 93.6 94.0 14146.2 14647.0 13761.3 37 Feb-04 14341.7 14281.2 100.4 97.6 14694,4 14715.4 14362.2 38 Mar-04 17458.0 14456.0 120.8 112.7 15484.3 14783.8 16668.2 39 Apr-04 16014.0 14570.0 109.9 107.7 14863.9 14852.2 16001.4 40 Мay-04 16334.0 14663.8 111.4 110.8 14746.2 14920.5 16527.1 41 Jun-04 16438.0 14783.4 111.2 109.3 15041.5 14988.9 16380.6 42 Jul-04 13824.0 14932.9 92.6 89.2 15490.6 15057.3 13437.4 43 Аug-04 16060.0 15188.8 105.7 101.9 15755.5 15125.7 15418.1 16673.0 108.5 104.6 15934.9 15194.1 15897.8 Sep-04 Oct-04 44 15368.4 45 16975.0 15486.7 109.6 110.6 15352.9 15262.5 16875.0 Nov-04 16772.0 15667.9 107.0 105.1 15951.9 15330.8 16119.0 46 15983.1 15847.0 100.9 96.4 16577.7 15399.2 14846.9 47 Dec-04 Jan-05 16037.1 97.1 94.0 16574.6 15467.6 14532.3 48 15572.3 16185.9 99.6 97.6 16523.6 15536.0 15163.0 49 Feb-05 16127.0 SUMMARY OUTPUT AVOWA Regression Statistics Multiple R R Square 3 Adjusted R Square Standard Error Observations 0.803 0,645 bie e 0.638 732 to 49 Significance n F ANOVA SS 45823881 25186924 71010805 MS 45823881 535892 df 86 3.76219E-12 1 Regression Residual Total 47 48 Standard Error 212.4 P- value 0.0 Lower 95% 11758.0 53.5 Upper 95% 12612.6 83.3 Coefficients 12185.3 t Stat 57.4 Intercept 9.2 0.0 68.4 7.4 Trend
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