prac.final.sol

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Statistics 251 Name: Section 2, Autumn 2020 Practice Final Exam Solutions CNetID: Time: 2 Hours Instructions: This exam contains 6 problems. Please make sure you attempt all problems. Please write your final answer for each problem in the provided box. Please show your work in the space below the box. If you need additional space for scratchwork, you may use the blank pages stapled to the end of the exam. Please do not write on the back side of pages . You will have 2 hours to complete this exam. You must take this exam between 10:30am and 12:30pm Chicago time on December 9, 2020. You must scan and upload the completed exam to Gradescope by 1:00pm Chicago time on December 9, 2020 . The use of outside material including books, notes, calculators, and electronic devices is not allowed. Due to the coronavirus situation, this exam will be take-home. Please sign below to affirm that you have followed these rules. Please sign below to affirm that you have followed these rules. Signature: Formulas Distribution Probability mass function or density Binomial X B ( n, p ) P ( X = k ) = n k p k (1 - p ) n - k , k = 0 , · · · , n Geometric X Geom ( p ) P ( X = k ) = (1 - p ) k - 1 p , k = 1 , 2 , 3 , · · · Poisson X Poisson ( λ ) P ( X = k ) = e - λ λ k k ! , k = 0 , 1 , 2 , · · · Normal X ∼ N ( μ, σ 2 ) f ( x ) = 1 2 π σ e - ( x - μ ) 2 2 σ 2 , x ( -∞ , ) Exponential X Exp ( λ ) f ( t ) = λe - λt , x [0 , ) Gamma X Gamma ( α, λ ) f ( t ) = Γ ( α ) - 1 λ α t α - 1 e - λt , x [0 , ) The error function Φ( x ) = 1 2 π Z x -∞ e - x 2 2 dx has values given by the following table. a -2.58 -1.96 -1.65 -1.28 0 1.28 1.65 1.96 2.58 Φ( a ) 0.005 0.025 0.05 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.95 0.975 0.995 1
Problem 1 (10 points) Suppose A, B are two events such that P ( A ) = 0 . 3 , P ( B ) = 0 . 4 , and P ( A B ) = 0 . 5. (a) (2.5 points) Find P ( A | B ). Answer: 0 . 5 We find that P ( A | B ) = P ( A B ) P ( B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) - P ( A B ) P ( B ) = 0 . 2 0 . 4 = 0 . 5 . (b) (2.5 points) Are A and B independent? Answer: No. We find that P ( A B ) 6 = P ( A ) · P ( B ). (c) (2.5 points) Find P ( A c B ). Answer: 0 . 2 We find that P ( A c B ) = P ( B ) - P ( A B ) = 0 . 4 - 0 . 2 = 0 . 2 . (d) (2.5 points) Let X = I A , Y = I B . Find the correlation ρ ( X, Y ). Answer: 2 14 21 We find that ρ ( X, Y ) = Cov( I A , I B ) p Var( I A )Var( I B ) = P ( A B ) - P ( A ) P ( B ) p ( P ( A ) - P ( A ) 2 )( P ( B ) - P ( B ) 2 ) = 0 . 08 0 . 21 · 0 . 24 = 2 14 21 . 2
Problem 2 (10 points) If U is uniform on (0 , 2 π ) and Z is independent of X and exponential with rate 1, show that the random variables X and Y defined by X = 2 Z cos U Y = 2 Z sin U are independent standard normal random variables. Answer: The joint density of U and Z is f U,Z ( u, z ) = 1 (0 , 2 π ) ( u ) · 1 2 π e - z . The Jacobian of the map from U, Z to X, Y is given by J = cos U 2 Z - 2 Z sin U sin U 2 Z 2 Z cos U = 1 . Finally, solving for U, Z in terms of X, Y , we find that Z = 1 2 ( X 2 + Y 2 ) U = arctan( Y/X ) . We conclude that the joint density of X, Y is given by f X,Y ( x, y ) = 1 2 π e - 1 2 ( x 2 + y 2 ) = 1 2 π e - 1 2 x 2 1 2 π e - 1 2 y 2 , which is the density of i.i.d. standard normal random variables. 3
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Problem 3 (10 points) Let X 1 , X 2 , . . . , X n be i.i.d. random variables. (a) (5 points) Calculate E [ X 1 | X 1 + · · · + X n = x ] Answer: x n By symmetry, we have that E [ X i | X 1 + · · · + X n = x ] is independent of i . We thus find that n E [ X 1 | X 1 + · · · + X n = x ] = n X i =1 E [ X i | X 1 + · · · + X n = x ] = x, which implies that E [ X 1 | X 1 + · · · + X n = x ] = x n . (b) (5 points) If X 1 , X 2 are exponential with parameter λ , find the conditional variance Var( X 1 | X 1 + X 2 = x ). Answer: 1 12 x 2 Let Y = X 1 and X = X 1 + X 2 so that the Jacobian of the map from X 1 , X 2 to X, Y is 1. The joint density of X 1 , X 2 is f ( x 1 , x 2 ) = λ 2 e - λ ( x 1 + x 2 ) , which means that the joint density of X, Y is f X,Y ( x, y ) = 1 [0 ,x ] ( y ) λ 2 e - λx . The conditional density of Y given X is therefore f Y | X ( y | x ) = f X,Y ( x, y ) f X ( x ) = 1 [0 ,x ] ( y ) 1 x We have that Var( X 1 | X 1 + X 2 = x ) = E [ Y 2 | X = x ] - E [ Y | X = x ] 2 = Z x 0 y 2 1 x dy - 1 4 x 2 = 1 12 x 2 . 4
Problem 4 (15 points) Let U 1 and U 2 be two independent uniform random variables on [0 , 1]. Define X = min ( U 1 , U 2 ) Y = max ( U 1 , U 2 ) . Find (a) (5 points) the probability density function f X of X Answer: 1 [0 , 1] ( x )2(1 - x ) We have F X ( x ) = 1 - P ( X x ) = 1 - P ( U 1 x ) P ( U 2 x ) = 1 [0 , 1] ( x )(1 - (1 - x ) 2 ) , which means that f X ( x ) = F 0 X ( x ) = 1 [0 , 1] ( x )2(1 - x ) . (b) (5 points) the joint density function f X,Y of ( X, Y ) Answer: 2 · 1 0 x y 1 ( x, y ) Notice that if x y , then F X,Y ( x, y ) = P ( X x, Y y ) = P ( U 1 x, U 2 y )+ P ( U 2 x, U 1 y ) - P ( U 1 x, U 2 x ) = 2 xy - x 2 . This implies that f X,Y ( x, y ) = x y F X,Y ( x, y ) = 2 1 0 x y 1 ( x, y ) . (c) (5 points) P ( X 1 / 2 | Y 1 / 2) Answer: 2/3 We have that P ( X 1 / 2 | Y 1 / 2) = R 1 / 2 0 R 1 1 / 2 f X,Y ( x, y ) dydx R 1 1 / 2 R y 0 f X,Y ( x, y ) dxdy = 1 / 2 3 / 4 = 2 3 . 5
Problem 5 (20 points) Let T 1 and T 2 be two independent exponential variables with rates λ 1 and λ 2 , respectively. Define T min = min ( T 1 , T 2 ), and let X min be a random variable which equals 1 if T 1 < T 2 and 2 if T 2 < T 1 . (a) (5 points) The distribution of T min is exponential with some parameter λ . Find λ . Answer: λ 1 + λ 2 We find that F T min ( t ) = 1 - P ( T min t ) = 1 - P ( T 1 t ) P ( T 2 t ) = 1 - e - ( λ 1 + λ 2 ) t , which means that T min is exponential with parameter λ 1 + λ 2 . (b) (5 points) Find P ( X min = 1). Answer: λ 1 λ 1 + λ 2 We find that P ( X min = 1) = P ( T 1 < T 2 ) = Z 0 Z t 2 0 λ 1 λ 2 e - λ 1 t 1 - λ 2 t 2 dt 1 dt 2 = λ 2 Z 0 e - λ 2 t 2 (1 - e - λ 1 t 2 ) dt 2 = 1 - λ 2 λ 1 + λ 2 = λ 1 λ 1 + λ 2 . (c) (10 points) Show that T min and X min are independent. Answer: We compute that P ( T min t, X min = 1) = P ( t T 1 < T 2 ) = Z t Z t 2 t λ 1 λ 2 e - λ 1 t 1 - λ 2 t 2 dt 1 dt 2 = λ 2 Z t e - λ 2 t 2 ( e - λ 1 t - e - λ 1 t 2 ) dt 2 = e - ( λ 1 + λ 2 ) t - λ 2 e - ( λ 1 + λ 2 ) t λ 1 + λ 2 = λ 1 λ 1 + λ 2 e - ( λ 1 + λ 2 ) t = P ( T min t ) P ( X min = 1) , which gives independence. 6
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Problem 6 (20 points) A box contains three coins, of which two are fair and one is unfair, meaning it lands heads with proability 1. (a) (5 points) If you choose a coin at random and toss it, what is the probability it lands heads? Answer: 2 3 The probability of getting heads is P ( H ) = P ( H | fair) P (fair) + P ( H | unfair) P (unfair) = 1 2 · 2 3 + 1 · 1 3 = 2 3 . (b) (15 points) If you choose a coin at random and get heads when tossing it, what is the probability it is the unfair coin? Answer: 1 2 We find that P (unfair | H ) = P ( H | unfair) P (unfair) P ( H ) = 1 · 1 3 2 3 = 1 2 . 7
Problem 7 (15 points) Consider the sample average X n = ( X 1 + X 2 + · · · + X n ) /n of n i.i.d. random variables X 1 , . . . , X n which are uniformly distributed on [0 , 1]. (a) (5 points) Use Markov’s inequality to upper bound P ( X n 0 . 99). Answer: 50 99 Notice that E [ X n ] = 1 2 . We find that P ( X n 0 . 99) E [ X n ] 0 . 99 = 50 99 . (b) (10 points) Use the Central Limit Theorem to find n so that P ( X n < 0 . 51) is approximately 90%. Answer: 1365 Notice that Var( X n ) = 1 12 n . The CLT shows that P ( X n - 0 . 5 < a 12 n ) Φ( a ) , so setting a = 0 . 01 · 12 n we find that P ( X n < 0 . 51) Φ(0 . 01 · 12 n ) . Since Φ(1 . 28) = 0 . 9, we need 0 . 01 · 12 n = 1 . 28, meaning that n 128 2 12 = 4096 3 1365. 8