Gabrielle Lee AHC Step 7
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AHC Step 7 Analyzing The PRC-Taiwan Crisis
Gabrielle Lee
Professor Robert Amato
INTL401
May 14, 2022
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Section I: Introduction
This paper aims to analyze three different scenarios that could occur following the
Taiwan elections. One of these is a direct attack from the PRC. The PRC adamantly opposes
Taiwan's independence and will retaliate if it continues to push for it. The second scenario is a
political solution. In this scenario, the PRC and Taiwan would reach a peaceful resolution
through direct or indirect negotiations. The third scenario is a limited intervention. In this
scenario, the PRC would use its military might to force Taiwan politicians to adopt policies that
align with the PRC's agenda.
Section II–Outcome Assessed to be most likely to occur: Direct Attack
Based on my analysis of the current situation between the PRC and Taiwan, the chances
of the PRC launching a direct assault on Taiwan have increased significantly. The PRC has
already shown that it is prepared to use non-violent means against the independence movement
in Taiwan. In 2019, the PRC passed an anti-cessation law, which explicitly states that the
country's military will use non-peaceful means against Taiwan. Evidence supporting the direct
attack hypothesis can be found in the activities of the PRC's military units, such as the People's
Liberation Army Air Force and the People's Liberation Army Navy. After the PRC started to
move its military units, communication between them increased dramatically. (He, 2009). The
Taiwanese Intelligence Agency revealed that the PRC's military units started to mobilize around
45 days before the elections. The movement of these units is an indication that the PRC is
preparing for a direct attack. It is also possible that military actions were carried out in
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preparation for an exercise. If the PRC planned to carry out an exercise, then the actions would
have been publicized. The command of the missile regiments revealed that the 98th and 99th
regiments successfully test-fired two of the country's newly developed short-range missiles.
These weapons demonstrated the accuracy and capabilities of the PRC's missile systems. This is
also an indication that the country's military can launch a direct attack on Taiwan. Aside from
preparing its military, the PRC must ensure that its weapons are reliable and accurate. At this
time, the PRC is also moving its military units to ensure that it can respond to any potential
attack on Taiwan. (Bi, 2002). As the election nears, the PRC's military units are ready to deploy.
According to US Air Force intelligence reports, the 96th missile regiment is testing its equipment
and preparing for another missile launch. Other military units have also been ordered to prepare
for an attack. The mobilization of military units is a crucial part of the PRC's response to a
potential attack on Taiwan. It can be carried out either as a training exercise or an attack on the
island. Usually, these orders are given when the country's military is expected to face an attack.
Despite the PRC's military actions, the PRC still decided to reach out to the UN to resolve the
issue with Taiwan. Although it is possible that the PRC could launch a direct attack on Taiwan, it
is also possible that the country would prefer to avoid using extreme force. The PRC believes
that it can still reach a peaceful solution through dialogue. (Bi, 2002).
Section III– Second Most Likely to Occur: Political Solution
If the two sides were to continue their efforts toward a peaceful solution, this scenario
would have been the second most likely outcome. However, since both sides have shown their
commitment to peacefully addressing the issue, I believe this scenario would have been possible.
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Ninety days before the election, Taiwanese media reported that Ma Ying-jeon's representatives
were in the PRC. This evidence is significant as it shows that Ma Ying-jeon's representatives
were in the PRC several weeks before the election. This shows that she is more inclined to
engage with the PRC and resolve the issue through peaceful means. As the situation between the
two sides worsened, the PRC mobilized its military forces. In response, the president of Taiwan,
Chen Shui-Bian, issued an alert status to show the PRC that it cannot interfere with the
upcoming elections on the island. In response, the president of Taiwan, Chen Shui-Bian, issued
an alert status to show the PRC that it cannot interfere with the upcoming elections on the island.
He also stated that Taiwan was considering reducing its military alert status as a goodwill
gesture. (He, 2009). Not only did Chen-Bian signal that he wanted a peaceful solution, but the
PRC's leader, Hu Jintao, also asked the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon to intervene. The
UN Security Council agreed to address the issue. This is a massive step toward a peaceful
resolution. Despite the previous controversies involving the UN, Hu Jintao's attempt to reach out
to the world authority is a positive sign for the ongoing efforts toward a peaceful solution.
Although the actions of the PRC will not be as bold as they were before, I believe that the
conflict between Taiwan and the PRC will eventually be resolved through a political resolution.
Despite the efforts made by both sides to reach a peaceful solution, the PRC continued to
mobilize its forces up to 20 days before the elections. Although the actions of the PRC will not
be as bold as they were before, I still believe that the conflict between Taiwan and the PRC will
eventually be resolved through a political resolution. (Bi, 2002).
Section IV- Least Likely to Occur: Limited Intervention
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The abundance of evidence supporting the direct attack hypothesis made it difficult to
rank this scenario. After carefully reviewing the available data, I decided to rank this as the third
most likely scenario, with a 75 percent chance of happening. In this scenario, the PRC will use
its military force and political position to try and convince the Taiwanese people not to vote for a
candidate that does not align with the PRC's goals and principles. It will also crush any attempt
by the current or elected president of Taiwan to seek independence. The PRC has a long history
of using non-violent methods to suppress any attempt at independence. Due to the involvement
of the UN, I believe that the UN can prevent the PRC from carrying out a direct attack. However,
there is a high chance of limited intervention. A report released by Taiwan media revealed that
the country's security bureau uncovered plans by the PRC to heighten tensions if the election of
Shu Chin-Chiang is carried out. This scenario is believed to be since the candidate's campaign
has veiled references to Taiwan's independence. Chin-Chiang has accused Ma Ying-Jeon of
being a part of the PRC's plan to influence the elections. However, the PRC and its news media
deny these allegations. The PRC uses subtle warnings and hints to try and influence the election.
At this point, the PRC is only using its limited political power to try and influence the elections.
However, these minor political activities soon turn into large-scale military scare tactics. (He,
2009). The PRC's General Liang Guanglie carried out naval exercises near Taiwan in response to
Chen Shui-bian's increasing military alert. These exercises aimed to show the PRC's capabilities
and show its willingness to use non-violent measures if necessary. Around 45 days before the
elections, the PRC tried to intimidate Taiwan. In response, the PRC's official news agency
Xinhua released footage of fighter planes and bombers carrying out air-to-air combat and
conducting naval exercises against a group allegedly trying to destabilize the PRC. Although it is
not clear when the footage was taken, it shows the PRC's military capabilities and willingness to
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use force against Taiwan. This act of intimidation is also aimed at showing the public that the
PRC will do whatever it takes to prevent the independence movement from gaining momentum.
(APUS, 2022) On May 9, the 98th and 99th missile tests were carried out, which were said to be
part of a plan to improve the accuracy of the missiles. The tests were regarded as part of a scare
campaign to prevent the people from supporting independence. The PRC's campaign to show its
military might continue 40 days before the elections. The 96th Missile Regiment was also
preparing to launch another test of the CSS-6. Since Taiwan is remarkably close to the target
area, this was regarded as a credible threat. The test was also used in a direct attack scenario due
to the reliability of the missiles. Aside from improving the accuracy of the missiles, the tests
were also aimed at intimidating the people of Taiwan. The PRC has also increased its fighter
regiment patrols in the Taiwan Strait. This is a direct response to the independence movement
and shows the PRC's willingness to use force against Taiwan. The PRC's campaign aims to
prevent Taiwan from becoming an independent country. If its political and military actions can
intimidate the people of Taiwan enough, then it will not be able to achieve this. (Bi, 2002)
Section V: Conclusion
The ongoing feud between Taiwan and China has been a sensitive issue that has been
discussed in several ways. As the presidential election approaches, Taiwan gaining independence
from China is once again being brought up. This is because Shu Chin-Chiang, the candidate for
the TSU political party, is trying to utilize his platform to talk about this issue with the people of
Taiwan. Initially, the discussions between the governments of China and Taiwan were successful,
with both sides showing that they were willing to work together to find a solution to the problem.
However, since Chin-Chiang still refuses to compromise, the situation was escalating. In 1996,
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China launched missiles into the Taiwan Straits following the presidential elections. Since China
has been conducting various military activities and conducting air and sea exercises, it is
believed that the tensions between the two sides could escalate. This could lead to a direct attack
on Taiwan. However, it is also highly likely that this issue will be resolved through limited
intervention. The PRC has made it clear that it will not allow the independence movement in
Taiwan to gain momentum. It has also warned the people of Taiwan that it will use force against
them if they decide to fight for independence. Based on my analysis, I believe the PRC will
attack Taiwan regardless of the actions of the independence movement. Despite this, both the
PRC and Taiwan have shown a willingness to reach out to the UN for assistance. This shows
their resolve to prevent the independence movement from gaining momentum. (APUS, 2022).
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Works Cited
He, Kai, and Huiyun Feng. “Leadership, Regime Security, and China’s Policy Toward Taiwan:
Prospect Theory and Taiwan Crises.” Pacific review 22, no. 4 (2009): 501–521. Accessed
May 14, 2022
Bi, Jianhai. “The Role of the Military in the PRC Taiwan Policymaking: A Case Study of the
Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995-1996.” The Journal of contemporary China 11, no. 32 (2002): 539–
572. Accessed May 14, 2022
“China-Taiwan Crisis.” American Public University System (APUS), ACH Exercise, INTL 401
Critical Analysis, Spring 2022 Accessed May 14, 2022