Assignment 1
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School
Thompson Rivers University *
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Course
3320
Subject
Management
Date
Feb 20, 2024
Type
Pages
4
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Page 1
of 4
Assignment 1 Supply Chain Management – SCMN 3320 Important instructions: Due: Sunday 28
th
January (11:59pm) – Submission through Moodle. No extension will be granted
. Only one group member should submit
the assignment. The assignment should be submitted as one PDF File
. The work should be typed, not handwritten.
In professional roles, you are unlikely to submit and present handwritten reports.
Maintain 4 decimal places in your answers unless otherwise stated. You can use Excel to solve the forecasting problems and paste the Excel output in your submission file. The format (tables) should be clear to understand. Unclear work will not be marked. Plagiarism is a serious academic misconduct and will result in course failure. It is expected that students understand what counts as plagiarism. Student 1) Name: Sangeetha Manikantan
ID: T00704411
Page 2
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Problem 1: A shopping cart manufacturer has recently purchased a new equipment that reduces the labour component in production. Prior to buying the new equipment, the company used five workers, who, together, produced an average of 95 carts per hour. Around 5% of this output used to get rejected. Labour cost was $22 per worker per hour and machine cost was $40 per hour. With the new equipment, it was possible to transfer one of the workers to another department and the rejections reduced to 0. Machine cost increased by $10 per hour while output increased by five carts per hour to 100. a.
Calculate labor productivity before and after the new equipment induction. Use carts per worker per hour as the measure of labor productivity.(2 Marks) Effective output = 95 carts per hour x (1-0.05) = 95 x 0.95 = 90.25 carts per hour b.
Calculate the multi-factor productivity before and after the new equipment. Use carts per dollar (labor plus machine) as the measure. (2 Marks) c.
Find the productivity growth according to the two measures (
labor and multifactor
). Which measure do you believe is more appropriate
for the analysis of the growth and why? (2; 2; 2 Marks) Since we are concerned about the reduction in the labour component in production as explained in the first sentence of the question. It is ideal to use labour productivity in the scenario. The change from 18.05 carts/hour/worker to 25 carts/hour/workers shows the improvement in the labour productivity. Labour Productivity Before =
90.25 carts per hour =
18.05 carts per worker/hr
5 workers Labour Productivity After =
100 carts per hour =
25 carts per worker/hr
4 workers
Multi-factor Productivity Before =
90.25 carts per hour =
0.6016 carts per dollar
(5 x 22) +(40)
Multi-factor Productivity After =
100 carts per hour =
0.7246 carts per dollar
(4 x 22) +(50)
Labour Productivity Growth =
25-18.05
= 0.3850 or 38.50%
18.05
Multi-factor Productivity Growth =
0.7246-0.6016 = 0.2044 or 20.44%
0.6016
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Problem 2
: Quarterly demand of an aircraft spare part during the last three years (in sequence) is, 225, 260, 305, 125, 250, 170, 190, 225, 260, 305, 125, and 190. Determine the forecasts for periods 3 to 13 using 2 period moving averages (MA-2) and Exponential smoothing with α = 0.2 (i.e. ES (0.2)). For ES (0.2) calculations, assume that the forecast for period 2 was 225 (the naïve forecast). Compare MAD and MAPE for the forecasts from period 3 to 12
. Which forecasting method has been more accurate? (Report the error and percentage error values (not calculations) used to find MAD and MAPE.) (8 Marks) The Exponential Smoothing method with an alpha of 0.2 gives us smaller errors (56.8) and percentage errors (31.8161%) compared to the 2-period Moving Averages method. Smaller errors mean it's closer to the actual demand values. So, using Exponential Smoothing at 0.2 alpha seems to be better for predicting how many aircraft spare parts will be needed in the future in this situation. Problem 3
: TRU wants to determine the use of the campus’s east entrance over the weekdays to estimate the potential disruption that a planned development can cause during the next week. Considering the following data, determine the estimates for the number of cars that will seek the use of the east entrance on each working day of week 7. Apply the annual averages method. Number of cars using the east entrance (in hundreds) Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Monday 15.2 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.2 17.1 Tuesday 11.2 10.5 12.1 12.8 12.8 12.9 Wednesday 13.2 14.0 14.5 14.9 15 15.1 Thursday 16.3 16.6 16.9 16.6 16.6 16.5 Friday 21.5 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.4 23.5 (No need to show the calculations. You can directly paste the output from Excel file. Tables and graph should be similar to the ones in the Excel file used for in-class demonstration.) (10 Marks) Year
Quarter
Period
Observed Demand
Forecast- MA(2)
Forecast- ES (0.2)
MAD - MA(2)
MAPE - MA(2)
MAD - ES (0.2)
MAPE - ES (0.2)
1.0
1.0
225.0
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.0
2.0
260.0
-
225.0000
-
-
35.0000
13.4615%
3.0
3.0
305.0
242.5
232.0000
62.5
20.4918%
73.0000 23.9344%
4.0
4.0
125.0
282.5
246.6000
157.5
126.0000% 121.6000 97.2800%
1.0
5.0
250.0
215.0
222.2800
35.0
14.0000%
27.7200 11.0880%
2.0
6.0
170.0
187.5
227.8240
17.5
10.2941%
57.8240 34.0141%
3.0
7.0
190.0
210.0
216.2592
20.0
10.5263%
26.2592 13.8206%
4.0
8.0
225.0
180.0
211.0074
45.0
20.0000%
13.9926
6.2190%
1.0
9.0
260.0
207.5
213.8059
52.5
20.1923%
46.1941 17.7670%
2.0
10.0
305.0
242.5
223.0447
62.5
20.4918%
81.9553 26.8706%
3.0
11.0
125.0
282.5
239.4358
157.5
126.0000% 114.4358 91.5486%
4.0
12.0
190.0
215.0
216.5486
25.0
13.1579%
26.5486 13.9730%
4.0
1.0
13.0
-
157.5
211.2389
-
-
-
-
60.9
35.8742%
56.8
31.8161%
1.0
2.0
3.0
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Page 4
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Forecast for week 7 0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Week 1
Week 1 Ratio
Week 2
Week 2 Ratio
Week 3
Week 3 Ratio
Week 4
Week 4 Ratio
Week 5
Week 5 Ratio
Week 6
Week 6 Ratio
Monday
15.20
0.98
16.30
1.02
16.60
1.00
17.10
1.01
17.20
1.01
17.10
1.00
Tuesday
11.20
0.72
10.50
0.66
12.10
0.73
12.80
0.76
12.80
0.75
12.90
0.76
Wednesday
13.20
0.85
14.00
0.88
14.50
0.87
14.90
0.88
15.00
0.88
15.10
0.89
Thursday
16.30
1.05
16.60
1.04
16.90
1.02
16.60
0.98
16.60
0.98
16.50
0.97
Friday
21.50
1.39
22.50
1.41
22.90
1.38
23.30
1.38
23.40
1.38
23.50
1.38
Total
77.40
79.90
83.00
84.70
85.00
85.10
Average
15.48
15.98
16.60
16.94
17.00
17.02
1.0059
Average Ratio
1.0046
0.7293
0.8752
1.3848
y = 1.5857x + 76.967
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Week
Week 1
77.4000
Week 2
79.9000
Week 3
83.0000
Week 4
84.7000
Week 5
85.0000
Week 6
85.1000
Week 7
88.0669
17.6134
<- Avg
No of cars using EE
Monday
17.6951
Tuesday
12.8460
Wednesday
15.4159
Thursday
17.7181
Friday
24.3918
Week 7
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