Ten Ways We Get the Odds Wrong

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Psychology

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Dec 6, 2023

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"Ten Ways We Get the Odds Wrong” Comprehension Questions 1-“What does Szalavitz mean in paragraph 3 when she says, “The human brain is exquisitely adapted to respond to risk”? According to Szalavitz, the human brain has developed to recognize and react to possible dangers and uncertainties effectively. Over the history of human evolution, this adaptation has resulted in cognitive processes and emotional reactions that are optimized for making rapid judgments when faced with danger. 2-Why, according to Szalavitz, have human beings been unable to develop effective responses to risks posed by “statistics, media coverage, and fear-mongering politicians” (3)? According to Szalavitz, the human brain's natural adaptation to immediate threats—such as predators or physical dangers—has not kept up with more modern advancements like media, politics, statistics, and communication. There are difficulties in properly managing risks presented in various forms since the brain does not have cognitive shortcuts to quickly analyze and respond to these unique uncertainties. 3-How does Szalavitz explain the following in her essay? We fear snakes but not cars: Due to evolutionary biases, people are more afraid of old hazards like snakes than of more contemporary ones like vehicles. We fear spectacular, unlikely events: Risk analysis is skewed by fear, leading us to overestimate the likelihood of spectacular but uncommon incidents because of their media attention and memorability.

We fear cancer but not heart disease: Risks that do not result in immediate harm, including those that cause long-term health problems, concern people less. “We fear pesticides in our neighbor’s yard but not in our own yard: When we think we can control or consciously pick a danger, our sense of control and reward lessens dread. We speed up when we put on seat belts: Behavior changes due to risk compensation; feeling safer when wearing a seat belt may lead to increased risk-taking when driving. We fear nuclear power but not sunlight: Because of our innate prejudices, we are more likely to tolerate the dangers connected to recognizable, "natural" factors like sunshine while finding novel, artificial threats—like nuclear power—to be terrifying. 4-What is a “risk thermostat” (21)? What does Szalavitz mean when she says that “one person’s risk thermostat may have different settings for different types of risk”? The term "risk thermostat" describes a person's natural inclination to keep their degree of risk constant throughout their life. According to Szalavitz, each person has a desired degree of risk, and this "thermostat" may be adjusted differently for different dangers. For instance, someone could invest money cautiously yet engage in riskier physical activities, such as extreme sports, where they assume more significant bodily risks. 5-According to Szalavitz, what are the consequences of overestimating the world's dangers? How does understanding our “innate biases” (29) help us manage the way we respond to risk?” It is possible to have long-term worry, anxiety, and adverse physiological effects from overestimating the threats in the world. Being aware of our inherent prejudices enables us to

compensate for them, which improves our ability to control our reactions. It helps people avoid worrying about imagined threats, manage risks skillfully, and make more informed decisions. Purpose and audience 1-Szalavitz states her thesis at the “end of paragraph 4. What information does she present in her first four paragraphs? Would readers be able to understand her idea without this information? Explain. Szalavitz gives background information on the development of risk assessment in the human brain, the difficulties presented by contemporary uncertainty, and the influence of emotions on decision-making in the first four paragraphs. Without this material, readers would find it difficult to completely comprehend her thesis because these lines set the stage for explaining how people frequently underestimate hazards. Understanding why people make decisions in the face of danger requires understanding the evolutionary backdrop and the function of emotions. 2-What preconceived ideas does Szalavitz assume her readers have about risk? How can you tell? Szalavitz assumes readers could have preconceived notions about danger based on emotional reactions, prevalent cultural prejudices, and evolutionary instincts. She adds that due to evolutionary considerations, readers may view natural hazards as less dangerous and have innate anxieties about some threats, such as snakes. Her investigation of how human brains are wired to react to danger and how certain biases affect how risk is perceived reveals the assumption. 3-What is Szalavitz’s purpose in writing this essay? To inform readers? To persuade them? Or does she have some other meaning in mind?

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Szalavitz's primary goal in authoring this article is to educate readers. The general tone and substance of the report indicate a concentration on delivering knowledge about how human perception of danger is impacted by evolutionary, emotional, and sociological variables, even while she uses persuasive tactics to persuade readers of the validity of her ideas. The essay aims to help readers better understand why risk assessment errors are common. 4-Szalavitz’s essay appeared in Psychology Today, a publication aimed at readers who are interested in psychology. How would Szalavitz have to revise this essay to make it appeal to readers with more general interests? Szalavitz should consider reducing psychology-related technical language and terminology to make it more readable for those with broader interests. She might avoid using jargon that could be specialized to the area and instead use more understandable examples and analogies. She could also include more concrete examples and practical ramifications of the ideas covered to make the material more approachable for a wider audience. Style and structure 1-Szalavitz uses headings and subheadings to introduce the sections of her essay. Why? Would her essay be as effective without these headings and subheadings? Szalavitz gives her work a distinct organizational style by using headers and subheadings. This makes it easier for readers to go between the various sections and comprehend how her argument develops. The essay may be more successful with these headers and subheadings because it may be harder for readers to understand the key ideas of each part and follow the essay's logical flow.

2-Szalavitz presents ten examples to support her thesis. Does she give enough examples? Does she include a fair range of models? Are all her measures necessary? Are they equally appropriate and convincing? Szalavitz provides various examples to bolster her argument, covering various risk perception facets. Even while each model helps to highlight a different aspect of the idea, some could be more important than others. Overall, the selection seems acceptable and compelling, though readers may disagree about the need and efficacy of some instances. 3-Szalavitz draws some of her examples from research sources. Would the essay have been convincing if all of Szalavitz’s examples were removed from her own experience? Explain. Szalavitz's theories gain credibility when she uses instances from research sources that offer empirical data to support her assertions. Because individual experiences might be subjective and not represent universal patterns, depending exclusively on personal experience may have rendered the article less compelling to a broader audience. Including examples from research lends the piece more impartiality and increases its overall persuasiveness. 4-Does Szalavitz arrange her examples in any particular order —from least important to most important? Explain. The sequence in which Szalavitz presents her cases needs to be clarified in the text. But she appears to arrange them to have a cumulative impact, beginning with broad ideas and then going into more examples. This format makes it easier for readers to follow the concepts as they logically flow, giving them a starting point for examining more complex cases.

5-Vocabulary Project. At several points in her essay, Szalavitz defines some basic terms — for example, risk (3), fear (5), and emotions (5). Why does she think she has to define these terms for readers? Szalavitz probably provides definitions for these common phrases so that readers will have a common understanding. She creates a common vocabulary and structure for discussing the many ideas surrounding risk perception by giving precise definitions. This makes it easier for readers to understand the author's distinct meanings and interact with the information more successfully, regardless of how experienced they are with the subject. Journal Entry Szalavitz claims that emotions lead people to make rash judgments, and her claim has some validity. Emotions greatly influence decisions because our evolutionary reactions to urgent challenges influence them. It's important to understand that although emotions allow for quick evaluations, they may also be subtle and don't necessarily result in rash behavior. Szalavitz exaggerates her argument by presenting emotions as the only expedient for making decisions. Emotions and reason interact dynamically in human cognition, which is a complicated process. Although emotions can sway our decisions, people can make rational choices, mainly when they are well-informed and possess critical thinking abilities. A more thorough understanding of how people deal with risk and uncertainty is made possible by acknowledging the complex balance between emotions and reason.

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