302 Syllabus Fall 2023

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Concordia University *

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302

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Political Science

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Dec 6, 2023

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POLI 302 A – CAUSES OF WAR Poli 302 A Professor J. Spencer-Churchill Fall 2023 julian.spencer-churchill@concordia.ca Monday – 08:45-11:30. Room: MB S1.401 Office Hours: H-1225-01; Mon/Tue: 11:30-12:30 Lab Hours: H-1225-01 or via Zoom (student choice) Mon: 12:30-13:30. TA Office Hours: Thurs 2-3 pm; TA ZOOM Link: https://us05web.zoom.us/s/8107567389?pwd=acoacXrZdd3jTFB93xEhrbactMlGgu.1 TA: James; TA E-mail: jamesformapoli302a@gmail.com Course Description This course examines some of the prominent causes of war from the perspective of Kenneth Waltz’s three images: the individual, the state, and the system. Many of the issues we will deal with are of current or recent interest to policy decision-makers. The emphasis of the course, culminating in a qualitative and two statistics papers, will thus be on understanding and applying many of these theories to ongoing problems. I am interested in developing your ability to reason critically about these issues. This course presumes you have taken Poli 205 Introduction to International Relations and are familiar with the main paradigms and approaches to the study of international relations. The course will proceed through twenty-four lectures on the causes of war, comprising two lectures per week (see the lecture dates). These powerpoint lectures will be available on Moodle, as will lecture notes focused on the relevant theory. The notes for a given lecture must be read in their entirety before the student attends class. Students will be expected to complete the assigned readings prior to class each week, and be prepared to discuss them in class. There will be four weekly quizzes in class: the two asking questions from the lectures, and the third and fourth will be asking questions regarding the readings. Required Texts (available on amazon.ca as a kindle) Poli 302 Reader, 2023 Edition Sara Mitchell and John Vasquez (eds), Conflict, Peace and War (Los Angeles: Sage, 2014), ISBN 978-1-4522-4449-5, Kindle edition. Get SPSS from Concordia University for free and Install it on your computer. See instructions below: https://www.concordia.ca/it/support/learn-teach-work-from-home.html You can also use the virtual library console to make online use of SPSS: https://rdweb.wvd.microsoft.com/arm/webclient/index.html 1

Students are expected to be familiar with excel before the beginning of class, as this significantly accelerates data creation for SPSS. Required : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwbho0CgEAE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0T3PHlhesY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvQiGEfjRWo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2t3FDi98GBk Required : Excel 2013 Tutorial: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLS7iHfqXNVhJSE4Qs7xP93ThqlNVn9faZ Intermediate Excel Tutorial https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFEA6BE242E5007F7 Optional : Advanced Excel Tutorial https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL55E3ACEB25ACD567 Excel VBA Tutorial https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLS7iHfqXNVhK3yzd_4XS5k4zsvnu2mkJC Excel Tips and Tricks https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLS7iHfqXNVhJvdFXgsZlfZeAXptzzSwET Course requirements 2 short-question in class exams each 7.5% Lects 11 and 19 Reading Quizzes 10% Lect 1-10, 13-20, 23-24 Lecture Quizzes 10% Lect 1-10, 13-20, 23-24 Hand Regression Assignment #1 2% Due Lect 5 Regression by Computer Assignment 2% Due Lect 5 Qualitative Paper Proposal 2% Due Lect 9 Regression Critique Assignment 2% Due Lect 7 Dataset for Stats Assign #1/#2 each 1% Due Lect 9 and 17 Condorcet Assignment 1% Due Lect 13 Mixed Game Strategy Assignment 1% Due Lect 17 Attendance for Class Activities 6% Statistics Assignment #1/#2 each 6% Due Lect 15 and 23 6,000 word Qualitative Final Paper 20% Due Lect 23 Final Exam 15% Time set by examination office The lecture transcripts and the video lectures are on the Moodle site, with the video lectures being under Yuja. The mid-terms consist of two in-class short-question exams that will be given on Lects 11 and 19. There are ten 2-minute quizzes based on the readings from the assigned text and reader covering both lectures for that week. There are ten 2-minute quizzes based on the lectures for that week. The two mid-term exams will be comprised of a list of approximately twelve questions that require short answers. Answers must be in your own words, and not cut-and-pasted from the notes. The final exam will be scheduled during 2

the final exam period. If you do the readings each week, the exams should present no difficulty. There is a required text and reader for this course, both of which can be purchased from Concordia’s Downtown Bookstore. If they run out, you must reserve one individually at the bookstore. Students will be expected to complete the assigned readings prior to class each week. Notes for the class lecture notes are available on the Moodle site. The notes for a given lecture must be read in their entirety before the student attends class. Class assignments consist of a game theory (Condorcet Paradox assignment), and a linear regression assignment. The students must also submit a 750 word critique of an international relations journal article making use of the statistical techniques covered in class (linear regression, time series, logistic regression). Good journals with statistics to examine are the Journal of Conflict Resolution , Journal of Peace Research , International Interactions , American Political Science Review , Peace Research , Political Science Quarterly , International Studies Quarterly , and also (occasional statistical articles) International Security , Security Studies , International Organization , World Politics , British Journal of Political Science . There are two statistical course papers and a major essay. The dataset must be approved before work begins on the statistics papers. The larger course paper consists of a final 6,000-word (not including footnotes and bibliography) paper using qualitative methodology and consists of a proposal and a final paper. You must get approval for your topics by submitting a proposal (the outline for which is on the course website). The proposals may be resubmitted for reevaluation to a higher grade an unlimited number of times before the due date of the paper. The student is recommended to schedule a meeting with the professor regarding their paper ideas. The principal case examined in the paper must not be one used or presented in class, and must be a past historical one. One of the citation methods outlined on the library website must be used. I do prefer footnotes though, and the citation MUST include the page number in the source. The final course paper should have 30+ academic sources. The papers must be printed single-sided. The paper must be handed with the graded proposal stapled to the front of the paper, otherwise the proposal grade will not be recorded. Late submissions will be penalized and comments will not be provided. Papers not handed at the beginning of class on the due date are considered late. Note that all research involving humans requires the prior submission and approval of an ethics Summary Protocol Form (SPF). Contact the professor for this procedure. Know that in the course of your paper research that many of the books are not at Concordia, but they may be inter-library loaned with a delay of about three weeks, so plan ahead. The Concordia inter-library loan website is at: http://library.concordia.ca/find/interlibrary-loans/ The library also has useful research services (514-848-2424). Michelle Lake, extension 7361 (Political Science Subject Librarian) and Alex Guindon, extension 7754 (dataset, or Data Services Librarian) are available to provide advice. Students are encouraged to obtain a BCI card from the library circulation services, for direct borrowing access at other Montreal university libraries. The library maintains a 3

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Poli 302 library-related weg-page. Students should consult the website and become familiar with Find It Concordia, the Political Science Complete database, the Article Delivery service from Vanier library, the database for dissertations, and scholar.google.com. Lecture Topics and Reading Assignments 1. Introduction and Review of Methodology – Sep 11 Video : Poli 302 Syllabus Lecture Video : Poli 302 Lect 1 Methodology Video Class Activity: Model Creation, Methods of Agreement and Difference 2 . Militarized Interstate Disputes and Enduring Rivalries – Sep 11 Video : Poli 302 Lect 2 MIDs and ERs Video 3. Statistics I : Regression by Hand - Sep 18 Video : Poli 302 Hand Regression Video : Poli Lect 1 Linear Algebra Solution Mitchell and Vasquez, 27-33, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Bremer, “Dangerous Dyads,” 5-26, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). For lectures 3-6, it is strongly recommended that students have SPSS installed on their own computers. Class Activity: Regression by Hand 4. Statistics II: Linear Regression, Multicollinearity, Heteroskedasticity – Sep 18 Video : Poli 302 Linear Ordinary Least Squares Regression Mitchell and Vasquez, 55-62, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Hensel et al., “Bones of Contention,” 35-54, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). 5. Statistics III : Time Series, Linear Transformation, Serial Autocorrelation - Sep 25 Video : Poli 302 Lect 5 Time Series Mitchell and Vasquez, 338-344, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Werner, “The Precarious Nature of Peace,” 323-337, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). 4

Class Activity: Time Series 6. Statistics IV: Logistic Regression, COW, Excel, Dataset Constructions – Sep 25 Video : Poli 302 Lect 6 Logistic Regression Video : Poli 302 Lect 6 Data Set Construction for Assignments Part I . Principal Contextual Theories of War 7. Deterrence Failure and War – Oct 2 Video : Poli 302 Lect 7 Deterrence Theory and War Mitchell and Vasquez, 317-322, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Asal and Beardsley, “Proliferation and International Crisis Behavior,” 303-316, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Class Activity: When does deterrence failure happen? 8. Land Power : Polarity, the Balance of Power, and War – Oct 2 Video : Poli 302 Lect 8 Balance of Power and War Victoria Tin-Bor Hui, Chapter Title: “Overcoming the Balance of Power,” in War and State Formation in Ancient China and Early Modern Europe (Cambridge: Cambridge UP, 2006), 67-79, Poli 302 Coursepack. Mitchell and Vasquez, 76-81, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Brett Ashley Leeds, “Alliances and the Expansion and Escalation of MIDs,” in Mitchell and Vasquez, 63-75, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Class Activity: Which realist theory of war? 9. Naval Power : Hegemonic Cycles and War – Oct 16 Video : Poli 302 Lecture: Hegemonic Theory and War: Parts 1 and Parts 2 Jack Levy, “Theories of General War,” World Politics (April 1985), 344-374, Poli 302 Coursepack Jack Levy, “Long Cycles, Hegemonic Transitions, and the Long Peace,” Kegley (ed.) The Long Postwar Peace (New York: Harper Collins, 1991), 147-176, Poli 302 Coursepack. Mitchell and Vasquez, 98-103, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Klein, Goertz and Diehl, “The New Rivalry Dataset,” 83-97, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). 5

Karen Rasler and William R. Thompson, “Global War and the Political Economy of Structural Change,” in Manus Midlarsky (ed), Handbook of War Studies II (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003), 301-331, Poli 302 Coursepack. Class Activity: Hegemonic Stability Theory or Balance of Power? 10. Games Theory – Oct 16 11. First Mid-Term Exam – Oct 23 Video : Games Theory Class Activity: Creation of a Game Part II . Focus: The Crisis Decision-Making Process 12. Individual Psychology, Misperceptions and War – Oct 23 Video : Poli 302 Lecture: Individual Psychology and War Video : Poli 302 Lecture: Misperception and War Deborah Larsen, Origins of Containment – A Psychological Explanation (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985), 24-65, Poli 302 Coursepack. Robert Jervis, “Hypotheses on Misperception,” World Politics , 454-479, Poli 302 Coursepack. Class Activity: Decision-Maker Profiles 13. Crisis Decision-Making and War – Oct 30 Video : Poli 302 Lecture: Crisis Decision-Making and War Class Activity: Attenuating Crisis Decision-Making 14. Organizations and War – Oct 30 Video : Poli 302 Lecture: Group Decision-Making and War Class Activity: Classifying Crises 15. Crises and War – Nov 6 Video : Poli 302 Lecture: Crises and War Mitchell and Vasquez, 160-167, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). 6

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Senese and Vasquez, “Assessing the Steps to War,” 133-159, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Mitchell and Vasquez, 270-275, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Reed, “A Unified Statistical Model of Conflict Onset and Escalation,” 259-269, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). David Reiley, “Chapter 15: Brinkmanship: the Cuban Missile Crisis,” in Avinash Dixit, Susan Skeath, and David Reiley, Games of Strategy – 3 rd Edition (New York: W.W. Norton, 2009), 585-609, Poli 302 Coursepack. 16. Weapons and War – Nov 6 Video : Poli 302 Lecture: Weapons and War Jack Levy, “The Offensive/Defensive Balance of Military Technology: A Theoretical and Historical Analysis,” International Studies Quarterly 28 (1984), 219-238, Poli 302 Coursepack. Mitchell and Vasquez, 126-131, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Susan Sample, “The Outcomes of Military Buildups,” 105-125, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Class Activity: Do weapons cause war? Part III . Domestic Level of Analysis 17. Regimes and War – Nov 13 Video : Poli 302 Lecture: Regime Types and War Mitchell and Vasquez, 223-230, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Oneal and Russett, “The Kantian Peace,” 195-222, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Mitchell and Vasquez, 366-371, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). De Mesquita and Siverson, “War and the Survival of Political Leaders,” 345-365, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Mitchell and Vasquez, 297-302, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Gibler, “Bordering on Peace,” 277-296, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Class Activity: Will China be more likely to go to war now or when it becomes democratic? 18. Diversionary Theory of War – Nov 13 Video : Poli 302 Lecture: Diversionary War 7

Jack Levy, “The Diversionary Theory of War: A Critique,” in Manus I. Midlarsky (ed.), Handbook of War Studies (Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press 1989), Poli 302 Reader. Mitchell and Vasquez, 188-194, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Mitchell and Prins, “Rivalry and Diversionary Use of Force,” 169-187, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Class Activity: What caused the Falklands War? 19. Second Mid-Term Exam – Nov 20 20. Revolution and War – Nov 20 Video : Poli 302 Lecture: Revolution and War Stephen Walt, Revolution and War (Ithaca: Cornell UP, 1996), 210-268, Poli 302 Coursepack. 21. Trade and War – Nov 27 Video : Poli 302 Lecture: Trade and War Mitchell and Vasquez, 251-257, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Barbieri, “Economic Interdependence,” 231-250, Conflict, Peace and War Text (Kindle). Class Activity: Will China and the US go to war? 22. Development and War – Nov 27 Video : Poli 302 Lecture: Development and War Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire – Domestic Politics and International Ambition , (Ithaca: Cornell UP, 1991), 112-152, Poli 302 Coursepack. 23. Environment and War – Dec 4 Video : Poli 302 Lecture: Environment and War Thomas Homer Dixon, “Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases,” International Security 19, no.1 (Spring 1994), 5-40, Poli 302 Coursepack. 24. Human Nature and War – Dec 4 Video : Poli 302 Lecture: Human Nature and War 8

Edmund Beard, “Warfare Among Eskimos”, in Cordier (ed.), Columbia Essays in International Affairs (1969), 28-50, Poli 302 Coursepack. Administrative Issues: Current university policy is that there is no professorial discretion with regard to incomplete assignments – assignments not received before a reasonable time before the required date of grade submission must proceed through regular grade change channels. Late assignments will not receive comments. I cannot replace one poorly done assignment with another assignment arrived through a private arrangement with a student – I am required by the university to apply the syllabus. Significant changes to the syllabus require unanimous consent of students and professor. Please do not bombard the professor with twitter-like emails. You must keep all course materials until after the end of class. For letters of recommendation, drop the required pre-filled forms (including my name, title, etc), stamped and addressed envelopes (including return address), your transcript, letter of intent, and instructions. I will not do online recommendations unless they don’t require an institutional email. You will receive a much better letter of recommendation if I know who you are. I will only mail out letters of recommendation, and not hand them back to students, nor will I produce letters for non-specific purposes. Comportment Issues : Of vital importance is good behavior in the classroom. For example, students must never insult another person in a classroom. Please see the Code of Rights and Responsibilities. Students not respecting these rules will be asked to leave. Students may not use superstitious or religious deities as causes of events. Changes of the Syllabus : I reserve the right to amend the schedule of meetings and assignments listed in this syllabus as might become necessary based on events throughout the semester. Any changes to the syllabus will be announced and students will receive an amended syllabus in writing. Copies of the most up to date syllabus can be found on the course website on Moodle. This is officially an In-Person class ( NOT a Remote teaching class). Third-Party Software: Students must consent to the use of third-party software that collects their information. Poli 302 will make use of SPSS, and Vassal, neither of which collects student information. Intellectual property Content belonging to instructors shared in online courses, including, but not limited to, online lectures, course notes, and video recordings of classes remain the intellectual property of the faculty member. It may not be distributed, published or broadcast, in whole or in part, without the express permission of the faculty member. Students are also forbidden to use their own means of recording any elements of an online class or lecture without express permission of the 9

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instructor. Any unauthorized sharing of course content may constitute a breach of the Academic Code of Conduct and/or the Code of Rights and Responsibilities. As specified in the Policy on Intellectual Property, the University does not claim any ownership of or interest in any student IP. All university members retain copyright over their work Addendum 1 – Auto-proctored timed assessments To be added to any syllabus where online proctoring has been approved and will be used: This course will be taught and all assessments will be completely online. A midterm and/or a final online exam will be provided through the Concordia Online Exams (COLE) platform with online proctoring (also known as auto- proctoring). More information about the COLE system may be found at the COLE website . Please note the following with respect to online live proctored exams: ● That the exam will take place during the exam period at the designated date and time set by the professor (midterm) or the Exams office (final). All exam times will be set to Eastern Standard/Daylight Time. ● That your image, voice and screen activity will be recorded throughout the duration of the exam. ● That you must show your Concordia University Identification card to validate your identity. Alternative government-issued photo identification will be accepted, though it is not recommended. Only identification in English or French will be accepted. ● That any recording made will only be viewed by authorized university personnel (no external entity has authorization to review the recording). ● That you will be responsible for ensuring appropriate, properly functioning technology (webcam, a microphone, appropriate browser and an ability to download any necessary software, as well as a reliable internet connection with a minimum of a 3G connection). ● That you are very strongly recommended to enter the virtual test site found at the COLE website and become familiar with the software that will be used for your exam before starting the exam. ● That you will need a quiet place within which to take the exam. Earplugs or noise-cancelling headphones that are not connected to a device may also be used to allow you to focus for the duration of the exam. Students who are unable to write an exam because they are unable to meet the above conditions and requirements are advised that they will need to drop the course . More information can be provided on the next or alternative offering of this course by consulting the Department. Students are advised that the drop deadline (DNE) for this course is September 21, 2020. 10

Students who require additional accommodations for their exams due to a documented disability should contact the Access Centre for Students with Disabilities as soon as possible ( acsdinfo@concordia.ca ). If you face issues during the exam, you should inform your professor of those issues immediately. Please note that there are in-exam supports you should spend time getting to know. Visit the COLE website for more information. Ouriginal Ouriginal an automated text-matching software used to prevent and detect plagiarism. Documents are uploaded using a Moodle plugin and compared to a range of sources, including previously submitted material, to verify text originality. The platform generates an analysis report that includes the number of text matches, identifies where these were found in the document, and provides an overall similarity percentage. The Centre for Teaching and Learning has launched an Ouriginal pilot project with a number of faculty across the university. A primary goal of the pilot is to position Ouriginal as a teaching and learning resource, supported with Best Practice Guides for faculty and students, instructional resources, and learning activities. Intellectual Property Rights : Content belonging to instructors shared in online courses, including, but not limited to, online lectures, course notes, and video recordings of classes remain the intellectual property of the faculty member. It may not be distributed, published or broadcast, in whole or in part, without the express permission of the faculty member. Students are also forbidden to use their own means of recording any elements of an online class or lecture without express permission of the instructor. Any unauthorized sharing of course content may constitute a breach of the Academic Code of Conduct and/or the Code of Rights and Responsibilities. As specified in the Policy on Intellectual Property, the University does not claim any ownership of or interest in any student IP. All university members retain copyright over their work. Plagiarism Department of Political Science Statement on Plagiarism The Department of Political Science has zero tolerance for plagiarism. 1. What is plagiarism? The University defines plagiarism as “the presentation of the work of another person, in whatever form, as one’s own or without proper acknowledgement” (Concordia Academic Code of Conduct, Article 19a, https://www.concordia.ca/content/dam/concordia/offices/provost/docs/Academic-Code- Conduct-2015.pdf ). Plagiarism is an academic offence governed by the Code of Conduct (Academic). To find out more about how to avoid plagiarism, see the Concordia University Student Success Centre at: https://www.concordia.ca/students/success.html 11

2. What are the consequences of being caught? Students caught plagiarizing are subject to the following sanctions: (a) a written reprimand; (b) a piece of work be re-submitted; (c) an examination be taken anew; (d) a grade reduction or grade of zero for the piece of work in question; (e) a grade reduction or failing grade for the course; (f) a failing grade and ineligibility for a supplemental examination or any other evaluative exercise for the course; (g) the obligation to take and pass courses of up to twenty-four (24) credits in addition to the total number of credits required for the student’s program; (h) suspension for a period not to exceed six (6) academic terms. Suspensions shall entail the withdrawal of all University privileges, including the right to enter and be on University premises; (i) expulsion from the University. Expulsion entails the permanent termination of all University privileges. In the case of a student who has already graduated, the only two available sanctions are (i) a notation on the student’s academic record that he or she has been found guilty of academic misconduct; or (ii) a recommendation to Senate for the revocation of the degree obtained. (Academic Code of Conduct, Articles 21-25) Complete regulations can be found in the Academic Code of Conduct . Changes of the Syllabus The instructor reserves the right to amend the schedule of meetings and assignments listed in this syllabus as might become necessary based on events throughout the semester. Any changes to the syllabus will be announced and students will receive an amended syllabus in writing. Copies of the most up to date syllabus can be found on the course website on Moodle. ML and AI use is prohibited for use in submitted class material:  The use in this course of generative artificial intelligence tools or apps for assignments, including tools like ChatGPT and other AI writing or coding assistants, is prohibited.  The knowing use of generative artificial intelligence tools, including ChatGPT and other AI writing and coding assistants, for the completion of, or to support the completion of, an examination, assignment, or any other form of academic assessment, is considered an academic offense.  Representing as one’s own an idea, or expression of an idea, that was AI- generated is considered an academic offense.  Students may not copy or paraphrase from any generative AI applications, including ChatGPT and other AI writing and coding assistants, for the purpose of completing assignments in this course.  The use of generative artificial intelligence tools and apps is strictly prohibited in all course assignments unless explicitly stated otherwise by the instructor in this course. This includes ChatGPT and other AI writing and coding assistants.  This course policy is designed to promote your learning and intellectual development and to help you reach course learning outcomes. Here is another Concordia-specific variant: Prohibited uses of ChatGPT or other AI tools will be deemed misconduct under Concordia’s Academic Code of Conduct . Students will be charged under Articles 18 (general cheating/plagiarism/dishonest behavior) and 19a (plagiarism) of the Code. Prohibited use can lead to serious consequences such as a zero for the work, failing grade for the course, or expulsion from the university. See 12

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https://www.concordia.ca/content/dam/common/docs/policies/official- policies/Academic-Code-Conduct-2015.pdf 13

302 Syllabus Fall 2023

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