Village Valuation (DCF & LBO) v2 - 7 years (1)

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Oct 30, 2023

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Period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 ANNUAL DATA Q Historical Forecast Historical 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E H1 2020A H2 2020E 2021E 2022E FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 x Assumptions Base Case Live Case 1 Capacity Theme Parks 100% 100% 100% 100% - - 50% 50% 50% 100% 100% 100% Cinemas 100% 100% 100% 100% - 50% 50% 50% 50% 100% 100% 100% YoY CAGR Revenue Growth (% Change) (4.0%) (4.5%) 2.9% (Normalized) Theme Parks - 0.8% 9.6% 1.2% 0.3% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Cinemas - (4.2%) (1.8%) (4.0%) (1.0%) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Film Distribution - (15.1%) (5.2%) - - - - - - - - - - Other - 213.5% 66.4% - - - - - - - - - - Downside Case Capacity Theme Parks 100% 100% 100% 100% - - - 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% Cinemas 100% 100% 100% 100% - 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% YoY CAGR Revenue Growth (% Change) (4.0%) (4.5%) 2.9% (Normalized) Theme Parks - 0.8% 9.6% 1.2% 0.3% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Cinemas - (4.2%) (1.8%) (4.0%) (1.0%) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Film Distribution - (15.1%) (5.2%) - - - - - - - - - - Other - 213.5% 66.4% - - - - - - - - - - Upside Case Capacity Theme Parks 100% 100% 100% 100% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 100% 100% 100% Cinemas 100% 100% 100% 100% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 100% 100% 100% YoY CAGR Revenue Growth (% Change) (4.0%) (4.5%) 2.9% (Normalized) Theme Parks - 0.8% 9.6% 1.2% 0.3% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Cinemas - (4.2%) (1.8%) (4.0%) (1.0%) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Film Distribution - (15.1%) (5.2%) - - - - - - - - - - Other - 213.5% 66.4% - - - - - - - - - - Live Case Capacity Theme Parks 100% 100% 100% 100.0% - - 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Cinemas 100% 100% 100% 100.0% - 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Revenue Growth (% Change) (4.0%) (4.5%) 2.9% Theme Parks - 0.8% 9.6% 0.3% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Cinemas - (4.2%) (1.8%) (1.0%) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Film Distribution - (15.1%) (5.2%) - - - - - - - - - Other - 213.5% 66.4% - - - - - - - - - Employee expenses breakdown (% of Total) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Theme Parks 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% - - 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Cinemas 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% - 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Film Distribution 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Other 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% x Income Statement Revenue 998 953 981 826 ### 994 ### ### ### 1,141 1,171 249 249 248 81 119 ### ### ### ### ### ### Theme Parks 303 305 335 275 137 369 374 378 383 92 92 92 - #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Cinemas 326 313 307 226 #NAME? 300 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 76 76 75 - #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 75 #NAME? 75 Film Distribution 359 305 289 230 230 230 230 230 230 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 Other 10 30 50 95 95 95 95 95 95 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 COGS (121) (126) (113) (102) ### (122) ### ### ### % of Revenue (12%) (13%) (11%) (12%) (12%) (12%) (12%) (12%) (12%) Gross Profit 877 827 868 725 ### 872 ### ### ### % of Revenue 88% 87% 89% 88% #NAME? 88% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? SG&A (741) (736) (743) (679) ### (732) ### ### ### % of Revenue (74%) (77%) (76%) (82%) #NAME? (74%) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Employee expenses (246) (253) (244) (210) (164) (247) (247) (247) (247) (62) (62) (62) (25) (34) (43) (43) (43) (62) (62) (62) Theme Parks - - - (56) (28) (74) (74) (74) (74) (19) (19) (19) - - (9) (9) (9) (19) (19) (19) Cinemas - - - (56) (37) (74) (74) (74) (74) (19) (19) (19) - (9) (9) (9) (9) (19) (19) (19) Film Distribution - - - (74) (74) (74) (74) (74) (74) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) Other - - - (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) (25) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) Occupancy expenses (75) (83) (81) (81) (81) (81) (81) (81) (81) Advertising & Promotions (116) (98) (91) (76) #NAME? (92) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Other expenses (304) (302) (328) (311) (311) (311) (311) (311) (311) EBITDA 136 91 125 46 ### 140 ### ### ### 146 150 % of Revenue 14% 10% 13% 6% #NAME? 14% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? x Working Capital Current Assets Receivables 129 109 #NAME? 131 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 150 154 Inventory 23 21 #NAME? 23 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 27 27 Royalties 37 31 #NAME? 37 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 43 44 Total 189 161 ### 191 ### ### ### 220 226 Current Liabilities Payables 228 208 #NAME? 227 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 265 272 Total 228 208 ### 227 ### ### ### 265 272 Net Working Capital (39) (47) ### (36) ### ### ### (45) (46) (Increase) / Decrease in NWC 8 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1 Ratios & Assumptions: Days Sales Outstanding 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 Days Inventory Held 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Days Payable Outstanding 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 Royalties (% of Revenue) 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% x Depreciation Capex 80 85 48 40 #NAME? 49 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? D&A 73 71 70 56 #NAME? 60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Ratios & Assumptions: Capex (% of Revenue) 8% 9% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% D&A (% of Capex) 91% 84% 146% ### 130% 123% 115% 108% 100% x DCF Analysis x Free Cash Flow EBITDA 46 #NAME? 140 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? (-) D&A (56) #NAME? (60) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? (=) EBIT (10) #NAME? 81 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? (-) Tax - #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? (=) NOPAT (10) ### ### ### ### ### (+) D&A 56 #NAME? 60 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? (+/-) Change in NWC 8 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? (-) Capex (40) #NAME? (49) #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? (=) Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCFF) 13 ### ### ### ### ### x Cost of Capital Risk-Free Rate 1.5% Beta 1.0 Equity Mkt Risk Premium 7.5% Cost of Equity 9.0% Risk-Free Rate 1.5% Debt Risk Premium 2.0% Cost of Debt (pre-tax) 3.5% Tax Rate 30% Cost of Debt (after tax) 2.5% Share Price (as of 23-Mar-2020) 0.99 n. of Shares Outstanding 195 Equity Market Cap 193 Debt Outstanding 271 Total Capitalisation 464 Equity weight % 42% Debt weight % 58%
WACC 5.2% WACC (hardcoded for sensitivity) 5.2% x Discounted Cash Flows FCFF 13 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? Period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 Discount factor 0.97 0.93 0.88 0.84 0.80 0.76 Present Value 13 ### ### ### ### ### x Terminal Value a) Perpetuity growth Terminal Growth Rate (g) 0.70% Terminal Value 1,578 Present Value 1,194 Enterprise Value 1,326 (-) Debt (271) (+) Cash 73 (-) Minorities (5) (+) Associates 32 (=) Equity Value 1,155 n. of shares outstanding 195 Equity Value per Share $ 5.92 b) Exit Multiple EBITDA multiple @exit 8.0x Terminal Value 1,206 Present Value 913 Enterprise Value 1,045 (-) Debt (271) (+) Cash 73 (-) Minorities (5) (+) Associates 32 (=) Equity Value 874 n. of shares outstanding 195 Equity Value per Share $ 4.48 x Sensitivity Analysis Weighted Average Cost of Capital Step x Perpetuity Growth $ 5.92 4.8% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 0.2% 0.20% 0.45% 0.70% 0.95% 1.20% Step 0.25% Weighted Average Cost of Capital Step x Exit multiple $ 4.48 4.8% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 0.2% 7.0x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 9.0x Step 0.5x x Theme Parks YoY CAGR Step $ 5.92 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.20% 0.45% 0.70% 0.95% 1.20% Step 0.25% YoY CAGR Step $ 4.48 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 0.2% 7.0x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 9.0x Step 0.5x x Cinemas YoY CAGR $ 5.92 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.20% 0.45% 0.70% 0.95% 1.20% Step 0.25% YoY CAGR Step $ 4.48 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 7.0x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 9.0x Step 0.5x x Film distribution YoY CAGR $ 5.92 (0.4%) (0.2%) 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.20% 0.45% 0.70% 0.95% 1.20% Step 0.25% YoY CAGR Step $ 4.48 (0.4%) (0.2%) 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 7.0x 7.5x 8.0x 8.5x 9.0x Step 0.5x Terminal Growth Rate Exit multiple Terminal Growth Rate Exit multiple Terminal Growth Rate Exit multiple Terminal Growth Rate Exit multiple
QUARTERLY DATA Forecast 2023E 2024E 2025E Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Base Case 1 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Downside Case 2 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Upside Case 3 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% ### 249 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### 252 #NAME? 93 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 96 #NAME? 75 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 75 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 (62) (62) (62) (62) (62) (62) (62) (62) (62) (62) (62) (62) (62) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (19) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6) (6)
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Period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 Historical Results 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 Consolidated DCF Model 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Balance Sheet Check OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Live Case 1 1 Share Price $0.00 Assumptions - Inputs Base Case Capacity Theme Parks 75.00% 37.5% 100.0% 225.0% Cinemas 75.00% 50.0% 100.0% Revenue Growth (% Change) 981 -20.8% -36.3% 80.6% 10.7% 10.7% 2.7% Theme Parks 34% 334 -25% -50% 167% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% Cinemas 31% 304 -25% -33% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 1% Film Distribution 29% 284 -13% -26% 50% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Other 5% 50 9.00 2.25 Employee expenses 243.52 -17.5% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Theme Parks 90.10 -25.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Cinemas 80.36 -25.0% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Film Distribution 73.06 0% 0% 3% 3% 3% 3% Downside Case Capacity Theme Parks 75.00% 25.0% 100.0% Cinemas 75.00% 50.0% 100.0% Revenue Growth (% Change) 972 -21% -42% 125% Theme Parks 334 -25% -67% 300% Cinemas 304 -25% -33% 25% 25% 25% 1% Film Distribution 284 -13% -26% 50% 9% 9% 9% Other 50 Employee expenses 244.0 -17.5% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Theme Parks 73.0 -7.4% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Cinemas 48.8 23.5% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 61484: Our Fixed Case scenario across all cases is that we assume that cinema exhibition will regress to pre-covid levels by 2024 and will then grow at 1% We will examine the differences in industry growth rate through a sensitivity analysis Reasons for this assumption include: More consumers preferring on-demand movie experience, with producers shifting to release more new movies to on-demand platforms as a result of covid but also as a natural evolution of the 61484: Historically grown by 3% After covid buffer period assumption of 3% annual growth
Upside Case Capacity Theme Parks 75.00% 75.0% 100.0% Cinemas 75.00% 75.0% 100.0% Revenue Growth (% Change) 981 -22% -9% 36% Theme Parks 335 -25% 0% 33% Cinemas 307 -26% 0% 25% 25% 25% 1% Film Distribution 289 -14% -26% 50% 9% 9% 9% Other 50 Employee expenses Theme Parks Cinemas Live Case Capacity Theme Parks 75.00% 50.0% 100.0% Cinemas 75.00% 50.0% 100.0% Revenue Growth (% Change) 981 -22% -36% 81% 11% 11% 3% Theme Parks 42% of Revenue 335 -25% -50% 167% 4.00% 4.00% 4.00% Cinemas 34% of Revenue 307 -26% -33% 25% 25% 25% 1% Film Distribution 26% of Revenue 289 -14% -26% 50% 3% 3% 3% Other 50 Employee expenses 243.52 -17.5% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Theme Parks 73.06 -7.5% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Cinemas 48.70 23.8% 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Film Distribution 73.06 - - 3% 3% 3% 3% Income Statement Revenue 1,040 998 953 981 769 489 884 978 1,082 1,111 Theme Parks - 303 305 335 250 125 334 347 361 375 Cinemas - 326 313 307 228 152 190 238 297 300 cinema industry. Covid has also severely impacted the production of new titles.
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Film Distribution - 359 305 289 249 185 277 286 294 303 Other - 10 30 50 42 27 83 108 130 133 COGS (121) (126) (113) - 101.98 - 63.62 - 117.20 - 127.12 - 143.53 - 144.43 % of Revenue 12.1% 13.3% 11.5% 13.3% 13.0% 13.3% 13.0% 13.3% 13.0% Gross Profit 877 827 868 667 426 766 851 939 967 % of Revenue 88% 87% 89% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% 87% SG&A (741) (736) (743) (647) (650) (668) (725) (803) (824) % of Revenue (74%) (77%) (76%) (84%) (133%) (76%) (74%) (74%) (74%) themeparks - 245.28 - 239.37 - 264.94 - 272.02 cinema - 237.85 - 232.12 - 256.91 - 263.77 Film Distribution - 267.58 - 261.14 - 289.03 - 296.75 Employee expenses (246) (253) (244) - 200.90 - 200.90 - 206.93 - 213.14 - 219.53 - 226.12 % of SG&A 33% 34% 33% 31% 31% 31% 29% 27% 27% Theme Parks - - 73 67.58 67.58 69.60 71.69 73.84 76.06 Cinemas - 49 60.27 60.27 62.08 63.94 65.86 67.84 Film Distribution 73 73.06 73.06 75.25 77.50 79.83 82.22 Other - - - Occupancy expenses (75) (83) (81) (84) (85) (87) (89) (90) (92) % of SG&A 10% 11% 11% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% Advertising & Promotions (116) (98) (91) Other expenses (304) (302) (328) Total Expenses -792.8 (663) (663) Themepark 33% -258 (254) 38% (254) Cinema 32% -253 (219) 33% (219) Film Dist 36% -281.8 (190) 29% (190) EBITDA 136 91 125 20 (225) 98 125 136 142 % of Revenue 13.6% 9.5% 12.7% 2.6% (45.9%) 11.1% 12.8% 12.5% 12.8% Themepark EBITDA 55.0% 61.2% 76.50 36 117% 75% Cinema EBITDA 38.8% 43.2% 53.90 8.50 27.3% 17% Film Distribution EBITDA 6.2% 6.9% 8.60 3.80 12.2% 8% 111.3% 139.00 48.60 156% total 124.90 31.10 Working Capital Current Assets
Receivables 119 129 44 33 16 44 46 47 Inventory 23 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 Royalties 47 37 41 30 15 40 42 44 Total 189 189 85 63 32 84 88 91 Current Liabilities Payables 202 228 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 228 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Working Capital (13) (39) 84 63 31 84 88 91 (Increase) / Decrease in NWC (26) (123) 21 32 (53) (3) (4) Ratios & Assumptions: Days Sales Outstanding 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 Days Inventory Held 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Days Payable Outstanding 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 Royalties (% of Revenue) 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% Depreciation Schedule Capex 80 85 48 48 38 24 43 48 53 D&A 73 71 70 66 49 29 50 51 53 Ratios & Assumptions: Capex (% of Revenue) 8% 9% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% D&A (% of Capex) 91% 84% 146% 138% 130% 123% 115% 108% 100% Discounted Cash Flows Free Cash Flow EBITDA 20 (225) 98 125 136 142 (-) D&A (66) (49) (29) (50) (51) (53) (=) EBIT (46) (274) 69 76 84 89 (-) Tax - - (21) (23) (25) (27) (=) NOPAT (46) (274) 90 98 110 116 (+) D&A 66 49 29 50 51 53 (+/-) Change in NWC (123) 21 32 (53) (3) (4) (-) Capex 48 38 24 43 48 53 (=) Unlevered Free Cash Flow (FCFF) (55) (166) 175 138 205 218
Cost of Capital Risk-Free Rate 1.5% Beta 1.0 Equity Mkt Ri 7.5% Cost of Equit 9.0% Risk-Free Rate 1.5% Debt Risk Pre 2.0% Cost of Debt ( 3.5% Tax Rate 30% Cost of Debt 2.5% Share Price (a $ 0.99 n. of Shares O 195,200,000 Equity Market ### Debt Outstand 271000000 Total Capitalis ### Equity weigh 42% Debt weight 58% WACC 5.2% WACC (hardc 5.2% Discounted Cash Flows FCFF (55) (166) 175 138 205 218 Period 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 Discount factor 1.90 0.63 0.38 0.27 0.21 0.17 Present Value (105) (105) 66 38 43 38 Terminal Value a) Perpetuity growth Terminal Growth R 3.00% Terminal Value 10,229 Present Value 7,740
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Enterprise Value 774,000,871 (-) Debt (271,000,000) (+) Cash 73,000,000 (-) Minorities (5,000,000) (+) Associates 32*1000000 (=) Equity Value 571,000,871 n. of shares outst 195,200,000 Equity Value per $ 2.93 b) Exit Multiple EBITDA multip 5.0x Terminal Value 711 Present Valu 538 Enterprise Value 538,188,724 (-) Debt (271,000,000) (+) Cash 73,000,000 (-) Minorities (5,000,000) (+) Associates 32*1000000 (=) Equity Value 335,188,724 n. of shares outst 195,200,000 Equity Value per $ 1.72 Step 0.25% YoY CAGR Step $ 1.72 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 2.0% Exit multiple 4.0x 4.5x 5.0x 5.5x 6.0x Step 0.5x
Cinemas YoY CAGR $ 0.09 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.20% -36.09 -36.09 -36.09 -36.08 -36.08 0.20% -37.77 -37.77 -37.77 -37.77 -37.77 0.20% -39.64 -39.64 -39.64 -39.64 -39.64 0.20% -41.74 -41.74 -41.73 -41.73 -41.73 0.20% -44.09 -44.09 -44.09 -44.09 -44.09 Step 0.25% YoY CAGR Step $ 0.58 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Exit multiple 7.0x -16.25 -16.25 -16.24 -16.24 -16.24 7.0x -17.01 -17.01 -17.01 -17.00 -17.00 7.0x -17.77 -17.77 -17.77 -17.77 -17.76 7.0x -18.53 -18.53 -18.53 -18.53 -18.53 7.0x -19.29 -19.29 -19.29 -19.29 -19.29 Step 0.5x Film distribution YoY CAGR $ 0.09 (0.4%) (0.4%) (0.4%) (0.4%) (0.4%) 0.2% 0.20% -36.10 -36.10 -36.10 -36.10 -36.10 0.20% -37.78 -37.78 -37.78 -37.78 -37.78 0.20% -39.66 -39.66 -39.65 -39.65 -39.65 0.20% -41.75 -41.75 -41.75 -41.75 -41.75 0.20% -44.10 -44.10 -44.10 -44.10 -44.10 Step 0.25% Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Growth Rate
YoY CAGR Step $ 0.58 (0.4%) (0.4%) (0.4%) (0.4%) (0.4%) 0.2% Exit multiple 7.0x -16.26 -16.26 -16.26 -16.26 -16.26 7.0x -17.02 -17.02 -17.02 -17.02 -17.02 7.0x -17.78 -17.78 -17.78 -17.78 -17.78 7.0x -18.54 -18.54 -18.54 -18.54 -18.54 7.0x -19.30 -19.30 -19.30 -19.30 -19.30 Step 0.5x Sensitivity Analysis Share Price Senstivity Revenue Growth - 0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 6.0x 7.0x Exit Multiple 8.0x 9.0x 10.0x Revenue COGS Discount Rate EV/EBITDA Change $/Share Change $/Share Change Change $/Share 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 -10.0% -10.0% -10.0% -10.0% +10.0% +10.0% +10.0% +10.0% Assumption -10% Δ +10% Δ Rank ABS Output Pos Neg Revenue #VALUE! #VALUE! 1 #VALUE! #VALUE! #N/A #N/A COGS #VALUE! #VALUE! 2 #VALUE! #VALUE! #N/A #N/A Discount Rate #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 3 #DIV/0! #VALUE! #N/A #N/A EV/EBITDA #VALUE! #VALUE! 4 #VALUE! #VALUE! #N/A #N/A
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Impact on Share Price By Change in Assumption 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 1200%
H1 2020A H2 2020E 2021E 2022E Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 jul-sept oct-dec jan-mar april-jun jul-sept oct-dec jan-mar april-jun jul-sept oct-dec jan-mar 100% 100% 100% - 75% - 50% 50% 50% 38% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% - 75% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 100% 100% 100% 125 83 83 83 - 250.16 - 42 42 42 125 83 83 83 76 76 76 - 228.08 38 38 38 38 152 71 71 71 36 249 46 46 46 46 185 69 69 69 -13% -26% 61 61 61 18 201 18 61 61 61 201 23 23 23 - 68 - 23 23 23 68 20 20 20 - 60 - 20 20 20 60 100% 100% 100% 0% 75% 0% 0% 50% 50% 25% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0% 75% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 100% 100% 100% 83 83 83 - 250.16 - 0 41.6925 41.6925 83 83 83 83 76 76 76 - 228.08 38 38 38 38 152 71 71 71 36 249 46 46 46 46 185 69 69 69 61 61 61 18 201 18 61 61 61 201 23 23 23 - 68 - 23 23 23 68 20 20 20 - 60 - 20 20 20 60
100% 100% 100% - 75% 50% 50% 100% 100% 75% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% - 75% 50% 50% 100% 100% 75% 100% 100% 100% 83 83 83 - 250.16 42 42 83 83 250 83 83 83 76 76 76 - 228.08 38 38 76 76 228 71 71 71 36 249 46 46 46 46 185 69 69 69 100% 100% 100% - 75% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% - 75% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 100% 100% 100% 3% 3% 125 83 83 83 - 250.16 - 42 42 42 125 83 83 83 76 76 76 - 228.08 38 38 38 38 152 71 71 71 36 249 46 46 46 46 185 69 69 69 -14% -26% 61 61 61 18 201 18 61 61 61 201 23 23 23 - 68 - 23 23 23 68 20 20 20 - 60 - 20 20 20 60 1,141 1,171
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146 150 12.8% 12.8%
54 56 54 56 5% 5% 100% 100%
- #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0%
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Q4 Total april-jun 100% 100% 100% 100% 83 334 190 69 277 50% 207 100% 100% 100% 100% 83 334 190 69 277
100% 100% 100% 100% 83 334 285 69 277 100% 100% 100% 100% 83 334 190 69 277 50%
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Illustrative LBO Analysis Completed LBO Model x Transaction Assumptions ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified) 5 Sources & Uses 1 Transaction Assumptions Sources $ % LTM EBITDA Cash On-Hand -- -- Entry Multiple Revolver Draw -- -- Transaction Value Term Loan B 60 9.7% ( - ) Debt Senior Notes 50 8.1% ( + ) Cash Subordinated Notes 20 3.2% Equity Value Management Rollover -- -- Sponsor Equity 488 78.9% Offer Price per Share Total Sources $618 100.0% n. of shares outstanding Purchase Price Uses $ % Purchase Equity $342 55.3% Refinance Existing Debt 271 43.9% Refinancing Expenses -- -- 2 Purchase Accounting Fund Cash Balance -- -- Transaction Expenses 1 0.2% Total Equity Value Financing Fees 4 0.6% ( - ) Total Assets (excl. goodwill) Total Uses $618 100.0% ( + ) Total Liabilities CHECK: 1 PF Goodwill 6 Other Assumptions 7 CHECKS Minimum Cash Balance $25 Balance Sheet: Minimum Debt Increment 10 Sources & Uses Transaction Expenses (% of EV) 1.00% Cash Interest Rate 0.25% Tax Rate 30.00% CIRC On 8 PF Income Statement ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified) Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2019A 2020E 2021A 2022A 2023A Revenue $981 $769 $489 $884 $978 % Growth (21.6%) (36.3%) 80.6% 10.7%
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EBITDA $125 $20 ($225) $98 $125 % Margin 12.7% 2.6% (45.9%) 11.1% 12.8% ( - ) D&A ($70) ($66) ($49) ($29) ($50) EBIT $55 ($46) ($274) $69 $76 % Margin 5.6% (6.0%) (55.9%) 7.8% 7.7% ( - ) Net Interest Expense On -- ($11) ($15) ($16) EBT ($46) ($285) $54 $60 ( - ) Illustrative Tax Expense -- -- ($16) ($18) Net Income ($46) ($285) $37 $42 % Margin (6.0%) (58.2%) 4.2% 4.3% 9 PF Working Capital ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified) Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E Calculated NWC Receivables $129 $109 $81 $131 $131 Inventory $23 $21 $18 $23 $23 Royalties $37 $31 $23 $37 $38 Current Assets $189 $161 $122 $191 $192 Payables $228 $208 $183 $227 $228 Current Liabilities $228 $208 $183 $227 $228 Net Working Capital (NWC) ($39) ($47) ($61) ($36) ($36) (Increase) Decrease in NWC $8 $14 ($25) ($1) 10 PF Balance Sheet ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified) Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2020E PF 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E Assets Cash $53 $53 $25 $25 $25 Receivables 109 109 81 131 131 Inventories 21 21 18 23 23 Royalties 31 31 23 37 38 Other Current Assets 21 21 21 21 21 Total Current Assets $235 $235 $168 $237 $238 PP&E (incl. ROU assets) 923 923 912 906 900 Goodwill 197 238 238 238 238 Equity investments 32 32 32 32 32 Other Noncurrent Assets 85 89 88 88 87
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Total Assets $1,472 $1,517 $1,439 $1,501 $1,495 Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Payables $208 $208 $183 $227 $228 Other Current Liabilities 161 161 161 161 161 Total Current Liabilities $369 $369 $344 $388 $389 Total Debt $271 $130 $361 $342 $294 Other Noncurrent Liabilities 532 532 532 532 532 Total Liabilities $1,172 $1,031 $1,237 $1,263 $1,214 Total Equity $300 $486 $201 $239 $281 Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity $1,472 $1,517 $1,439 $1,501 $1,495 CHECK: 1 1 1 1 1 11 PF Statement of Cash Flows ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified) Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E Cash from Operating Activities Net Income ($46) ($285) $37 $42 ( + ) D&A 66 49 29 50 ( + ) Noncash Interest Expense -- 2 3 3 ( + / - ) Change in NWC 8 14 (25) (1) Cash from Operating Activities $28 ($220) $45 $94 ( - ) CapEx (48) (38) (24) (43) Levered Free Cash Flow ($20) ($257) $21 $51 Beginning Cash Balance $53 $25 $25 ( + ) Levered Free Cash Flow (257) 21 51 ( - ) Minimum Cash Balance (25) (25) (25) Total Cash Available for Debt Repayment ($229) $21 $51 ( - ) Mandatory Amortization ($1) ($1) ($1) ( -/+ ) Optional Prepayment / Revolver drawdown 230 (20) (50) ( + ) Minimum Cash Balance $25 $25 $25 Ending Cash Balance $53 $25 $25 $25 Memo: Average Cash Balance $25 $25 $25 Cash Interest Income 0.250% 0 0 0 12 PF Debt Schedule ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified) Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E
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Ending Debt Balance Revolver -- $230 $210 $160 Term Loan B $60 $59 $59 $58 Senior Notes $50 $50 $50 $50 Subordinated Notes $20 $22 $24 $26 Total $130 $361 $342 $294 % of Original 100.0% 277.6% 263.2% 225.9% Memo: Undrawn Revolver Commitment $300 $300 $70 $90 $140 Cash Available for Debt Repayment ($229) $21 $51 Mandatory Amortization Schedule Revolver -- -- -- Term Loan B 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Senior Notes -- -- -- Subordinated Notes -- -- -- Mandatory Amortization Revolver -- -- -- Term Loan B (1) (1) (1) Senior Notes -- -- -- Subordinated Notes -- -- -- Total ($1) ($1) ($1) Cash Available for Optional Prepayment ($230) $20 $50 Optional Prepayment (Revolver drawdown if positive amount) Revolver $230 ($20) ($50) Term Loan B -- -- -- Senior Notes -- -- -- Subordinated Notes -- -- -- Total $230 ($20) ($50) 13 PF Interest Expense ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified) Fiscal Year Ending December 31, 2021E 2022E 2023E LIBOR 0.500% 1.100% 1.500% Debt Balance Undrawn Revolver $185 $80 $115 Revolver 115 220 185 Term Loan B 60 59 59 Senior Notes 50 50 50
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Subordinated Notes 21 23 25 Interest Rate Schedule Type Rate Undrawn Revolver FIXED 0.350% 0.350% 0.350% 0.350% Revolver FLOAT L+2.000% 2.500% 3.100% 3.500% Term Loan B FLOAT L+3.000% 3.500% 4.100% 4.500% Senior Notes FIXED 7.000% 7.000% 7.000% 7.000% Subordinated Notes FIXED 8.500% 8.500% 8.500% 8.500% Interest Expense Undrawn Revolver $1 $0 $0 Revolver 3 7 6 Term Loan B 2 2 3 Senior Notes 4 4 4 Subordinated Notes 2 2 2 Total $11 $15 $15 PIK Interest Expense Years PIK Senior Notes 0 yr -- -- -- Subordinated Notes 3 yr 2 2 2 Total $2 $2 $2 Financing Fee Amortization Fee Term Revolver $2 5 yr $0 $0 $0 Term Loan B 1 6 yr 0 0 0 Senior Notes 1 8 yr 0 0 0 Subordinated Notes 1 10 yr 0 0 0 Total $1 $1 $1 Net Interest Expense Interest Expense $11 $15 $15 ( + ) Financing Fee Amortization 1 1 1 Total Interest Expense $11 $16 $16 ( - ) Interest Income (0) (0) (0) Net Interest Expense $11 $15 $16 Noncash Interest Expense PIK Interest Expense $2 $2 $2 ( + ) Financing Fee Amortization 1 1 1 Total Noncash Interest Expense $2 $3 $3 14 PF Credit Metrics ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified) Fiscal Year Ending December 31, PF 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E Outstanding Debt
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Senior Secured Debt $60 $289 $268 $218 Senior Debt 110 339 318 268 Total Debt 130 361 342 294 Line Items EBITDA $20 ($225) $98 $125 Cash Interest Expense 9 9 13 13 CapEx 48 38 24 43 Leverage Senior Secured Debt / EBITDA 3.0x (1.3x) 2.7x 1.7x Senior Debt / EBITDA 5.4 (1.5) 3.2 2.1 Total Debt / EBITDA 6.4 (1.6) 3.5 2.3 Interest Coverage EBITDA / Cash Interest Expense 2.2x (24.7x) 7.6x 9.6x EBITDA - CapEx / Cash Interest Expense (3.0) (28.8) 5.7 6.3 x Illustrative Returns ($ in millions, except where otherwise specified) Fiscal Year Ending December 31, PF 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E LTM Adj. EBITDA ($225) $98 $125 Total Debt $361 $342 $294 ( - ) Cash (25) (25) (25) Net Debt $336 $317 $269 Enterprise Value (Based on Multiple of LTM Adj. EBITDA) 4.0x ($899) $394 $501 4.5x (1,011) 443 564 5.0x (1,123) 492 627 5.5x (1,236) 541 689 6.0x (1,348) 590 752 6.5x (1,460) 639 815 7.0x (1,573) 689 877 7.5x (1,685) 738 940 8.0x (1,797) 787 1,003 Total Equity Value (Based on Multiple of LTM Adj. EBITDA)
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4.0x ($1,235) $76 $233 4.5x (1,347) 126 295 5.0x (1,459) 175 358 5.5x (1,572) 224 421 6.0x (1,684) 273 483 6.5x (1,796) 322 546 7.0x (1,909) 372 609 7.5x (2,021) 421 671 8.0x (2,133) 470 734 MoIC Investment (Based on Multiple of LTM Adj. EBITDA) $488 4.0x -2.53x 0.16x 0.48x 4.5x -2.76 0.26 0.61 5.0x -2.99 0.36 0.73 5.5x -3.22 0.46 0.86 6.0x -3.45 0.56 0.99 6.5x -3.68 0.66 1.12 7.0x -3.91 0.76 1.25 7.5x -4.14 0.86 1.38 8.0x -4.38 0.96 1.51 IRR (Based on Multiple of LTM Adj. EBITDA) Years: 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 4.0x (353.2%) (60.4%) (21.9%) 4.5x (376.3%) (49.3%) (15.4%) 5.0x (399.3%) (40.1%) (9.8%) 5.5x (422.3%) (32.2%) (4.8%) 6.0x (445.4%) (25.2%) (0.3%) 6.5x (468.4%) (18.7%) 3.8% 7.0x (491.5%) (12.7%) 7.7% 7.5x (514.5%) (7.1%) 11.2% 8.0x (537.5%) (1.8%) 14.6%
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3 Financing Assumptions Interest Interest Annual $20 Leverage Term Type Rate Amort. 6.0x Revolver NA 5 yr FLOAT L+2.000% NA $121 Term Loan B 3.0x 6 yr FLOAT L+3.000% 1.00% (271) Senior Notes 2.5x 8 yr FIXED 7.000% 0.00% 53 Subordinated Notes 1.0x 10 yr FIXED 8.500% 0.00% ($96) Revolver Commitment: $300 $1.75 Commitment Fee: 0.350% 195.2 $342 4 Debt Financing $ Leverage Fees - $ Revolver -- $2 Term Loan B 60 3.0x 1 $342 Senior Secured Debt $60 3.0x (1,275) Senior Notes 50 2.5x 1 1,172 Senior Debt $110 5.4x $238 Subordinated Notes 20 1.0x 1 Total $130 6.4x $4 1 1 2024A 2025A 2026A 2027A $1,082 $1,111 $1,141 $1,171 10.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%
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$136 $142 $146 $150 12.5% 12.8% 12.8% 12.8% ($51) ($53) ($54) ($56) $84 $89 $92 $94 7.8% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% ($15) ($14) ($11) ($8) $69 $75 $81 $87 ($21) ($23) ($24) ($26) $48 $53 $57 $61 4.5% 4.8% 5.0% 5.2% 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E $132 $132 $150 $154 $23 $23 $27 $27 $38 $38 $43 $44 $193 $193 $220 $226 $228 $228 $265 $272 $228 $228 $265 $272 ($35) ($35) ($45) ($46) ($1) ($1) $10 $1 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E $25 $25 $25 $25 132 132 150 154 23 23 27 27 38 38 43 44 21 21 21 21 $239 $239 $266 $272 896 896 896 896 238 238 238 238 32 32 32 32 86 86 85 85
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$1,492 $1,492 $1,518 $1,523 $228 $228 $265 $272 161 161 161 161 $389 $389 $426 $433 $242 $189 $122 $60 532 532 532 532 $1,163 $1,110 $1,079 $1,024 $329 $382 $438 $499 $1,492 $1,492 $1,518 $1,523 1 1 1 1 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E $48 $53 $57 $61 51 53 54 56 1 1 0 0 (1) (1) 10 1 $100 $106 $122 $118 (48) (53) (54) (56) $52 $53 $67 $62 $25 $25 $25 $25 52 53 67 62 (25) (25) (25) (25) $52 $53 $67 $62 ($1) ($1) ($1) ($1) (51) (52) (67) (61) $25 $25 $25 $25 $25 $25 $25 $25 $25 $25 $25 $25 0 0 0 0 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E
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$108 $56 -- -- $58 $57 $46 $0 $50 $50 $50 $34 $26 $26 $26 $26 $242 $189 $122 $60 185.9% 145.3% 93.5% 45.8% $192 $244 $300 $300 $52 $53 $67 $62 -- -- -- -- 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- (1) (1) (1) (1) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- ($1) ($1) ($1) ($1) $51 $52 $67 $61 ($51) ($52) ($56) -- -- -- (11) (45) -- -- -- (16) -- -- -- -- ($51) ($52) ($67) ($61) 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2.150% 2.500% 2.500% 2.500% $166 $218 $272 $300 134 82 28 -- 58 57 51 23 50 50 50 42
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26 26 26 26 0.350% 0.350% 0.350% 0.350% 4.150% 4.500% 4.500% 4.500% 5.150% 5.500% 5.500% 5.500% 7.000% 7.000% 7.000% 7.000% 8.500% 8.500% 8.500% 8.500% $1 $1 $1 $1 6 4 1 -- 3 3 3 1 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 $15 $13 $11 $7 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- $0 $0 -- -- 0 0 0 -- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 $1 $1 $0 $0 $15 $13 $11 $7 1 1 0 0 $15 $14 $11 $8 (0) (0) (0) (0) $15 $14 $11 $8 -- -- -- -- 1 1 0 0 $1 $1 $0 $0 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E
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$166 $113 $46 $0 216 163 96 34 242 189 122 60 $136 $142 $146 $150 15 13 11 7 48 53 54 56 1.2x 0.8x 0.3x 0.0x 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 1.8 1.3 0.8 0.4 9.2x 10.7x 13.6x 20.2x 5.9 6.7 8.5 12.7 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E $136 $142 $146 $150 $242 $189 $122 $60 (25) (25) (25) (25) $217 $164 $97 $35 $543 $569 $584 $600 611 640 657 675 679 711 730 750 746 782 803 825 814 853 876 900 882 925 949 975 950 996 1,022 1,050 1,018 1,067 1,095 1,125 1,086 1,138 1,168 1,199
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$326 $405 $488 $565 394 476 561 640 462 547 634 715 530 619 707 790 598 690 780 865 665 761 853 940 733 832 926 1,015 801 903 999 1,090 869 974 1,072 1,165 0.67x 0.83x 1.00x 1.16x 0.81 0.98 1.15 1.31 0.95 1.12 1.30 1.47 1.09 1.27 1.45 1.62 1.23 1.41 1.60 1.77 1.36 1.56 1.75 1.93 1.50 1.71 1.90 2.08 1.64 1.85 2.05 2.24 1.78 2.00 2.20 2.39 4 yr 5 yr 6 yr 7 yr (9.6%) (3.6%) 0.0% 2.1% (5.2%) (0.5%) 2.4% 4.0% (1.3%) 2.3% 4.5% 5.6% 2.1% 4.9% 6.4% 7.1% 5.2% 7.2% 8.1% 8.5% 8.1% 9.3% 9.8% 9.8% 10.7% 11.3% 11.3% 11.0% 13.2% 13.1% 12.7% 12.2% 15.5% 14.8% 14.0% 13.3%
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Financing Years PIK Fees NA 0.500% NA 1.250% 0 yr 2.000% 3 yr 2.500%
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