Math451 Unit 4 Questions

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Feb 20, 2024

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Math451 Unit 4 Questions A company is considering using a survey company that offers some sample information which may not be very accurate for better decision making for a value of $3,000 in this example. They have provided the following data for all alternatives that are consider here. Question 1 What is the revised probability of having the median demand (MD) for a positive response (PS)? P(MD|PS) = 0.1588 P(MD|PS) = 28.30% P(MD|PS) = 60% P(MD|PS) = 0.0473 Solution The correct answer is: P(MD|PS) = 28.30% Correct Hide solution Question 2 Suppose that your friend has a loaded coin that comes up heads 80% of the time and another coin that looks just like the weighted one but is fair. Your friend pulls a coin out of his pocket and offers you a bet where he gets $1 if the heads side appears. Your estimate of the probability that he has pulled the loaded coin is 90%. You are a bit uncomfortable with this, and insist on testing the coin. You flip it 5 times, and the heads side comes up once. Given this new information, how likely is it that you have the fair coin? Express your answer as a percentage rounded off to the nearest whole number. Hint: You can use =BINOM.DIST() in Excel to compute the probabilities of the coin flips. 76% 73% 81% 60%

Solution The correct answer is 73% Correct Hide solution A company is considering using a survey company that offers some sample information which may not be very accurate for better decision making for a value of $3,000 in this example. They have provided the following data for all alternatives that are consider here. Question 3 What is the probability of having a positive response (PS)? P(PS) = 1 P(PS) = 52.90% P(PS) = 47.10% P(PS) = 0 Solution The correct answer is: P(PS) = 52.90% Correct Hide solution A company is considering using a survey company that offers some sample information which may not be very accurate for better decision making for a value of $3,000 in this example. They have provided the following data for all alternatives that are consider here. Question 4 What is the probability of having a negative response (NS)? P(PS) = 52.90% P(PS) = 0 P(NS) = 47.10% P(PS) = 1

Solution The correct answer is: P(NS) = 47.10% Correct Hide solution Question 5 Suppose that your friend has a loaded coin that comes up heads 80% of the time and another coin that looks just like the weighted one but is fair. Your friend pulls a coin at random out of his pocket and offers you a bet where he gets $1 if the heads side appears. You are a bit uncomfortable with this and insist on testing the coin. You flip it 5 times, and the heads side comes up once. Given this new information, how likely is it that you have the fair coin? Express your answer as a percentage. Hint: You can use =BINOM.DIST() in Excel to compute the probabilities of the coin flips. 74% 96% 82% 93% Solution The correct answer is 96% Correct Hide solution A company is considering using a survey company that offers some sample information which may not be very accurate for better decision making for a value of $3,000 in this example. They have provided the following data for all alternatives that are consider here. Question 6 What is the revised probability of having the median demand (MD) for a negative response (NS)? P(MD|NS) = 0.2380 P(MD|NS) = 0.0340 P(MD|NS) = 40%

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P(MD|NS) = 0.3715 Solution The correct answer is: P(MD|NS) = 0.2380 Correct Hide solution Question 7 Suppose that your friend has a loaded coin that comes up heads 70% of the time and another coin that looks just like the weighted one but is fair. Your friend pulls a coin at random out of his pocket and offers you a bet where he gets $1 if the heads side appears. How much must you get for a tail for this bet to be fair? $1.25 $1.00 $1.40 $1.50 Solution The correct answer is $1.50 Correct Hide solution Question 8 Suppose that your friend has a loaded coin that comes up heads 70% of the time and another coin that looks just like the weighted one but is fair. Your friend pulls a coin at random out of his pocket and offers you a bet where he gets $1 if the heads side appears. You are a bit uncomfortable with this and insist on testing the coin. You flip it 10 times, and heads come up 4 times. Given this new information, how likely is it that you have the fair coin? Round your answer off to the nearest thousandth. Hint: You can use =BINOM.DIST() in Excel to compute the probabilities of the coin flips. 0.503 0.302 0.759 0.848 Solution

The correct answer is 0.848 Correct Hide solution

Math451 Unit 4 Questions

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