Anthony King. M6.3 Assignment.

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Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University *

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Dec 6, 2023

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1 Module 6.3: Decision Analysis in Systems Engineering Anthony King College of Aeronautics, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University SYSE 515: Math Applications in Systems Engineering Federica Robinson-Bryant Instructor November 25, 2023

2 Module 6.3: Decision Analysis in Systems Engineering Decision analysis, a normative facet of decision-making, acts as a crucial tool in the decision-making process. It encompasses six key elements. Firstly, decision makers and stakeholders are pivotal, as decisions impact them directly. The second element involves framing the decision by identifying the problem, perspectives, and decision boundaries. Thirdly, a viable set of alternatives must be established for effective decision-making. The preferences of decision makers and stakeholders constitute the fourth element, emphasizing values and trade-offs. The fifth element involves information capturing knowledge and uncertainties, with probability representing uncertainty. The often overlooked sixth element is the decision logic or choice criterion, where rational decision-making norms suggest choosing the alternative with the highest expected utility. Despite efforts in other elements, arbitrary choice criteria can lead to poor decision outcomes. The quality of a decision relies on the analysis and thought process, not just the outcome (Abbas, 2016). Figure 1 Six Elements of a Decision Note. Perspectives on the Use of Decision Analysis in Systems Engineering: Workshop Summary. 2016. ( https://ieeexplore-ieee-org.ezproxy.libproxy.db.erau.edu/document/7490551 )

3 Decision analysis methods can be applied to systems engineering problems to support the decision-making process by providing a structured framework for evaluating alternatives, assessing uncertainties, and identifying the optimal course of action. These methods help in analyzing complex systems and making informed decisions based on available information and preferences (Amekudzi, Khisty, & Mohammadi, 2012). The main takeaway from the article is that decision analysis methods provide a systematic approach to deal with uncertainties, conflicting objectives, and complex decision problems in systems engineering. These methods help in clarifying the problem, identifying objectives, evaluating alternatives, and incorporating preferences and uncertainties into the decision-making process (Abbas, 2016). One of the decision analysis tools introduced in the course is the Decision Tree Analysis. This approach involves representing decisions and their possible consequences in a tree-like structure, where each branch represents an alternative and its associated outcomes. Decision Tree Analysis allows for quantifying probabilities and values for each outcome and provides a visual representation of the decision problem (Amekudzi, Khisty, & Mohammadi, 2012). To demonstrate the application of Decision Tree Analysis in systems engineering, we should consider a problem in the context of developing a new product. The problem is to determine whether to invest in developing a new feature for the product or not. The decision to invest involves uncertainties such as market demand, development costs, and potential revenue. Why 1: Why should we invest in developing the new feature? The new feature has the potential to attract more customers and increase market share. Why 2: Why would the new feature attract more customers? The new feature addresses a specific customer need that is currently unmet by competitors.

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4 Why 3: Why is addressing this specific customer need important? Market research indicates that there is a significant demand for a product with this feature. Why 4: Why is there significant demand for this feature? Customers are looking for a more efficient and user-friendly solution to the problem the feature addresses. Why 5: Why are customers seeking a more efficient and user-friendly solution? Existing solutions in the market are cumbersome and do not effectively meet the customers' requirements. The root cause would be that existing solutions in the market are cumbersome and do not effectively meet the customers' requirements. The identified root cause indicates that the problem lies in the current solutions available in the market. By addressing this root cause, the decision to invest in developing the new feature becomes more justified.

5 References Abbas, A. (2016). Perspectives on the Use of Decision Analysis in Systems Engineering: Workshop Summary . IEEE. https://ieeexplore-ieee- org.ezproxy.libproxy.db.erau.edu/document/7490551/citations?tabFilter=papers#citations Amekudzi, A., Khisty, C., & Mohammadi, J. (2012). Systems Engineering with Economics, Probability, and Statistics (2 nd ed.). J. Ross Publishing.

Anthony King. M6.3 Assignment.

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