Exercise 8 Inductive Arguments (1)
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Exercise 8. March 27, 2022
Please complete the following questions in chapter 8 of the textbook.
Exercise 8.1:
For each of the following enumerative inductions, 1) identify the target group,
sample and relevant property; 2) indicate whether the argument is strong or weak; and 3) if it’s
weak, say whether the problem is a sample that’s too small, not representative, or both.
Assume the information provided in the premises of each argument is true
2. Most people agree that injecting hormones into livestock to make them bigger is a bad
idea. A national newspaper recently went to PETA Canada’s office and interviewed many of its
members. They all stated that injecting hormones into livestock is painful for the animal and
potentially a health hazard for the people that consume them.
Induction is weak
1)
target group – people, members in Canada
2)
sample – members of peta
5. Two thirds of the adults in Toronto say they are in favour of permitting gay marriage. And
almost 70% of Montrealers are, too. This makes it perfectly clear that a large majority of
people in this country are in favour of gay marriage.
Argument is strong
1.
targert group -
Adults in Toronto and Montreal
2.
Sample: Two-thirds of adults in Toronto and almost 70% of Montrealers.
3.
Relevant Property: Support for permitting gay marriage.
10. Clearly there is an epidemic of child abductions in this country. In the past year, major
network news organizations have reported five cases of children who were abducted by
strangers
Argument is weak
1.
Target Group: Children in the country.
2.
Sample: Five cases of children reported by major network news organizations.
3.
Relevant Property: Being abducted by strangers.
Exercise 8.3:
For each of the following opinion polls, 1) determine whether the poll results offer
strong support for the pollster’s conclusion and if they dont, 2) specify the source of the problem
(sample too small, unrepresentative sample, or non-random sampling). Assume the conducting
of each survey is free of technical errors, such as mistakes in data processing or improper polling
interviews.
3. The local police department wants to find out how prevalent bullying is within the schools
in their district. They distributed questionnaires to all of the students at the schools that
asked them how often they were bullied or saw other students being bullied. About half of
the questionnaires were returned to the police department, and most of them indicated that
little to no bullying occurred at any of the school. Using this information, the police
department concluded that bullying is not a big problem in the community.
Support for the Conclusion:
The poll results do not offer strong support for the police department's conclusion
Source of the Problem:
The main issue is likely related to the non-random sampling and potential bias.
Exercise 8.4:
For each of the following arguments, state which conclusions from the
accompanying list would be strongly supported by the premise given. Assume that all premises
are true.
4.
Approximately 66% of the 124 university students who responded to a questionnaire
published in the campus newspaper are opposed to the federal government’s vocal
support for the Alberta oil sands.
A significant portion of the university students who responded to the questionnaire opposes
the federal government's vocal support for the Alberta oil sands.
Exercise 8.7:
Determine the most likely source of weakness for the following statistical
syllogisms. (State whether the most likely problem is unacceptable premise, statistical weakness,
or non-typical individual. Give a few words of explanations for why you think the argument is
weak in that particular way.
4.
Most new businesses go out of business within the first two years. So I’m sure Barack
Obama’s plan to go into the consulting business after he’s done being president is
going to fail.
Statistical weakness
Exercise 8.9:
Evaluate each of the following arguments by analogy, indicating 1) the things
being compared, 2) the relevant similarities mentioned or implied, 3) whether diversity among
multiple cases is a significant factor, 4) the conclusion, and 5) whether the argument is strong or
weak.
3. If a single cell, under appropriate conditions becomes a person in the space of a few years,
there can surely be no difficulty in understanding how, under appropriate conditions, a cell
may, in the course of untold millions of years, give origin to the human race.
Argument is weak
1) things being compared - A single cell becoming a person in a few years
2) Relevant Similarities Mentioned or Implied:
s
imilarity between the development of an
individual from a single cell to a person in a short time frame and the idea that a cell,
3) The conclusion is that there should be no difficulty in understanding how, under appropriate
conditions, a cell may give origin to the human race over millions of years.
5.
Several new, modern manufacturing plants in the Toronto area have brought jobs to
that area as well as improving the city’s tax base, without causing significant amounts
of pollution or noise or disrupting traffic. The same can be said for two new plants that
have opened up on the outskirts of Montreal, as well as plants in Edmonton and
Calgary. A plant built in Halifax will provide all the same benefits, also without
disadvantages.
Argument is weak
1.
Things compared - Manufacturing plants in the Toronto area, two new plants on the
outskirts of Montreal, plants in Edmonton and Calgary, and a plant built in Halifax.
2.
Similarties - that several new manufacturing plants in different Canadian cities have
brought jobs
3.
Conculsion - the conclusion is that a plant built in Halifax will provide the same benefits
as other plants without disadvantages.
Exercise 8.10:
Analyze each of the following causal arguments. Identify the conclusion and say
whether the argument appeals to the Method of Agreement, the Method of Difference, the Joint
Method of Agreement and Difference, or correlation. In some cases the conclusion may be
implied but not stated. State whether the argument is strong or weak.
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1.
Four people in this class failed the mid-term exam. The only common factors are that
they have poor attendance records and they all ignored the instructions on Question
10.
1.
Conclusion - Poor attendance records and ignoring instructions on Question 10 are
causing students to fail the mid-term exam.
2.
Method use - joint Method of Agreement and Difference.
3.
Strong argument
6.
In instance 1, when factors X, Y, and Z were present, E happened. In Instance 2 when
factors X, Y, and P were present, E happened. In instance 3, when factors X and Z were
present, E did not happen. In Instance 4, when Z and P were present, E did not
happen. And in Instance 5, when X, Z and P were present, E did not happen. Therefore,
Y Caused E.
1.
strong argument
2.
Joint Method of Agreement and Difference.
3.
Conclusion – Y causes E
9.
Johnny owns a successful mid-sized telemarketing company. Three months ago, one of his
best sales managers, Jeff, left to work elsewhere and Johnny hired Fred to replace him. Last
week, while analyzing his employees’ performance reports, he noticed many unfamiliar
names. After a little digging, he discovered that the employee turnover rate at the store had
increased substantially since Jeff left. Moreover, Fred had managed the vast majority of the
employees that the store had lost. Therefore, Johnny concludes that Fred is an incompetent
sales manager.
1. weak argument
2. Method of Agreement.
3. Conclusion - Johnny concludes that Fred is an incompetent sales manager.