History of Climate Change

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Dec 6, 2023

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Milestone Three: History and Potential Impacts of Climate Change Mary Allyson Wannamaker Southern New Hampshire University ENV-305 November 25, 2023

I. History of Climate Change a. Climatic changes have always occurred on Earth and, up until around 50 years ago, followed a relatively predictable and life-sustaining pattern. The enhanced greenhouse effect since the industrial revolution due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has led to rates of global temperature increase not seen in many millennia. Biological, chemical, and geological evidence provide critical insight and information about recent and ancient climatic fluctuations. The observed warming trends are caused by excess GHG getting trapped in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide has increased by 40% since 1750 and the rate at which it is increasing had been faster than ever before in the past 10 years (Johnson et al., 2023). This warming has caused rapid and widespread changes to the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and biosphere (climate.nasa.gov, 2023). Satellites that orbit the earth and other modern technologies have allowed scientists to gather more information about the current climate status than ever before. Many of these instrument's focus on various greenhouse gases and how their presence and concentration affect the movement of infrared radiation in the atmosphere. b. There have been many climate changes since the formation of the earth. During the Mesozoic Era 100 million years ago (the age of the dinosaurs) the earth had little to no ice because it was in a hothouse state. A true “Hothouse Earth” occurs when carbon dioxide levels reach about 800 ppm – around twice as much as we currently

have (Zalasiewicz et al., 2022). The Pliocene Epoch (3 million years ago) was the last time carbon dioxide levels reached 400 ppm, which is close to current levels. Evidence of these atmospheric conditions and changes throughout history can be measured in many ways. One geologic method uses ice cores drilled from polar caps, which are extracted so that the many layers of ice can be examined. These layers contain atmospheric condition information (such as temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations) that date back thousands of years. Sediment cores are taken from lakes and other bodies of water and provide information through layers of extracted sediment. The composition and arrangement of sediment layers are then examined similarly to ice core layers. These proxy indicators act much like a “fingerprint” of something in the past. c. By reconstructing records of paleoclimate through various proxy indicators we are provided with valuable insight to help predict potential future warming and cooling trends, changes in sea level, and the possible rate and magnitude of changes. Paleoclimate data in conjunction with climate modelling experiments can provide powerful methods to better understand the feedback processes that drive abrupt and gradual changes in the climate (USGS.gov, 2022). II. Potential Impact of Climate Change d. Climate change has far-reaching and drastic consequences that will affect all aspects of life on earth. Ecosystems, societies, and economies are facing the greatest global existential threat due to climate change. i. As global temperatures climb, widespread shifts in weather patterns are occurring more frequently and unpredictably. Extreme weather events such as hurricanes, drought, and

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flooding are happening more often and with greater intensity (Lindwall, 2022). Enhanced greenhouse effect is driving these rising temperatures and anthropogenic activity is the primary cause. Temperatures in South Carolina (where I live) have risen 1° F since the 20 th century began, which is lower than the contiguous United States (Runkle et al., 2022). Future projections indicate historically unprecedented warming in South Carolina in the next century if emissions continue to rise at the current rate. Warm season droughts and wildfire occurrence and severity are becoming more common in South Carolina. ii. Since major fossil fuel extraction began in the 1800s the planet has warmed by 1.1° C and is now expected to warm by 1.5° C (Borunda, 2023). The burning of fossil fuels has driven climate change and is now causing health issues. Around 2 million people die each year globally due to long-term exposure to fine particulates from burning coal, gas, and other types of fuel (Borunda, 2023). The use of fossil fuels has significant costs to not only health, but to the environment, climate, and economy. The ocean absorbs at least a quarter of the carbon dioxide emitted by fossil fuels which changes its chemistry. Ocean acidity has increased by 30% over the past 150 years, which has caused severe harm to marine life and poses a significant threat to coral reefs, fishing industries, tourism, and the economy (Bertrand, 2021). Air pollution, ocean pollution, plastic pollution, and oil spills are only a few of the major repercussions we are facing due to fossil fuel extraction, production, transport, and usage across the board. iii. Nuclear power is the second largest clean energy source after hydropower. Nuclear power is fueled by uranium which must first be mined and refined, and this process does emit CO2. Additionally, the construction of nuclear power plants is a huge operation that is generally powered by fossil fuel usage, again adding to CO2 emissions. Nuclear plants

themselves do not produce air pollution or carbon dioxide while they are operating, making their carbon footprint nearly as low as renewable energy (Cho et al., 2020). Waste disposal is one of the largest problems facing nuclear power production – there is simply no viable way to dispose of nuclear waste, which is incredibly dangerous and will remain radioactive for tens of thousands of years (Cho et al., 2020). e. Climate change scenarios are based on climate projection models created to predict future outcomes depending on various emissions scenarios. A best-case scenario would include rapid reductions in GHG emissions which would lead to less global warming and minimal disruption to ecosystems, societies, and reduced sea level rise from melting ice caps. In a moderate scenario reduction in emissions would be gradual, hopefully resulting in manageable but still significant conditions. Some adaptations would be implemented in a moderate scenario, but localized impacts would still be of consequence. A worst-case scenario would mean continued high level emissions and pollution increases, leading to catastrophic and extreme weather events, entire species dying out, and population displacement as ocean levels continue rising. f. Positive consequences would include clean energy technologies and innovations for carbon catching that would help to mitigate climate change impacts. Transitioning to renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and hydropower would significantly reduce GHG emissions and air pollution. Uncertainties, particularly at a regional level, can be quite large and varied. Unpredictable seasonal changes, rainfall, volcanic activity, etc. could occur at any given time and must be carefully considered. Negative consequences of not taking action to mitigate climate change could include

many disastrous events. Extreme weather events such as flooding, hurricanes, tornados, drought, wildfires, and more would be likely to increase if worst case scenarios come to fruition. Food security would be at risk and entire populations would be displaced. Agriculture, marine life, and biodiversity loss would be widespread. It is a global imperative to make climate action an urgent necessity. Adopting sustainable practices and policies is the best way to prepare for uncertainties ahead. Bertrand, S. (2021). Fact sheet: Climate, environmental, and health impacts of fossil fuels (2021) . EESI. https://www.eesi.org/papers/view/fact-sheet-climate-environmental-and- health-impacts-of-fossil-fuels-2021 Borunda, A. (2023, November 14). Climate change, fossil fuels hurting people’s health, says New Global Report . NPR. https://www.npr.org/2023/11/14/1211888762/climate-change- fossil-fuels-hurting-peoples-health-says-new-global-report Cho, R., Hopf, J. E., Klein, W., Zajdel, M., Stanton, E., Boespflug, J.-P., kefauver, K., Richardson, J., & Burgess, J. (2021, January 21). The state of nuclear energy today - and what lies ahead . State of the Planet. https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2020/11/23/nuclear- power-today-future/ Johnson, C., Affolter, M., Inkenbrandt, P., & Mosher, C. (2023, November 6). 15.3: Evidence of recent climate change . Geosciences LibreTexts. https://geo.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Geology/Book

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%3A_An_Introduction_to_Geology_(Johnson_Affolter_Inkenbrandt_and_Mosher)/15%3 A_Global_Climate_Change/15.03%3A_Evidence_of_Recent_Climate_Change Lindwall, C. (2022, October 24). What are the effects of climate change? . Effects of Climate Change - Impacts and Examples. https://www.nrdc.org/stories/what-are-effects-climate- change#weather Runkle, J., K.E. Kunkel, L.E. Stevens, R. Frankson, B.C. Stewart, W. Sweet, and S. Rayne, 2022: South Carolina State Climate Summary 2022 . NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150-SC. NOAA/NESDIS, Silver Spring, MD, 5 pp. Zalasiewicz , J., Williams , M., & Hearing , T. (2022, November 3). Hothouse earth: Our planet has been here before – here’s what it looked like . The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/hothouse-earth-our-planet-has-been-here-before-heres-what-it- looked-like-101413 USGS.gov. (2022, January 21). Lessons from the Past, Roadmap for the Future . Paleoclimate Research | U.S. Geological Survey. https://www.usgs.gov/programs/climate-research-and- development-program/science/paleoclimate-research#overview

History of Climate Change

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