BUSN 625 Wk 3 Discussion

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School

American Military University *

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Course

625

Subject

Statistics

Date

Jan 9, 2024

Type

docx

Pages

Uploaded by BaronFreedomHare31

Probability theory is a tool that aids in making decisions based on statistical analysis regarding a likely outcome. Percentages are typically used in which 0 is the least likely and 1 is the most likely that a thing or event will occur. The concept of probability theory attempts to create a structure to randomness in the form of a mathematical equation. An outcome divided by the total possible outcomes describes probability. Results based on undetermined outcomes that adopts principles of counterintuitive and contradiction, leads to the rise of paradoxes and puzzles. From this week’s learning material, we learned that a paradox is a statement or proposition that sounds reasonable from a rational standpoint, but leads to an outcome that seems illogical (Petocz and Sowey, 2017). Whereas, a puzzle is a solution that is out of line with our preconceived notions of an idea (Borovcnik and Kapadia, 2014). Intuition is that feeling that something is just not quite right, even if we cannot pinpoint why (Fox, 2022). However, people cannot trust intuition because most of their false intuitions are related to heuristics and other relatable concepts. Over time, society has evolved through trial and error. Intuition gives us that “heads up” that the environment is not its usual self and we need to make a decision on the fly based on rationality. Probability sticks to a set of standard practice that provides a logical expectation based on past sample data. In everyday life, we do not always have sample data readily available, thus, we make decisions based on our thinking patterns that have evolved over time to similar experiences. Borovcnik, M. and Kapadia, R. (2014). Probabilistic thinking presenting plural perspectives advances in mathematics education. Springer. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299669277_From_Puzzles_and_Parad oxes_to_Concepts_in_Probability Fox, E. (2022). Gut feelings: how does intuition work, anyway? Literary Hub. https://lithub.com/gut-feelings-how-does-intuition-work-anyway/ Petocz, P. and Sowey, E. (2017). A panorama of statistics: perspectives, puzzles, and paradoxes in statistics. John Wiley and Sons Publishing . https://myclassroom.apus.edu/d2l/le/enhancedSequenceViewer/140020? url=https%3A%2F%2Ff54cbe36-23a9-4505-85fe- e251f80ec34d.sequences.api.brightspace.com%2F140020%2Factivity %2F12461352%3FfilterOnDatesAndDepth%3D1

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BUSN 625 Wk 3 Discussion

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