AHC Steps 3-4

Hypothesis è ê Evidence è (H1a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be resolved diplomatically . ê Evidence #1 During the 1996 presidential elections, the US deployed two aircraft carriers to the Taiwan Strait to prevent a war. ê Evidence #2 According to reports, Chen Shui-bian agreed to send delegations to the mainland to discuss the situation. ê Evidence #3 Ban Ki Moon, the UN Secretary-General, and Hu Jianto, the head of China's ruling party, had also discussed an intervention. Hypothesis è ê Evidence è (H1b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will not be resolved diplomatically . ê Evidence #1 The Taiwan National Security Bureau claims that the PRC is planning on holding a TSU win to generate tension. This allegation was made by an inside source. ê Evidence #2 According to reports, President Chen Shui-bian has ordered the Taiwan Defense Forces to increase their alert level to prevent the PRC from disrupting the elections. ê Evidence #3 The US has warned that it will not support Taiwan if the situation gets worse. President Barack Obama and the White House stated that the US cannot guarantee the safety of Taiwan. Hypothesis è ê Evidence è (H2a) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will be resolved with limited intervention. ê Evidence #1 The number of fighter regiments patrolling in the Taiwan Strait has increased by 50 percent. ê Evidence #2 The People's Liberation Army has reportedly started carrying out missile tests in the Taiwan Strait. These tests have been verified by the US Air Force. ê Evidence #3 The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) reportedly deployed two anti-ship submarines from the port of Ningbo. The National Security Agency confirmed that these vessels were ordered to prepare for an extended operation. Hypothesis è ê Evidence è (H2b) List three pieces of evidence indicating the crisis will not be resolved with limited intervention. ê Evidence #1 The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has issued several mobilization orders to various ground and air units in the PRC. These orders are believed to be for deployment to the military district located in the city of Nanjing, which is across from Taiwan. ê Evidence #2 The US Strategic Command reported that two regiments of the Chinese